Ireland - Winter/Spring Weather Discussion Part 6

[stormforce 10]

cool and cloudy, dry. outside temp 2.6c. overnight low of 0.9c.

[abbaman]

This my full forcast for the year from my charts from last year and 1991-2000 charts.

Jan

After a mild end to the month the south of the Uk will end the month with a light scattering of snow. The rest of the Uk will finish the end of the month with near to normal CET.

Feb

The kindest month of the winter. but still not a lot to shout about Usually the driest month of the year this one will be mixed with a few very wet and windy days. Dominated more by the Atlantic than the north pole or Siberia, it will feel as spring is round the corner at times- especially during the second half of the month. But negative weather will continue to play a part.

March

Spring springs forth but it does slowly. On the whole it will be a pretty good month. It will not be as good as last year that had but with long days of dry weather. With above days of sunshine. However the fly in the ointment points to one week hostility - hostility- probly in the frist week.

April

This month will not dissapoint should have more sunshine than showers this time around but with a few big thunderstorms around which may bring a few showers with them.

May

Not as great as one would hope with with wetter days with less sunshine than normal there will be one day when temps will peak around 28C.

June

Mixed weather so get the brollies and shorts at the ready. News for all thunderstroms lovers a lot of air mass over southern Uk to Give them the thunder that some want. Max temp 28c.

July

It will be a stop- start , stop - start in terms of warm weather and them a heat wave with a small chance of us reaching the 100f mark. This month has been a disaster in the last couple of years so chances it will be better this time. It will be better with plenty of high pressuse and a low pressuse as well

Aug

This is derbyshire only forcast.

Mostly like last year apart from it will see 5 days of sunshine when temps reach 30c.

Spet

It will be much sunnier and warmer than last year but with a day when the heaven opens causing floods that when rain will fall for a whole day.#

Oct

This month is set to recive a short lived Indian summer in the frist two weeks likely to see warmth and a lot of sunshine. The second half of the month will be colder and drier. Overall the month will be warmner and drier and sunnier than normal.

Nov

On average this is the Uk's wettest month of the year. This time it will be often windy and wet and generaly devoild of snow and hard frosts but within that there should be some drier days where fog and light frost come to the fore.

Dec

last forcast month.

The chances of a repeat of last Dec weather are likely with a bet of 10/1 likey to fairly mild and changeable with it with a lot of wet weather. The second half will be cold with a few snow days and some hard frosts but not severe as recent times.

So now we have a full weather forcast for the year.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

A lot of talk in work today about another potent cold spell arriving in the next fortnight - apparently NIE are getting all prepared and everything. First I have heard of it anyone else hearing about this??

Edited January 24, 2011 by Pomeroysnow

[ronan]

Well i hope you are right Pomeroy! I am in serious need of some snow! During the last cold spell in December i ordered my wee girl a sleigh off Ebay! It finally arrived when the snow had all melted so i really hope we get something soon. Anyway i have been taking advantage of the dry weather to get out onto the beaches and do a bit of fishing! Its been great! Hopefully in the next 2 weeks we see signs of snow returning.

[mountain shadow]

Regretabally we are as far away from a cold snowy spell as you can possibly get. I can hardly see any hope in any output at present.

Last chance saloon is a strat warming and/or PV split in a favourable position.

[Neiller]

People starting to state what iv been saying last 3 weeks!!! very liitle snow if any to come the rest of the winter. Even long term forecasts in every area stating this.

[stormforce 10]

outside temp -0.6c cold and clear.

[The watcher]

People starting to state what iv been saying last 3 weeks!!! very liitle snow if any to come the rest of the winter. Even long term forecasts in every area stating this.

Difference being forecasters analyse the information, you just say it on a whim, like you did in December.

[stormforce 10]

cold with a slight frost this morning overnight low -0.9c. current outside temp 0.5c and part cloudy.

[Neiller]

Well my forecast had been more accurate than your so called study of the charts watcher so if u reckon iv done it on a whim that's great for me as I must be a genius! I just don't talk through every chart when posting as I'm sure people don't want to be told how to suck eggs!! I just say what I see. Like it or lump it what you think really just goes over the head my friend!! Maybe your just a bit annoyed your forecast isn't up to scratch this time. I suppose it's still going to snow in northern Ireland b4 January ends!!

[grab my graupel]

Let's try to keep the discussion friendly in here please folks. There's no need for bickering and point scoring

Many Thanks

Brian

[The watcher]

Well my forecast had been more accurate than your so called study of the charts watcher so if u reckon iv done it on a whim that's great for me as I must be a genius! I just don't talk through every chart when posting as I'm sure people don't want to be told how to suck eggs!! I just say what I see. Like it or lump it what you think really just goes over the head my friend!! Maybe your just a bit annoyed your forecast isn't up to scratch this time. I suppose it's still going to snow in northern Ireland b4 January ends!!

Oh really, flick back through the discussions and tell me how long ago I issued my last forecast and how right I was about HP remaining in Situ over and around the UK until end of January. Must have been 2 weeks ago.

It wasn't me that said we'd see snow by the end of January, that I can guarantee.

Point is, what else can you use to forecast bar charts and teleconnections analysis?

I also say what I see, but provide scientific knowledge to back-up my conclusions.

Do you really think we will see no more snowfall anywhere in Ireland this winter/early spring?

I'd like to make a bet that you are wrong and we will see more in February/Early march, regardless of the way we see it. Should it be a Northerly toppler/Cold Zonal or a Siberian Easterly. To write off winter with still a month to go and on the basis of no cold spell showing its hand within the next 10 days on charts is ludicrous and a downright insult to any forecaster on this website or indeed the met office.

On the basis of my forecast for the whole of winter (which was done some 3 months ago), I'd expect a very minimal success rate for the third month of winter anyway, if it was possible to create an accurate long range forecast that far ahead (which it is not at this current time), we'd have no need to discuss model output 2 weeks away.

Edited January 27, 2011 by grab my graupel
The watcher is being watched

[BornFromTheVoid]

Feels quite bitter out, just 3C, spitting rain and breezy.

[Neiller]

Not getting involved watcher. Have better things to do with my time. Good luck with the rest of your forecasts !

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Neiller, Having looked at some of your past posts, it's a bit rich in the extreme to attempt to take the moral high ground by stating that you're not getting involved. Glad to see you've got better things to do with your time though, so I look forward to more constructive contributions to come.

[kimmirut]

Looks like cold temps are back after two or three days of 8c, glad because 2c and cloud with frost at night is far more interesting than a constant 8c!!

Current condtions:

Max temp: 3.3c.

Min: -0.5c.

Weather: cloudy.

Current Temp: 1.5c.

Humdity: 70%

Dew point: -3c.

Wind: 0mph

Isn't it typical that when we have negative dew points it doesn't rain i've had 3c most days all of this month and i've hardly ever had a negative dew point its getting annoying..

Btw about the rain is it going to rain at all this week?? As i would like to see some snow i haven't seen it in ages because its been so dry and since temps aren't going to get above 3c from today onwards it would be nice to see some snow.

Edited January 27, 2011 by kimmirut

[kimmirut]

Actually managed a frost under this constant thick black cloud really surprised!!!

Current conditions:

Temperature: -0.6c

Weather: cloudy with a very slight frost

Humidity: 75 percent

Dew point:

[kimmirut]

Another cold night

Current conditions;

Weather: cloudy

Temp: -4.3c

Humidity: 85 percent

Wind: none

Cloud: tons

[The watcher]

Next week should be pretty wet Kimmirut.

Faxes show a cold front pushing through on Sunday evening but as a dieing feature, so heaviest precipitation in the West, lightest/none at all in the East. Shouldn't receieve much from this front.

Monday we see 2 fronts pushing through aswell. Tuesday and Wednesday also look to be pretty wet with more fronts and a developing front/trough. Also a chance maybe of some hail showers on Tuesday with the 528 line over and around NI with -3/-4 850's for a brief 3-6 hour window.

Also, Thursday - Friday, we see a 36 hour period of -5/-6 850's over Northern, Western and Eastern parts of Ireland, with 500hpa around 528-534, chance here of wintry precipitation should the forecast be correct according to gfs120 hrs out.

So not an outright boring week ahead, things starting to liven up again from the Atlantic with some potent enough cold on the back end of pushing through LP's to produce something wintry. Cold Zonal is best known for producing surprise snowfall, when you wake up and either see a little dusting or a cm/two.

Edited January 29, 2011 by The watcher

[kimmirut]

Next week should be pretty wet Kimmirut.

Faxes show a cold front pushing through on Sunday evening but as a dieing feature, so heaviest precipitation in the West, lightest/none at all in the East. Shouldn't receieve much from this front.

Monday we see 2 fronts pushing through aswell. Tuesday and Wednesday also look to be pretty wet with more fronts and a developing front/trough. Also a chance maybe of some hail showers on Tuesday with the 528 line over and around NI with -3/-4 850's for a brief 3-6 hour window.

Also, Thursday - Friday, we see a 36 hour period of -5/-6 850's over Northern, Western and Eastern parts of Ireland, with 500hpa around 528-534, chance here of wintry precipitation should the forecast be correct according to gfs120 hrs out.

So not an outright boring week ahead, things starting to liven up again from the Atlantic with some potent enough cold on the back end of pushing through LP's to produce something wintry. Cold Zonal is best known for producing surprise snowfall, when you wake up and either see a little dusting or a cm/two.

Ok so pretty mixed with temps about 3c most of the time yea?? Thats what i'm getting from the 7 day forecast some sleet on snow on sunday (rain coming tomorrow?) monday and tuesday and the rest of the week ,we might actually get that all snow tomorrow because dew points here are low enough right now it is -6c ,-1c hmm what you think about tomorrow?

[kimmirut]

An alright day today got some snow about 20 minutes ago!!! Nice to see haven't seen it in an age, thursday looks good for snow some beefy showers mmm!!

Current Conditions:

Weather: Cloudy

Temperature: 1c and dropping.

Humidity: 80%

Dewpoint: -1.9c

Max today: 2c.

Min Today: -4.5c.

Wind: 0mph.

Expecting another frost tonight was good to see snow started about 6.20 and lasted to 6:50 it was snizzle the odd time large flakes youd have to be out in it to see it!

Edited January 29, 2011 by kimmirut

[The watcher]

Probably become too mild for snowfall tommorow night, winds will start to pickup from SW, so milder air starting to filter in and maxes of 5/6/7c through to Thursday. Could be cool nights if the timing is right and we don't have many evening fronts....but overall it'll in general be an average week next week, with the colder 36 hour period bringing down those milder first half temps.

[kimmirut]

Probably become too mild for snowfall tommorow night, winds will start to pickup from SW, so milder air starting to filter in and maxes of 5/6/7c through to Thursday. Could be cool nights if the timing is right and we don't have many evening fronts....but overall it'll in general be an average week next week, with the colder 36 hour period bringing down those milder first half temps.

Awk rite so a mixed bag any sign of proper cold not this 2c crap?? Looks really good for me on thursday, only problem is the wind will probably be w and the showers will hit donegal and i'll miss out i got it really good this december when the winds were Northernly, i got the brunt of every single shower without fail ended up way a foot and a few inches while places 10 miles away such as ballymoney had absolutely nothing pure green fields and i'm not joking, at one point Coleraine town which is 3 miles from me had no snow while i had about 5 inches!! Never seen anything so weird. Looking forward to thursday hopefully its similar temps to today so i can get a covering and the hopefully the showers are frequent and really heavy!! Want 10cm mmmm....

Current conditions:

Temperature: 0.5c

Weather: Cloudy.

Humdity: 85 %

Wind: None.

expecting a wee frost tonight maybe a strong one if this stubborn cloud clears off..

Edited January 29, 2011 by kimmirut

[kimmirut]

So excited for thursday looks like a band of snow coming wednesday night and then snow showers all thursday and snow on thursday night would love like 20cm mm...

Current conditions

Temperature: 1.0c

Humdity: 75%

Dew point: -2.8c.

Min temperature: -1c..

Weather: sunny.

A frost tonight again and then warming up on monday night and cooling down on tuesday and warming up on wednesday and then major cool down on thursday mmm!!

[Backtrack]

So excited for thursday looks like a band of snow coming wednesday night and then snow showers all thursday and snow on thursday night would love like 20cm mm...

Current conditions

Temperature: 1.0c

Humdity: 75%

Dew point: -2.8c.

Min temperature: -1c..

Weather: sunny.

A frost tonight again and then warming up on monday night and cooling down on tuesday and warming up on wednesday and then major cool down on thursday mmm!!

Sorry. You'd be lucky to get 0.00002 mm of snow. Don't get your hopes up, it won't snow. It's a high ground event. By high ground, I don't mean your location, I mean hills and mountains.

Thursday is still FI atm, so that precip will change, if not dissapear.

Edited January 30, 2011 by Backtrack