Ireland - Winter/Spring Weather Discussion Part 6

[kimmirut]

Sorry. You'd be lucky to get 0.00002 mm of snow. Don't get your hopes up, it won't snow. It's a high ground event. By high ground, I don't mean your location, I mean hills and mountains.

Thursday is still FI atm, so that precip will change, if not dissapear.

Sorry i don't live in the north west of england right beside the sea i live in the north of ni on the edge of a hill which gives me alot more advantage over you and the last time i checked the uppers were -8c for me they are only -5c for england but even with that you can get snow heck you can get snow with -2c uppers. Infact i got snow last night with -2c uppers! Look at the following chart.

Dunno how yous all think thats marginal!

Edited January 30, 2011 by kimmirut

[kimmirut]

Look at this also that is 519dam that would certainly bring snow!

Update on current conditions:

Temperature: 3c

Weather: Cloudy with some small snow flakes floating about

Wind: 3mph , little.

Humidity: 77%

Dew point: -0.6c.

It is trying to snow here it looks like its snowing proper out towards castlerock and portstewart (all white and can't see them) maybe i'll get some!

Edited January 30, 2011 by kimmirut

[Osbourne One-Nil]

You live approximately 120 miles further north, are closer to the sea than Runcorn, and have an elevation of approximately 65m above seal level. I'd say your weather would be very similar and can't see any reason at all why you'd be so much colder than anywhere else.

[kimmirut]

You live approximately 120 miles further north, are closer to the sea than Runcorn, and have an elevation of approximately 65m above seal level. I'd say your weather would be very similar and can't see any reason at all why you'd be so much colder than anywhere else.

Because i'm not on the west coast and i am further north, as well as that i am not exposed i have got alot of land west of me and a high hill so the sea air doesn't effect me as much in an westerly wind, it is always colder here my brothers girl friend lives in liverpool and everytime she comes here she says there is more snow here and its always colder here,sometimes she even says its raining there, in december she was laughing at my brother when he said we had over a foot of snow and they had none! I don't think liverpool has even got below -9c this winter, stations here have got about -15c (i got -16c).

Edited January 30, 2011 by kimmirut

[kimmirut]

Updates..

Temperature: 2.8c.

Humidity: 80%

Dew point: -0.3c

Weather: cloudy with a few breaks in the sky.

Wind: None.

Cloud: Full

The snow lasted for about 1hour and a half just wee spits but near the end it turned into large flakes and started to lodge on the car but then it stopped! It was very dry snow as well!

[Backtrack]

Because i'm not on the west coast and i am further north, as well as that i am not exposed i have got alot of land west of me and a high hill so the sea air doesn't effect me as much in an westerly wind, it is always colder here my brothers girl friend lives in liverpool and everytime she comes here she says there is more snow here and its always colder here,sometimes she even says its raining there, in december she was laughing at my brother when he said we had over a foot of snow and they had none! I don't think liverpool has even got below -9c this winter, stations here have got about -15c (i got -16c).

Liverpool has been below -11C this winter.

Crosby has been below -18C this winter.

I have been below -11C this winter.

I've looked at the charts, and I am doubting whether they have over estimated those uppers. I know the wind is Westerly and Canada have had a very cold winter, but I still can't see much potential away from high ground.

There are many other factors to consider as well as thickness and upper air temperatures.

12z has just blown any chance of snow now IMO.

Dewpoints and surface temperatures are the wrong side of marginal. They are above 0C.

See why I said this event will be for higher ground?

[kimmirut]

Liverpool has been below -11C this winter.

Crosby has been below -18C this winter.

I have been below -11C this winter.

I've looked at the charts, and I am doubting whether they have over estimated those uppers. I know the wind is Westerly and Canada have had a very cold winter, but I still can't see much potential away from high ground.

There are many other factors to consider as well as thickness and upper air temperatures.

12z has just blown any chance of snow now IMO.

Dewpoints and surface temperatures are the wrong side of marginal. They are above 0C.

See why I said this event will be for higher ground?

Well the gfs is clearly wrong there will definitely not be positive uppers with -8c uppers and 518dam that isn't going to happen. Also you are not viewing the charts for the north you are looking at your own area and comparing it too mines it is marginal for you it isn't marginal for me at all. The temps will be lower no way will it be 3c with them uppers more like 1 or 2 at best. That was even outlined in the model output.

As you can see your area is marginal my area isn't which is what i'm trying to say... also there are several chances of snow next week thursday , saturday and sunday and maybe tomorrow we shall see.

[thetonynator]

Because i'm not on the west coast and i am further north, as well as that i am not exposed i have got alot of land west of me and a high hill so the sea air doesn't effect me as much in an westerly wind, it is always colder here my brothers girl friend lives in liverpool and everytime she comes here she says there is more snow here and its always colder here,sometimes she even says its raining there, in december she was laughing at my brother when he said we had over a foot of snow and they had none! I don't think liverpool has even got below -9c this winter, stations here have got about -15c (i got -16c).

The hill behind you that you talk of is your best chance of snow, but for your level you will prob not even see sleet. Also the GFS has downgraded on cold today compared to yesterday.

[sundog]

A cold bright dry day,max temp 2.9c,last nights low -0.2c

Current temp -1.1c

[kimmirut]

The hill behind you that you talk of is your best chance of snow, but for your level you will prob not even see sleet. Also the GFS has downgraded on cold today compared to yesterday.

No offence but are you people blind , 518dam and -8c uppers will definitely see snow what are you all talking about its starting to do my head in! I had snow today with -2c uppers... and last night as well infact. And no it hasn't -5c uppers or below for ni and scotland from thursday and Saturday and even wednesday! Its downgraded for southern ireland not ni, i hate it when people say its downgraded when its downgraded in their area not my area!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I'd be interested to see what you wrote when you were trying to be offensive then. I would say why not wait and see, but that would rely on what you tell us being the same as what actually happens, and I (along with many others) suspect that's not always the case.

[Backtrack]

No offence but are you people blind , 518dam and -8c uppers will definitely see snow what are you all talking about its starting to do my head in! I had snow today with -2c uppers... and last night as well infact. And no it hasn't -5c uppers or below for ni and scotland from thursday and Saturday and even wednesday! Its downgraded for southern ireland not ni, i hate it when people say its downgraded when its downgraded in their area not my area!

You over confidence will be your undoing.

Just a quote from Dragonball GT. But it applies here. Your so over confident that your location is so cold, you may as well be living in Antarctica. Even then you will be moaning that there are penguins eating your snow messing it up or something.

There are other factors you know. Thickness and upper air temperatures are two of the factors, but just because we have those two factors here doesn't mean that it will snow. I also wasn't comparing your location to mine, it's marginal away from high ground.

You WILL however see some convective snow showers. They won't lay for long I bet though, it will be an evaporative cooling sort of day, a very interesting one, and the sort of setups I love. Seeing beefy showers moving in from the sea. Brilliant!

Good luck any how.

Edited January 30, 2011 by Backtrack

[Baltic Regions]

lol Kimmirut. I think OON has the measure of you!

Nippy oul day today. Another bit of a frost tonight.

[Isolated Frost]

No offence but are you people blind , 518dam and -8c uppers will definitely see snow what are you all talking about its starting to do my head in! I had snow today with -2c uppers... and last night as well infact. And no it hasn't -5c uppers or below for ni and scotland from thursday and Saturday and even wednesday! Its downgraded for southern ireland not ni, i hate it when people say its downgraded when its downgraded in their area not my area!

Yes. Course...

It has downgraded ANY potential as it's closed in to the nearer timescale. Also, I've had snow with 537dam, and rain with 514dam, so that is not a necessity.

Also, the 12Z GFS has -6C 850's over you for roughly 18 hours on Wed night/Thurs and the 0C line moving in on Friday, so you may get a sleety shower on Thursday morning, but IMO, nothing more.

BTW - From Wednesday to Saturday, 850's are -5C or below for NI and Scotland?

Sorry, but it lasts 24hr max, and -6/-7C uppers are what's needed for snow from the Atlantic IMO, so as I said sleety, and for you to call other people blind when YOU obviously got it totally wrong is mystifying to say the least.

[kimmirut]

You over confidence will be your undoing.

Just a quote from Dragonball GT. But it applies here. Your so over confident that your location is so cold, you may as well be living in Antarctica. Even then you will be moaning that there are penguins eating your snow messing it up or something.

There are other factors you know. Thickness and upper air temperatures are two of the factors, but just because we have those two factors here doesn't mean that it will snow. I also wasn't comparing your location to mine, it's marginal away from high ground.

You WILL however see some convective snow showers. They won't lay for long I bet though, it will be an evaporative cooling sort of day, a very interesting one, and the sort of setups I love. Seeing beefy showers moving in from the sea. Brilliant!

Good luck any how.

Yes so its good enough to snow dunno what you were talking about earlier, we have 4 or 5 possible days it could snow, we have wednesday night, thursday, saturday, sunday and monday of the week after that.... i think that i will see snow at least one of them days mostly thursday and according to some other folk there is gonny be some heafty showers on thursday the question is will the showers be the type you get in spring where they drop the temp quick?? if so it would be good because if temps are 3c before the shower and this occurs then the temp could rocket to -1c or -2 and it wouldn't take much to lie, but we need that to happen for it to lie.. Looks like an exciting weekend next week will be up late them nights! And since the wind is coming from the north and north west on thursday i should get the brunt of the showers again!! Yippi! Canny wait! (probably all downgraded now)

Edited January 30, 2011 by kimmirut

[Isolated Frost]

Kimmi's said 'I needen bother' because' he has me on ignore. Priceless.

Once someone actually posts evidence that he is wrong, he ignores it, literally, I'm honestly crying with laughter right now!

This is gold - I would never ignore Kimmi because of the pure, sheer brilliance of his ignorance, and pot of entertainment!

Yes so its good enough to snow dunno what you were talking about earlier, we have 4 or 5 possible days it could snow, we have wednesday night, thursday, saturday, sunday and monday of the week after that.... i think that i will see snow at least one of them days mostly thursday and according to some other folk there is gonny be some heafty showers on thursday the question is will the showers be the type you get in spring where they drop the temp quick?? Anyone know? if so it would be good because if temps are 3c before the shower and this occurs then the temp could rocket to -1c or -2 and it wouldn't take much to lie, but we need that to happen for it to lie! That would be a pretty good day hopefully its frequent showers so it barely gets above 0c mm and i'll be heading up the mountain on thursday if that happens!!! But we'll see i bet ye it downgrades from now on, hopefully not!! Looks like an exciting weekend next week will be up late them nights! And since the wind is coming from the north and north west on thursday i should get the brunt of the showers again!! Yippi! Canny wait! (probably all downgraded now)

It's been downgrading for a while.

You have 1 or 2 days of possible snow (Wed and Thurs), no Ice Days - almost certain of that, yes, evaporative cooling should come in play, and no you can't read this - but if any kind lad/lass could quote this to him, I'd be much happier!

[Rocheydub]

Jeez.

I take a week out and come back to the same ould tripe out of Kimmirunt's keyboard.

Anyway, I had deep snow in the Alps for 7 days. Had my fill. Love the stormy stuff on the way too... Happy days!

[The watcher]

You over confidence will be your undoing.

Just a quote from Dragonball GT.

I effing love Dragonball......I have all the episodes and movies.

Anyways, if GFS has downgraded what I seen yesterday (of what was then an already marginal event for low levels with only a chance of wintry precipitation rather than snow), then I think it'll be a hills/high ground event.

Will take a look now and see what the score is.

[The watcher]

Updated GFS:

Looks like window of -5 to -6 uppers has been reduced, 528 dam line does not make it SW enough to cover ANY part of NI, moist air from the Atlantic will make humidity high and temperatures between 3-6c during the day (Thursday) means DP's will be above 0c.

I would also like to add that I expect the cold zonal air to downgrade more over the next few days.

Risk of wintry precipitation:

Low levels - 0-100m Hail/Rain showers, maybe a little sleety

Hills - 100m-300m Sleet, hail showers, snow above 250m

Mountains - Snow showers above 300m. Wintry below.

Thats what I would go for judging by current model predictions for Thursdays cold Zonal.

[Backtrack]

I effing love Dragonball......I have all the episodes and movies.

Anyways, if GFS has downgraded what I seen yesterday (of what was then an already marginal event for low levels with only a chance of wintry precipitation rather than snow), then I think it'll be a hills/high ground event.

Will take a look now and see what the score is.

Ah, you're very lucky to have them all. I have been collecting the merchandise for some time now.

I have a few box sets. Been getting into the Dragonball sagas lately!

I was going to link you to a site where you watch them all free, but you have them all. :lol:

@Frostyjoe - Yep, as I have been telling you all day, it has downgraded and it will be a higher ground event away from some brief heavier precip which could be of hail or sleet.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Backtrack

[The watcher]

Ah, you're very lucky to have them all. I have been collecting the merchandise for some time now.

I have a few box sets. Been getting into the Dragonball sagas lately!

I was going to link you to a site where you watch them all free, but you have them all. :lol:

@Frostyjoe - Yep, as I have been telling you all day, it has downgraded and it will be a higher ground event away from some brief heavier precip which could be of hail or sleet.

I already know where to get them all free, Stage6, although because I use a dongle, it'd be very expensive to watch, because of the streaming.

Favourite sagas are: Cell Games (Gohan vs Cell specifically) and Kid Buu, because he reminds me of me. I'm small but do not left trouser leg me off lol.

I could easily send you the discs with all episodes on them, then you could burn them to DVD disc and not have to stream to watch. PM me if interested.

Edited January 31, 2011 by The watcher

[kimmirut]

I can see were you are all coming from with dew points but if the upper air is that cold that shouldn't be able to happen.. and whats really annoying me is how the -10 upper air gets the whole way accross the atlantic which is far warmer than us but when it hits us it breaks up what is that all about???????? We should be feeding it.

Really mild now can see it getting upto 9c or something today;.

Can't wait to thursday. Met office say snow on hills tomorrow hmm maybe lower levels too we will see.

Current conditions

Temperature: 5c!! AGGG

Humdity: 82%

Wind: 5mph sw.

Weather: cloudy

Really can't wait to the weekend... i'm beginning to think is there any point in looking for winter anymore i'm starting to look for warm sunny weather now because this weather is getting useless everytime the cold weather even tries to come the mild crap comes!:excl:

[Rocheydub]

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/dark-hole-forms-in-suns-atmosphere.html

[kimmirut]

I see the met office mentions snow on hills tomorrow how high?? I also see heavy prolonged showers might get a covering if they are heavy and prolonged

[Backtrack]

I already know where to get them all free, Stage6, although because I use a dongle, it'd be very expensive to watch, because of the streaming.

Favourite sagas are: Cell Games (Gohan vs Cell specifically) and Kid Buu, because he reminds me of me. I'm small but do not left trouser leg me off lol.

I could easily send you the discs with all episodes on them, then you could burn them to DVD disc and not have to stream to watch. PM me if interested.

Usually when I use my dongle in the car, I stream the episodes from it. It uses about 7mb - 10mb per episode.

Favourite has gotta be the Frieza or Cell saga. Majin Buu was a top notch enemy, a brilliant saga, but he just refused to die :lol:

Oh, Akira Toryiama is also making a new series.