Wales Cymru Spring Weather Discussion Thread

[TonyH]

With all the debate regarding a possible return of Winter, the first half of February is shaping up very mild and Springlike, with the birds encouraged into song, Snowdrops blooming and the Daffs poking through.

Average max above 10c and min above 4c to date here. Today looks like being the mildest, currently on 11.3c. In fact no day has yet failed to reach 9c!

[keithlucky]

Nice pool of cold air moving into wales sunday night possible 2 to 5cms of snow locally into monday,(5CMS over andys house)

[Bonjangle]

Nice pool of cold air moving into wales sunday night possible 2 to 5cms of snow locally into monday,(5CMS over andys house)

sounds good Keith ,but which part of wales mate

[DeepSnow]

This is what metoffice say for monday -

Widespread icy surfaces are expected during Sunday night and Monday morning across Northern Ireland, western Scotland, much of Wales and parts of western England. Wintry showers are also expected with a risk of 2 to 5 cm of snow locally, mainly above 200 metres.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/wl_forecast_warnings.html

[keithlucky]

sounds good Keith ,but which part of wales mate

West facing higher ground but if the precipation is heavy enough anybody can get a covering.

[Bonjangle]

West facing higher ground but if the precipation is heavy enough anybody can get a covering.

Sounds good to me ,fingers crossed then .... thanks Keith

[Cymro]

Looks better for here then, let's just see but to ategu on what Tonyh said a very mild a murkey first half of february

[andymusic]

Looking clear overnight sunday into monday right now - so it'll probably be just a frost - sorry to sound so negative - but we have lost this one aswell - Atlantic will be steaming in and robbing us of the cold once again! - we had our fun in December - Joe B is right again - but he has given us some slight comfort - that may be - just may be - we may still get some cold in March - before the sun finally gets too high in the sky and I can finally put the top down on my convertible!

Sunday midnight

Monday morning

The fat lady is about to sing over this winter (and being in the music game I know some fat ladies who sing)

Edited February 11, 2011 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Looking clear overnight sunday into monday right now - so it'll probably be just a frost - sorry to sound so negative - but we have lost this one aswell - Atlantic will be steaming in and robbing us of the cold once again! - we had our fun in December - Joe B is right again - but he has given us some slight comfort - that may be - just may be - we may still get some cold in March - before the sun finally gets too high in the sky and I can finally put the top down on my convertible!

Sunday midnight

Monday morning

The fat lady is about to sing over this winter (and being in the music game I know some fat ladies who sing)

Sorry andy thats a load of rubbish traditionally early march is a a snowy period for you to a statement like that is out of character .

[andymusic]

Sorry andy thats a load of rubbish traditionally early march is a a snowy period for you to a statement like that is out of character .

I know it sounds a bit strange me coming out with all this winter is over nonsense as I normally witter on about snow snow snow - but you can't witter on about snow snow snow when there ain't gonna be any surely - but you can't help think - reading the models for the past month and a half - the severe cold/snow has just "melted" away - we may get some cold snow/snow showers in March/April - but severe cold is now 99% off the menu

PS:- Traditionally February has us in the snowfields also - but looks at what's happening right now - Joe B was going on about in his blog back as far as October/November that we would get a good start to winter but then the cold would back off the "northwest" (Ireland and UK) for the rest of winter - so he has been right Jackone

Edited February 11, 2011 by andymusic

[TonyH]

There will still be snow chances even into April possibly, however, even Keith must now be pessimistic about next week's cold spell chances.

My scenario 3 (see page 15) of a short-lived cold snap ahead of unsettled and mild Atlantic conditions looks the strong favourite now.

Edited February 11, 2011 by Tonyh

[keithlucky]

Still a chance of sleet snow sunday monday ,where we go from there i dont know even the met office are constantly changing every day ,for example philip avery said yesterday 11.26 turning colder next week ,cant understand why the met all of a sudden are all over the place.The only explanation i can come up with is the met need a new super computer lol.

[andymusic]

Still a chance of sleet snow sunday monday ,where we go from there i dont know even the met office are constantly changing every day ,for example philip avery said yesterday 11.26 turning colder next week ,cant understand why the met all of a sudden are all over the place.The only explanation i can come up with is the met need a new super computer lol.

It's been knife edge stuff - and all the models weren't really sure which side of the fence to land on - but now it looks sorted to me - anyway - just got my SNOW fix - great episode of ice road truckers on FIVE - going over the Atigun pass in Alaska in a 50mph blizzard at -57c in a truck bashing through wall like snow drifts - WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!! amazing - think I might change jobs and pop up there for a season - looks a load of fun - not sure I like the sound of bits of me falling off me though at those sorts of temps!

maybe a little comfort for the snowless next monday afternoon on this gfs run

Edited February 11, 2011 by andymusic

[J10]

Normally Andy we'd be asking you to take that down, but given the current models we'll grab any straw we can take.

[keithlucky]

Thats it im reporting the ECM to CTWW i had enough! (cruelity to weather watches) back with the cold weather outlook this morning.Still a good chance of seeing snow sunday to monday morning ,could surprise and give a covering across wales.

Edited February 12, 2011 by keithlucky

[welshgritter]

Anyone have any more accuracy on the weather over the next 24/48/72 hours ? Cheers

[andymusic]

Normally Andy we'd be asking you to take that down, but given the current models we'll grab any straw we can take.

Thanks Jackone - seems GFS is planning on giving us some extremely MARGINAL events early next week - doubt if it'll be much - certainly no lying snow - but maybe a little sleet/snow about - higher elevations will do better than low as usual - but it is not gonna be amazing - ECM has gone off on one again today - still convincing itself that the high will bring the mega easterly - the meto are having none of it and sticking with the Atlantic busting through by the end of next week.

edit:- wellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

you couldn't make it up

GFS 12z - further improvements it seems - high pressure now digging it's heels in harder - saying a big NOOOOOO to the Atlantic - still no cold upper air really directly over the UK of any great shakes - but this run is showing the influence of that cold continental air and the further possibilities of any precip turning to snow

models flippy flopping from one day to the next -

A BIG suggestion that they just can't handle such a knife edge set up - this would say to expect changes at the last minute this coming week as the weather develops - could possibly mean cold/mild orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr cold/cold with snow - or even if the high really starts taking hold cold/extreme cold - loads of snow! - all possibilities on the table right now!

Edited February 12, 2011 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Thanks Jackone - seems GFS is planning on giving us some extremely MARGINAL events early next week - doubt if it'll be much - certainly no lying snow - but maybe a little sleet/snow about - higher elevations will do better than low as usual - but it is not gonna be amazing - ECM has gone off on one again today - still convincing itself that the high will bring the mega easterly - the meto are having none of it and sticking with the Atlantic busting through by the end of next week.

Latest charts winter back with a bang especially east uk. beast from the east back ,who said winter is over lol.

[andymusic]

Latest charts winter back with a bang especially east uk. beast from the east back ,who said winter is over lol.

not quite beast from the east just yet - the cold uppers from the beast still don't make it over the UK but they are extremely close and on this run they seem to want to put up more of a fight - bringing the line between rain and snow further into the UK - if further improvements could occur then it could be game on - but the models keep flippy flopping back and forth - so I'm not sure they even know exactly right now what is going to happen

Tonight's ECM 12z - well it's sort of gets there - not as good as the GFS 12z - so just confirming that the models really aren't sure exactly how much this cold will be influencing our shores - will be nervy watching things develop this week!

Edited February 12, 2011 by andymusic

[ourson]

not quite beast from the east just yet - the cold uppers from the beast still don't make it over the UK but they are extremely close and on this run they seem to want to put up more of a fight - bringing the line between rain and snow further into the UK - if further improvements could occur then it could be game on - but the models keep flippy flopping back and forth - so I'm not sure they even know exactly right now what is going to happen

Tonight's ECM 12z - well it's sort of gets there - not as good as the GFS 12z - so just confirming that the models really aren't sure exactly how much this cold will be influencing our shores - will be nervy watching things develop this week!

Wot sort of time frame is this in Andy? Couple of days or deepest dakest FI?

[andymusic]

Wot sort of time frame is this in Andy? Couple of days or deepest dakest FI?

Within the next few days - but a firmer easterly may also take shape towards the end of this week - given colder conditions again - marginal sleet/snow events could happen in the early part of the week - will need close watching - marginal though being hill snow I would have thought - all depends how things develop this week and whether the high pressure can exert further pressure against the Atlantic flow

GFS 18z coming out now to give us the latest possibilities

example - Monday - Marginal ops for Wales

GFS 18z looks like it's gonna be a beaut of a run - high from the NE is making a lot more progress now into the UK - if this keeps improving who knows what's possible from this - the battleground is set

outside of the reliable timeframe for the moment - but if the high does work as hard as this or more friday afternoon into the evening could look like this

I have to repeat though - for Wales right now these are

MARGINAL SNOW EVENTS

not guaranteed - but and this is a big but - as we are seeing improvements from run to run - these events could firm up and could become more wide scale events covering lower altitudes as well - so - pay attention this week - there is an outside possibility of a snow event or two for Wales

One other thing to bare in mind - the stalling of the Atlantic front - as the high exerts further force then the front slowly comes to a halt - at the moment it is halting on the east side of the UK - there's always the chance is won't even get that far and will stall over Wales - possibly giving us 24 hours of the white stuff - this would be the golden scenario - followed by a cold easterly to keep all that snow and top us up occasionally

Edited February 12, 2011 by andymusic

[J10]

I remember events like this in the past where the front didn't even that far east, and we reminded dry.

But the roller-coaster is back on, no doubts more ups and downs before next weekend.

[welshgritter]

Morning All,

Boring Boring rain today. How are the models looking now. Anything more concrete with this supposed cold weather.

Also - it wasnt that long ago people were saying the last week of Feb was looking cold. Does anyone know whether this is still to be likely the case?

Cheers

[TonyH]

If I had to have a guess, I would say not much in the way of ice or snow this week across Wales, except perhaps above 300m at times though. Then the last week of Feb seems to be shaping up mild.

It is still rather a guessing game but I get the feeling that mild will win out this week.

Edited February 13, 2011 by Tonyh

[TonyH]

Country Tracks had near normal temperatures across Wales all week, 6-9c maxima north to south.

Needless to say little in the way of snow, just a hint of it over the hills of mid and north Wales for early Tuesday.

Rain or showers at times, with drier brighter interludes this week.