Wales Cymru Spring Weather Discussion Thread

[welshgritter]

All this is music to my ears !! I'll be honest, I wasnt expecting anything else. Winter come early and felt it would have finished early.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

and for the rest of the GFS 12z run we are back in the freezer

I don't see anywhere in Wales getting anywhere near -18C, back in the fridge would be more appropriate given the temps!

[andymusic]

I don't see anywhere in Wales getting anywhere near -18C, back in the fridge would be more appropriate given the temps!

Don't think I mentioned the figure -18 anywhere - "back in the freezer" - just a saying regarding cold conditions - which is likely next week!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Don't think I mentioned the figure -18 anywhere - "back in the freezer" - just a saying regarding cold conditions - which is likely next week!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freezer#Temperature_zones_and_ratings

[Snowmadsam]

http://en.wikipedia....nes_and_ratings

Seriously Rain Rain Rain, by Andy saying the words "back into the freezer" he is making an exaggeration of cold weather, he is using this term to compare the weather we have now to the weather that could come our way, that of a cooler/colder nature . I hope I have made this clear too you

Anyway on regards to the proper weather, ECM doesnt look too bad a downgrade from this morning (i think) please correct me if i'm wrong

[J10]

Hey Guys have you read that the forum regional discussions will be closing soon, I find this very sad as recently some colder weather has been poping up on the models, anyway this is what Shuggee had to say:

"Just a heads-up that with the end of winter approaching, the regional threads will be hibernating once again for the non-snowy seasons.

Traffic levels on the site don't justify so many threads outside peak cold weather, and discussion simply gets diluted and the forum frankly looks a mess and reads badly. Perhaps now is the time to reintegrate discussion in the main forum threads as a precursor to this section being closed"

I think this is very sad,especially as not enough forum users live on the western half of the country,maybe merge with South West England thread (Personally I disagree with that Idea), it's just a suggestion (please dont heart me! ), but it will be a sad time when it does happen. Jackone is it possble that the regional discussions will stay open for longer?

Weatherwise, looking at the 12z looking ok (I think), hoping for one more school closure becuase of snow

Thats my opinion anyway

Sam

Over the past 1 and half months, there has not been enough traffic to justify this thread, largely due to the lack of snowy weather. However it was decided to keep it open throughout the winter period. If there is a realistic chance of a wintry event in Early March, then we will keep it open. So as an example if the current forecast for March 4 was still being forecast on the 1st March, or within a realistic time frame, then it would be kept open.

Also even if the thread is closed, we would reopen it if wintry weather was imminent.

Back to the GFS this has been forecasting cold weather for a number of days now off and on, some of which would being snow to Wales, some of which would be cold and dry. Is it going to happen, well the ECM is not really coming on board, so this does reduce the possibility of cold/snow arriving on our shores.

IMO, it will turn colder from the north, however how cold and whether or not we will get snow from it is far too early to call.

GFS Trends for the 4th March.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110224/12/192/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110224/12/192/h850t850eu.png (From 24th Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110223/12/216/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110223/12/216/h850t850eu.png (From 23rd Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110222/12/240/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110222/12/240/h850t850eu.png (From 22nd Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110221/12/264/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110221/12/264/h850t850eu.png (From 21st Feb

I'll update this tomorrow, to see if the cold/snow is more likely or less likely. (this can be done for any date using the past 7 days charts in the Net Weather GFS library)

[andymusic]

GFS 18z - next Monday morning

Edited February 24, 2011 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Thursday ditto lol

[J10]

Looking at the 18HZ to my eyes, it doesnt look as good as some of the previous runs.

[andymusic]

Looking at the 18HZ to my eyes, it doesnt look as good as some of the previous runs.

yep, I'll go along with that Jackone - seems to want to play with the initial weak easterly more and puts back any northerly - still early days - it could just as easily improve before we get to next week - but the chance of some wintry precip come monday now!

[Costa Del Fal]

The Monday precip is only suggested to be very light and seems to be the snizzle type in my eyes. Absoloutley nothing to get excited about at all i must add. Meanwhile i cant work out what this weekend has in store. Some models go for showery and convective. The GFS wants a complete washout.

[andymusic]

The Monday precip is only suggested to be very light and seems to be the snizzle type in my eyes. Absoloutley nothing to get excited about at all i must add. Meanwhile i cant work out what this weekend has in store. Some models go for showery and convective. The GFS wants a complete washout.

I think we got some showery and convective stuff coming this weekend with hail- and after the dead loss of two winter months Jan/Feb - even a little wintry precip on monday would be a little conselation for our patience - with the prospect of lowering temps next week - who knows what else could develop as well

Edited February 24, 2011 by andymusic

[welshgritter]

Morning All,

Just wondering how the models are looking today. My long range forecasts are up and down at the moment, and this morning they are up !

Yesterday on one run I had next Tue/Wed with some over night temps getting below zero. At present they are all above. Looking at other sites and they are giving a cold next week for sure.

Can anyone give me some good news?

Cheers, Welsh Gritter.

[J10]

GFS Trends for the 4th March.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110225/12/168/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110225/12/168/h850t850eu.png (From 25th Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110224/12/192/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110224/12/192/h850t850eu.png (From 24th Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110223/12/216/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110223/12/216/h850t850eu.png (From 23rd Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110222/12/240/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110222/12/240/h850t850eu.png (From 22nd Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110221/12/264/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110221/12/264/h850t850eu.png (From 21st Feb)

Much less chance of a northerly from the GFS tonight, and with it the snow chance diminishes greatly. However still looking frosty potentially overnight, and a much better chance of seeing a strange yellow ball shaped object in the sky, which is a relief.

[andymusic]

Still looking very cold next week - and outside chances of seeing some snow also

[andymusic]

Monday afternoon - still looking like a cold and wintry day

[J10]

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110226/12/144/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110226/12/144/h850t850eu.png (From 26th Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110225/12/168/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110225/12/168/h850t850eu.png (From 25th Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110224/12/192/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110224/12/192/h850t850eu.png (From 24th Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110223/12/216/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110223/12/216/h850t850eu.png (From 23rd Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110222/12/240/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110222/12/240/h850t850eu.png (From 22nd Feb)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110221/12/264/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110221/12/264/h850t850eu.png (From 21st Feb)

Continuation of the expected theme re the Non Northerly. However still looking settled dry, and possible frosty overnight.

Nice to see some sunshine today, feeling very pleasant as well.

[TonyH]

Look forward to the cold spots of drizzle on Monday then. As Jackone says, apart from this odd spot of something on Monday, a fine dry week to look forward to, not so mild and not so cool, sunshine amounts variable from day to day and from region to region. It will though feel pleasant in any sunshine.

Still looking very cold next week

Cannot see that, although Monday looks 'cold' for the end of February, with likely maxima across Wales 5-7c generally. In any case, with the high pressure very close by, winds will be light and it will not feel cold at all, again with the exception of Monday.

And could well be on the mild side late in the week:

Frosty nights are though likely at least early in this coming week, perhaps with more cloud restricting frosts later though.

Monday looks dry for Wales on the UKMO, so I would not build up hopes of seeing a snowflake, even were it cold enough in your locality:

Edited February 26, 2011 by Tonyh

[J10]

Look forward to the cold spots of drizzle on Monday then. As Jackone says, apart from this odd spot of something on Monday, a fine dry week to look forward to, not so mild and not so cool, sunshine amounts variable from day to day and from region to region. It will though feel pleasant in any sunshine.

Cannot see that, although Monday looks 'cold' for the end of February, with likely maxima across Wales 5-7c generally. In any case, with the high pressure very close by, winds will be light and it will not feel cold at all, again with the exception of Monday.

And could well be on the mild side late in the week:

Frosty nights are though likely at least early in this coming week, perhaps with more cloud restricting frosts later though.

Monday looks dry for Wales on the UKMO, so I would not build up hopes of seeing a snowflake, even were it cold enough in your locality:

Got to be honest I cannot really see much in the way on any wintriness on Monday, so I agree with you. As long as we can get some sunshine this week I will be happy.

[J10]

My wintry drought for February is over, was outside and got caught in a heavy shower, and there was ice on my coat. Bit of a mix between hail and sleet. A strange contrast in the day, a warm sun and cold wind, which you quite often get at the end of winter.

[ourson]

I have a theory that needs to be tested with your help.

I have noticed over the last couple of winters that when more members are logged on to Netweather (Wales/Cymru), cold and often wintery weather follows thereafter. This in my opinion neds to be tested.

Could we all log in tomorrow at say 8pm. The crucial number seems to be about 50 members.

If we could get 50+ of us logged on tomorrow night, snow and cold will surely follow.

Edited February 27, 2011 by ourson

[J10]

I have a theory that needs to be tested with your help.

I have noticed over the last couple of winters that when more members are logged on to Netweather (Wales/Cymru), cold and often wintery weather follows thereafter. This in my opinion neds to be tested.

Could we all log in tomorrow at say 8pm. The crucial number seems to be about 50 members.

If we could get 50+ of us logged on tomorrow night, snow and cold will surely follow.

Probably that's more due to the fact that wintry weather is forecast, whereas this really isn't the case at the moment.

[Elnonio]

Probably that's more due to the fact that wintry weather is forecast, whereas this really isn't the case at the moment.

You think?!!!

I think that was probably irony from Ourson.

Lucky that we're here to discuss the weather not for the amusing banter eh

[J10]

You think?!!!

I think that was probably irony from Ourson.

Lucky that we're here to discuss the weather not for the amusing banter eh

It's been a long winter on here.

[Snowmadsam]

Well guys that's it, we have (almost) (will have if you are reading this on the 1st of March), finished winter and Meterlogical Spring starts on the 1st of March. Firstly may I say a massive congratulations to Tonyh for keeping this forum in order and congratulations on becoming purple! Secondly I would like to thank our chief ramper Andymusic for keeping people up to date and for being so enthusastic about the amount of snow etc. Keithlucky and Adamjones for providing some fantastic support and keeping people up-to-date and also for helping out beginners and amaturs (like my self) up-to-date. I would also like to give my special thanks to Jackone for coming up with his summarys and for helping people to understand what is being said in various posts. I would also like to thank Paul for giving us the oppotunity to discuss Wales' weather, and lastly I would like to thank everyone on here for being amazing (as you always are).

Thank you

Snowmadsam

I have always wanted to leave a forum post on a cliffhanger so here it is (it may be rubbish but still) The season of Winter may have gone but winter is like a scorpion it has a sting in its tale and it can come back at whatver time ok now queue eastenders duff duff *duff duff*.