Wales Cymru Spring Weather Discussion Thread

[andymusic]

Interesting chart for tomorrow

[TonyH]

Does not look cold enough for sleet let alone snow tomorrow:

[cheshire snow]

Interesting chart for tomorrow

Andy

just posted this in the NW thread how reliable is it?

looks to be very marginal for lower ground with DP of about 0c

C.S

[andymusic]

Andy

just posted this in the NW thread how reliable is it?

looks to be very marginal for lower ground with DP of about 0c

C.S

From what I can see on GFS - cold uppers from the west may help to bring this about - but it will be very MARGINAL - so elevation will be helpful

edit:- I will let you know if I see a flake or two

Edited February 13, 2011 by andymusic

[cheshire snow]

From what I can see on GFS - cold uppers from the west may help to bring this about - but it will be very MARGINAL - so elevation will be helpful

Thanks for the reply Andy

yes i agree elevation will help cannot see to many surprises for low ground

C.S

[andymusic]

Meto's take on the next couple of days for Wales specifically

Monday:

Sunny spells for most places, though with a chance of showers too, these wintry in the mountains. Becoming breezy in the west later. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled, with rain and hill snow on Tuesday clearing to heavy showers on Wednesday, these turning thundery at times. Showers easing on Thursday. Often windy, with coastal gales at times.

Looks a bit more active as well with "thundery" showers

Edited February 13, 2011 by andymusic

[J10]

Does not look cold enough for sleet let alone snow tomorrow:

As I posted in the other thread, Maximum temps in showery flows is not the only factor to consider, temps drop rapidly in any showers.

Thickness levels are 522 (good for snow) and 1300 (not so good) with 850HPa temps below -5c. Dewpoints being close to freezing also helps. So in summary, a wintry mix is possible rain, hail with some sleet or snow in some of the heavier showers, more especially over the hills. Settling snow is likely to be extremely limited though.

By the way this is my detailed forecast, from the Model Analysts thread.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67790-model-analysts-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2046211 The advantage of these links even though there were done on the 12Hz run of GFS and ECM, is that there are fixd for a week, so you can go back to see how accurate they were.

[TonyH]

I think hail showers will be quite a feature tomorrow, with sleetiness a possibility and snow restricted to hills.

Essentially we have a Spring- like set up of cold uppers being down- draughted to the surface in heavier showers, on an otherwise unremarkable day with SW or west winds.

Edited February 13, 2011 by Tonyh

[andymusic]

GFS 12z looking like an even better run again - the front piling in on saturday struggling even more to move across the UK and the cold uppers from the easterly moving into the UK that little bit more - may be further upgrades on every model run this week to come yet

Atlantic is looking as weak as a kitten on this run and the high pressure is showing who's boss

something to drool over for saturday next week for Wales

possibly snowing for most of the day as the GFS shows the colder weather push further west and also helps to stall the front moving west to east over us!

Updated NAE charts for tomorrow

Edited February 13, 2011 by andymusic

[Daniel Miller]

GFS 12z looking like an even better run again - the front piling in on saturday struggling even more to move across the UK and the cold uppers from the easterly moving into the UK that little bit more - may be further upgrades on every model run this week to come yet

Atlantic is looking as weak as a kitten on this run and the high pressure is showing who's boss

something to drool over for saturday next week for Wales

possibly snowing for most of the day as the GFS shows the colder weather push further west and also helps to stall the front moving west to east over us!

Updated NAE charts for tomorrow

Wait, is that showing a little snow tomorrow?

Edited February 13, 2011 by Tonyh
Chart pruning time within your quote as we don't need 2 lots.

[andymusic]

Wait, is that showing a little snow tomorrow?

In the heavier showers plus for elevations - could well be possible - on the eve of winter attempting to fight back it seems

[Daniel Miller]

In the heavier showers plus for elevations - could well be possible - on the eve of winter attempting to fight back it seems

I'm hoping that it comes off. What do you think our chances of return to cold and snowy weather are?

[TonyH]

This would well and truly signal the end of Winter next week:

[andymusic]

I'm hoping that it comes off. What do you think our chances of return to cold and snowy weather are?

seem to be slightly improving with every model run - may not see severe cold - but we may well finally get to see the white stuff once again

This would well and truly signal the end of Winter next week:

HOW????????

it leads to this chart just two days later!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

HOW????????

mushymanrobitis

Edited February 13, 2011 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[TonyH]

seem to be slightly improving with every model run - may not see severe cold - but we may well finally get to see the white stuff once again

HOW???????

And ECM brings in deep south-westerlies early next week..Spring?

mushymanrobitis

Careful it's contagious you know!

[J10]

IMO the charts tonight are an upgrade compared to this mornings with regard to cold winning and snow potential.

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20110213;time=12;ext=150;sess=2f7bf5e6a1adbad97db4e3e44c141cca;file=john

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20110213;time=12;ext=150;sess=2f7bf5e6a1adbad97db4e3e44c141cca;file=tmp850

This very much shows the Atlantic struggling to get through, and more importantly the upper temps do not get above 0c.

Looking at those max temps, they really do struggle, this is caused by a cold wind from the continent.

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20110213;time=12;ext=150;sess=2f7bf5e6a1adbad97db4e3e44c141cca;file=ukmaxtemp

These charts remain fixed for 7 days, so it will be able to compare them against future outcomes.

To be objective though the ECM do show a better case for the Atlantic winning out.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110213/12/ecmt850.144.png which not only shows upper temps above 0c, but it also shows SW pushing in as early as the Saturday.

So the roller-coaster continues.

Good to see snow mixed in the showers for South Wales on the Countryfile forecast, despite the above comments probably more chance of some wintriness tomorrow, tha at the end of the week.

[TonyH]

Hmm Countryfile showed a fairly dry and sunny day for most of the southern half of Wales, more cloudy mid and north, but showed very few showers.

[J10]

It did but there were showers shown for south Wales especially in the morning. During this time there were snowflakes shown as well as rain.

(This was the evening forecast)

[welshwizard]

hi all i think our winter isover as such, even if we do get a little of the white stuff it wont stay around and there are too many things growing on the trees now for winter to really kick back in. i may be wrong but going on the last good few years,when the stuff start growing like they have for the last 2 weeks it norm a good signal in my area that the worst is well and truly over.bring on the sun now i am ready for it lol. i hope it snows one more time for you guys but then lets have a nice long hot dry summer please.

[welshgritter]

Im confused.com................

Who What When Where and How ???............

Done a very small amount of gritting tonight off the back of the met office warnings (bonus). My data doesnt show any ground surface temperatures below zero for tonight so thank you 'met'.

Are we on for a cold week? Is there cold coming in next saturday. All this back and fore is making me feel a bit . My current data I get from Netweather is not showing any zero figures for South Wales this week - do you think this is likely to change?

Any clarification? This forum hasnt half woken up over the last 24 hours.......so I assume something is on the cards.

[J10]

Huge uncertainty, but real chance of turning colder towards the end of next week. If the block holds then some very frosty weather on the cards, but a huge IF at this stage.

GFS 18HZ gives chance of breakdown snow event, but a long way to go for this happen.

[andymusic]

Im confused.com................

Who What When Where and How ???............

Done a very small amount of gritting tonight off the back of the met office warnings (bonus). My data doesnt show any ground surface temperatures below zero for tonight so thank you 'met'.

Are we on for a cold week? Is there cold coming in next saturday. All this back and fore is making me feel a bit . My current data I get from Netweather is not showing any zero figures for South Wales this week - do you think this is likely to change?

Any clarification? This forum hasnt half woken up over the last 24 hours.......so I assume something is on the cards.

Overnight frosts are certainly coming your way mate

Tomorrow is still looking good for a few wintry showers for Wales also

then we look towards the end of the week for the battleground to see where the low gets to and how much it gets effected by the cold high pressure to the east

Edited February 14, 2011 by andymusic

[welshgritter]

Cheers for the info Andy

I have logged onto my Netweather system this morning and my forecast for this week has drastically changed. Cold coming in from the early hours of Friday morning and continuing up until it allows me to see which is Monday. Looking like a cold one with temperatures way below zero at times.

It would be Cracking if we see some snow over the next couple of days - just to ensure people that Winter is still there and hasnt gone away just yet.

I know its a long way off - but do you know how March is shaping up? On the forum previously, numerous people were saying to watch out for March? Is there anything indicated at the moment.

[Backtrack]

Can anyone here report any convective hail showers yet?