Wales Cymru Spring Weather Discussion Thread

[Marcus_surfer]

It's been a lovely day here, but back to normal now with rain pushing in from the southwest. Breezy conditions now too.

[keithlucky]

A cold spell of sorts certainly on for next week, which could come in the following forms:

1. Snow early in the week followed by a bitterly cold east/ SE flow.
2. Battleground UK between a Scandi high and deep Atlantic low giving heavy snowfall in parts, thereafter rather cold but with a thaw.
3. A short- lived cold (and dry?) snap early in the week before rather mild and unsettled weather returns.

One thing, a very mild start to February with the snowdrops now coming into bloom. However it was -4c here this morning.

Very cold air over germany at the weekend progressing westwards looks like we heading back into winter with jack frost having one last Hoorah.With frontal attacks from the swest strong possibility of a few battle ground senerios over wales ,looks pretty exciting weather coming up next week.

Edited February 8, 2011 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

Far from certain yet though if the very cold air makes it over the N Sea Keith, which is why I provided the other possibilities. In fact the probability is stronger that we do not see it turn very cold at all, and are left in between air masses in rather cold to cold conditions with just a possibility of snow for a while.

[J10]

A sunny and frosty start here today, but very foggy in Newport until midday, clouded over later, and drizzly back at home now.

But it really is impossible to tell in a way today's models are a downgrade, but slight changes could easily see a major battleground rain sleet snow event with an extremely good alignment to the front SE/NW. IMO this is currently more likely than a full blown easterly. but it is impossible to say for certain.

[welshgritter]

Afternoon All,

As I havent got a clue how to look at maps/radar etc (admitted). How are the signs of cold @ the moment. Extended forecasts say one thing but you never know.

I know many of you are always studying data etc........hows is it all. If we do get it - how long is it likely to last? Despite this period of cold, is there likely to be anymore?? Many are saying snow in March - is there anything behind this?

Cheers

Your local Welsh Gritting Machine

[andymusic]

Afternoon All,

As I havent got a clue how to look at maps/radar etc (admitted). How are the signs of cold @ the moment. Extended forecasts say one thing but you never know.

I know many of you are always studying data etc........hows is it all. If we do get it - how long is it likely to last? Despite this period of cold, is there likely to be anymore?? Many are saying snow in March - is there anything behind this?

Cheers

Your local Welsh Gritting Machine

The cold weather is definitely on the return come Sunday night into Monday - and through next week there will be a number of marginal snow/sleet opportunities it seems - possible frosts overnight for you also down to -3 at times - so it seems you'll be getting some work next week mate

[welshgritter]

Hi Andy,

Good News. Cheers for the info. I have a trade fair stall in the Liberty Stadium tomorrow so im glad its not tomorrow anyway.

Is this a short stint? couple of days? Do you think is the last of it? People keep saying the end of February - but im none the wiser? Does seem very mild at the moment, very mild. Cant complain considering the December and January we have just had, but this weather is crazy. Its more like autumn at the moment rather than winter? All the seasons are all over the place. Crazy........

Another expression that people seem to say is "Whatever America gets, we get 3 weeks later". I cant see us getting the extreme weather they are getting over there - but do you think we might get a tailend of something? Would be fun...... cartch everyone by surprise

Cheers, Carl

[andymusic]

Hi Andy,

Good News. Cheers for the info. I have a trade fair stall in the Liberty Stadium tomorrow so im glad its not tomorrow anyway.

Is this a short stint? couple of days? Do you think is the last of it? People keep saying the end of February - but im none the wiser? Does seem very mild at the moment, very mild. Cant complain considering the December and January we have just had, but this weather is crazy. Its more like autumn at the moment rather than winter? All the seasons are all over the place. Crazy........

Another expression that people seem to say is "Whatever America gets, we get 3 weeks later". I cant see us getting the extreme weather they are getting over there - but do you think we might get a tailend of something? Would be fun...... cartch everyone by surprise

Cheers, Carl

I used to believe in that saying too about America, but alas on closer inspection it never really happens like that, it's just a coincidence if it does, America gave us Mcdonalds but they can't quite give us 4ft snow drifts, not yet anyway

Seems the cooler/cold weather will be in for most of next week, any longer than that I can't tell at the moment - models are all over the place really as they are not sure with this "battleground" scenario forming between the scandi high pressure and Atlantic steamroller - who is finally gonna win out - but also fighting over the actual detail - twoing and froing of the cold verses mild - so it'll be an interesting week - we could be getting up to snow on the ground, although may be not - but it certainly looks like it'll be more winter like - for at least a week anyway

Derek also mentioned "hill snow" for sunday on his lunchtime forecast

Edited February 9, 2011 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

I used to believe in that saying too about America, but alas on closer inspection it never really happens like that, it's just a coincidence if it does, America gave us Mcdonalds but they can't quite give us 4ft snow drifts, not yet anyway

Seems the cooler/cold weather will be in for most of next week, any longer than that I can't tell at the moment - models are all over the place really as they are not sure with this "battleground" scenario forming between the scandi high pressure and Atlantic steamroller - who is finally gonna win out - but also fighting over the actual detail - twoing and froing of the cold verses mild - so it'll be an interesting week - we could be getting up to snow on the ground, although may be not - but it certainly looks like it'll be more winter like - for at least a week anyway

Derek also mentioned "hill snow" for sunday on his lunchtime forecast

Yes andy the cold pool over europe a bit further west on ecm a bit further west and snow for wales rather than east uk at the moment..

[keithlucky]

Yes andy the cold pool over europe a bit further west on ecm a bit further west and snow for wales rather than east uk at the moment..Been saying for a while HERE COMING BACK WITH A BANG WINTER ALL ABOARD !

[TonyH]

Or perhaps with more of a whimper. Option 3 looks on this morning whereas last night option 1 was indeed possible! Is next week resolved?

[andymusic]

Latest Joe B info on his blog - no cold immediately - in other words this easterly that is attempting to move across the UK looks like it won't get here - but he is suggesting the cold will return for one last shot in March

Joe B quote

"In the meantime, winter can't get back into the northwest...for a while. There is an old adage among weather people from the generation before me that here in the states.. what happens in December, the winter will remember. I have never tested that in northwest Europe, but now that my point has been made about the fact that this was not going to be the most brutal WINTER in 100 years, that we would be much less cold in January and February, let me say that there is pretty good chance we will have a colder than normal March in the northwest."

"Northwest" being the UK and Ireland by the way

[TonyH]

Wonder why JB still gets attention?

Cold spells in March are pretty regular occurrences as with temporary snow falls.

At least he is not as poor at forecasting as Piers Corbyn!

Edited February 10, 2011 by Tonyh

[andymusic]

Wonder why JB still gets attention?

Cold spells in March are pretty regular occurrences as with temporary snow falls.

At least he is not as poor at forecasting as Piers Corbyn!

definitely not - he was going on about the retreat of the cold for jan and february for us for sometime before xmas - so a point to Joe

Edited February 10, 2011 by andymusic

[J10]

And just when the fat lady was starting to sing about the chance of an easterly and deep cold, the ECM keeps us interested again.

This is not resolved by a long way. Unfortunately I'd still say that ECM is along shot, but at least it is possible.

My guess is that a cold quiet spell of weather is the most likely, probably with some frost.

[soupsurfer7]

Hoping for a cold spell soon, the daffodils are poking through in Aberystwyth.

[ourson]

Am I reading this right?

Models showing the possibility of a cold spell with lots of lovely snow and stuff like that, unfortunately in the depths of FI nearly a fortnight away. Now it looks far less likely and it's a case of SSDD. Joe B is relying on a US-based saying from his grandmother and predicting a possible cold snap in march based on his rando application of his grandmothers saying to european weather.

Ah well. Was hoping for a couple of snowdays next week personally. Indescript (boring) instead?

Edited February 10, 2011 by JACKONE

[andymusic]

Am I reading this right?

Models showing the possibility of a cold spell with lots of lovely snow and stuff like that, unfortunately in the depths of FI nearly a fortnight away. Now it looks far less likely and it's a case of SSDD. Joe B is relying on a US-based saying from his grandmother and predicting a possible cold snap in march based on his rando application of his grandmothers saying to european weather.

Ah well. Was hoping for a couple of snowdays next week personally. Indescript (boring) instead?

sorry ourson, but Joe B has been going on about the fact that winter would dissappear on us in jan and Feb from before xmas after our mammouth December so I guess he's been right again - who knows - may be we'll finish the winter in march with a final cold spell of note - but this easterly is looking awful shakey - just not quite getting to our shores I think - but it's gonna be a close call

[J10]

sorry ourson, but Joe B has been going on about the fact that winter would dissappear on us in jan and Feb from before xmas after our mammouth December so I guess he's been right again - who knows - may be we'll finish the winter in march with a final cold spell of note - but this easterly is looking awful shakey - just not quite getting to our shores I think - but it's gonna be a close call

As I said on the other thread, who cares what Joe B says, he got December wrong for a start, not to mention many years in the past, which he also called wrong.

Across the forum as a whole there is very little credence given to Joe B.

[keithlucky]

Pretty exciting weather ahead with weather getting colder with plenty of chances of snow next week, ecm bom both in agreement WINTER is back.

Edited February 10, 2011 by keithlucky

[Daniel Miller]

Pretty exciting weather ahead with weather getting colder with plenty of chances of snow next week, ecm bom both in agreement WINTER is back.

Would we be talking November snow amounts?

[andymusic]

GFS 18z - he say NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! - Atlantic rushes through like a freight train - ECM only one good run today + ensembles - models flipping back and forth - we'll all be here again tomorrow to see if things can firm up a bit - but still a no mans - maybe snow maybe not - LAND

Edited February 10, 2011 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

GFS 18z - he say NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! - Atlantic rushes through like a freight train - ECM only one good run today + ensembles - models flipping back and forth - we'll all be here again tomorrow to see if things can firm up a bit - but still a no mans - maybe snow maybe not - LAND

Thats why its called a pub run andy

Would we be talking November snow amounts?

To early to say but plenty of promise week ahead just need the gfs to play ball which it will, plenty of chances in the week ahead.The met are confident of next week becoming cold ,they pretty good over 7days ahead.

Edited February 10, 2011 by keithlucky

[welshgritter]

Is It ? Isn't it..............? Im on the edge of my seat here...........

Will it be busy for me? Wont it be busy for me?

This forum is hotting up again - I wonder how next week will REALLY turn out?

I am opimistic of a final flurry in March, in view of the events in Australia and America, I dont think our winter is over - I think we will get something.....and catch us all by surprise!

[andymusic]

Thats why its called a pub run andy

To early to say but plenty of promise week ahead just need the gfs to play ball which it will, plenty of chances in the week ahead.The met are confident of next week becoming cold ,they pretty good over 7days ahead.

I'm afraid the GFS 00z has also gone the same way - Atlantic steaming in - but ECM ain't backing down neither - a complete stalemate - who is gonna back down I wonder - cold/mild - there will be a few frosts next week though