Wales Cymru Spring Weather Discussion Thread

[welshgritter]

Hail has been on and off for the last 30 minutes in Neath (SA11).

Netweather extended forecast has changed again mild for the restof the week - no temperatures dropping below zero.......

Can anyone shed any light on what has gone on over the last few hours. Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon was looking very very cold on the extended forecast for me and has now changed to such an extent that we will all be in our bermuda's by the weekend? Gutted.............

[Cymro]

We've had hail, sleet and wet snow here in Glanaman was just snow on the cross roads (about 300m abs) in heavier showers sleet/hail turning to wet snow. Nothing now though lovely cnvective weather. Bendigedig.

[andymusic]

Hail has been on and off for the last 30 minutes in Neath (SA11).

Netweather extended forecast has changed again mild for the restof the week - no temperatures dropping below zero.......

Can anyone shed any light on what has gone on over the last few hours. Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon was looking very very cold on the extended forecast for me and has now changed to such an extent that we will all be in our bermuda's by the weekend? Gutted.............

Hail showers here also - GFS 06z has back tracked again - but ECM is sticking with things just

I would say net weather's warning system probably works alongside GFS's output - that would reflect this morning's update for you - GFS 00z had a lot more of a cold easterly but GFS 06z didn't - it may well still swing back to cold in subsequent model runs over the next few days though

edit:- Although the meto are now dropping the idea of a heavy easterly for Wales now and even the easterly influence has kind of gone to

But I think confusion still reigns a little and there could be more chapters in this story yet - we'll see over the next 24 - 36 hours whether there are any further blips towards cold or further away for next weekend in the models

Edited February 14, 2011 by andymusic

[welshgritter]

I shall continue to do my ice dance and see what happens! Its like the rain dance, just to the song ice ice baby.

[andymusic]

GFS 12z - HE SAY NOOOOOOOOOOOOO! (to cold)

Ukmo 12z - He Also Say NOOOOOOOOOOOOO! (to cold)

ECM left to play it's cards starting at 6pm folks

Edited February 14, 2011 by andymusic

[marclt]

In showers over the higher ground of west Carmarthenshire and the Preseli's there was wet snow before and over lunch today. Then some firmer hail falling.

Dried up considerably now though...

[welshgritter]

TOO COLD - Does that mean we will get cold or does this mean too cold for snow. Sorry havent got a clue????

[Daniel Miller]

TOO COLD - Does that mean we will get cold or does this mean too cold for snow. Sorry havent got a clue????

technically speaking it can't BE too cold for snow. Imagine how it would snow in Alaska and Greenland with temps of -60 in the winter.

He also said NO (to cold) not too cold. He is saying the models are saying no to cold.

Edited February 14, 2011 by Daniel Miller

[welshgritter]

Thank You for Clarification Daniel Miller!

[Daniel Miller]

Thank You for Clarification Daniel Miller!

Good to see your happy about that . Seriously though, Don't worry. How many times in the past week have the models swung between a definite cold spell to a heatwave? I think it changes daily :S

Edited February 14, 2011 by Daniel Miller

[J10]

Overall a downgrade in terms of wintry potential for the weekend. However I don't think UKMO is that bad and certainly keeps the block close to us.

[andymusic]

Add into the mix - BBC 1 main weather news tonight and the forecaster (forget his name) was getting all excited about it turning colder as the week went on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Very Strange!

[A_T]

Chilly here - birdbath already freeing over

[TonyH]

A little sleet in the showers driving to work this morning.

Came home to find a sprinkling of hail.

In spite of the wintry nature of the showers managed to reach 8.3c!

FI not too inspiring from a cold perspective either. What with the high over the Continent.

[J10]

The Met Office and the TV forecasts do seem to raising the hopes a little. However IMO I cannot see anything of note for us, Like to be wrong but cannot see it.

[andymusic]

The boys on the Beeb and the meto can get as excited as they like but the models tell the true story - for the moment pretty much all chances of us seeing anything cold in Wales are now in the bin for the short to medium term - closer to the end of Feb and into March - who knows - but normal winter 2011 continues - we had all our winter stuffed into the end of November and into December last year I'm afraid.

[TonyH]

And even this week that was hyped up from some people to be very cold and wintry week or so is turning out average temperature wise. A touch of frost last night, max 9c today.

Edited February 15, 2011 by Tonyh

[Daniel Miller]

There is some talk on the model thread of maybe a Northerly as opposed to an Easterly.. Would this be as productive as December in terms of snow and cold?

[andymusic]

There is some talk on the model thread of maybe a Northerly as opposed to an Easterly.. Would this be as productive as December in terms of snow and cold?

if it did occur it would be a toppler affair, very transient, and it was only on one run of the ECM anyway - tonight's ECM shows nothing like that - I'm afraid it seems most of us are wishing the easterlies across the north sea but wishing does not make it happen - and the models just keep showing a "close but no cigar" option to the cold. If Feb is going in the bin for cold, may be we will have one last chance at some moderate cold in March.

[J10]

And even this week that was hyped up from some people to be very cold and wintry week or so is turning out average temperature wise. A touch of frost last night, max 9c today.

Not much hyping on this thread to be honest.

A dreadful day here with rain on and off for most of the day.

if it did occur it would be a toppler affair, very transient, and it was only on one run of the ECM anyway - tonight's ECM shows nothing like that - I'm afraid it seems most of us are wishing the easterlies across the north sea but wishing does not make it happen - and the models just keep showing a "close but no cigar" option to the cold. If Feb is going in the bin for cold, may be we will have one last chance at some moderate cold in March.

Nothing wrong with a northerly toppler, these tend to be very productive, even at this time of year. But with the lack of heights in the Greenland area, that doesn't appear to be that probable.

[TonyH]

Not much hyping on this thread to be honest.

Well perhaps only one person or so here, it was in the models though.

[J10]

Well perhaps only one person or so here, it was in the models though.

Who

[keithlucky]

Not much hyping on this thread to be honest.

A dreadful day here with rain on and off for most of the day.

Nothing wrong with a northerly toppler, these tend to be very productive, even at this time of year. But with the lack of heights in the Greenland area, that doesn't appear to be that probable.

A front moves into the swest tonight and then stalls over cornwall a sign that pressure pretty high over the north east ,and yes the met are still going with a week easterly flow friday saturday dry at last, temps around 6c.

Not much hyping on this thread to be honest.

A dreadful day here with rain on and off for most of the day.

Nothing wrong with a northerly toppler, these tend to be very productive, even at this time of year. But with the lack of heights in the Greenland area, that doesn't appear to be that probable.

A front moves into the swest tonight and then stalls over cornwall a sign that pressure pretty high over the north east ,and yes the met are still going with a weak easterly flow friday saturday dry at last, temps around 6c.

[keithlucky]

At least friday saturday looks dry with a High pressure close to the north east ,nearly a cold easterly with temps reaching -21 over sweden ,close but no cigar.

[TonyH]

Who

I don't wish to show anyone up, just look back through here over the past week, notably one person beginning with K.

Anyhow, this would n't be the Welsh thread if we did not have one cold and snow hyper After-all Andymusic has given up on us....