Virtual Chase Thread 2011

[Paul Sherman]

That Dryline Supercell has done a hard right turn as well now so maybe it is cycling and if it is going to happen then it could get it done in the next 30 minutes, Sunset in 45 minutes to an hour.

Paul S

[craig1uk]

Looks like Reeds underneath it on http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

[Paul Sherman]

Tornado reported on the Northern Most Supercell near Kildare, Charles Edwards was on this but his stream failed just as the Storm was wrapping up and getting ready to drop

Here is the NWS Warning at the time

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

644 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 644 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR KILDARE...

OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

[pottyprof]

There was a fantastic lightning bolt on Mike Gribble's camera a few mins ago. He's parked up atm with a good stream..

[Paul Sherman]

The Lightning on Gribbles Stream is Nuts, Beautiful Cg's raining down.

That Supercell looks like the one that hit the Stationery boundary at the right time and also moved more east than north, luck of the draw when the Supercells are lined up like that, had that a few times myself being on the tail end charlie only for the one further north to drop, funnily enough in the exact same area in 2009!

[pottyprof]

Some great lightning happening on Alec Jones' stream.......... When it works.. :lol:

[NL]

SPC have gone with a moderate risk for today, with a 10%> tornado chance and have a hatched area indicating that they expect EF2-EF5 in most of Iowa and southern Minnesota.

...SYNOPSIS...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST SATURDAY WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF THE UPPER MS

VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHERE VERY

LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER

AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH

VALLEY...SEWD INTO SC.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Gorky]

Day 2 also mentioning that is it quite possible they will upgrade for High Risk tomorrow. Not sure many people would have put the first High risk of the year all the way up in Wisconsin in early April if that comes off....

[Paul Sherman]

As expected on the last page of this thread Moderate for Saturday and almost certain High Risk for Sunday 10th, the models dont get much better if you are looking for a Significant Outbreak, the only nagging problem will be the Chase Terrain more especially tomorrow over Wisconsin where believe it or not the Lakes are still frozen :lol:

My Thoughts on my Blog below which also includes some writings about how important Outflow Boundaries are, The areas these risks are in reminds me a lot of May 24th 2008 when everyone busted chasing blue skies and rainbows in a Moderate Risk in Nebraska when a Lone Supercell latched onto an old outflow boundary from the day before's convection and dropped 9 Tornadoes from a Cycling Right moving Supercell in Northern Kingfisher County!

http://plainschaser.blogspot.com/2011/04/saturday-9th-april-2011-chase-target.html

Paul S

[nsrobins]

Nebraska City, NE!

Inhibition dissolves by 21.30Z; massice CAPE and EHIs >8.

Some evidence of the Sherman OFB on WV images could intensify supercells riding ENE along WF

[Paul Sherman]

Nice CU Field's Showing up - Expect an MD To be issued pretty soon.

Dryline also getting agitated from C Kansas down towards the Woodward area.

[Arron]

Such a pretty picture that dryline

[Nick F]

I see SPC have issued an MD (Tornado Watch likely) for far eastern NE and western half of IA, but can't seem to access it yet ...

[Arron]

Nice cell gone up in Eastern NE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0500 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 092200Z - 092300Z

WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS ERN NEB AND NWRN

IA...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR OLU TO NEAR MCW. STRONG HEATING

ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN NEB HAS ALLOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD TO EVOLVE

WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CLUSTERING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE

SEVERAL DEEPER UPDRAFTS MAY SOON FORM THUNDERSTORMS. THERMODYNAMIC

ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS

OF 3000 J/KG. INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT

ONE-TWO HOURS AND THUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG THE WARM

FRONT WHERE SHEAR WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR

TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

[Arron]

Anyone else having issues with severestudios? Can't get anything to load

[Paul Sherman]

Loving the look of the latest radar scan on that Westpoint Supercell.

She is right moving and taking on a classic Tornadic Look.

Can this get the job done and bag an early tube for the Chasers converging on this cell, another Storm gone up to the West South West of this one tracking ENE As well.

Paul S

[Gorky]

Andy Gabrielson just drove into a dusty tornado for the fun of it.... amazing...

Check his live stream on www.Severestudios.com

Edited April 10, 2011 by Gorky

[Arron]

Same one as Adam Lucio too on TVN

[Paul Sherman]

Looked like a Gustnado to me but hey ho lets not get into that arguement again

Btw Lovely Inflow Notch on the latest radar scan

[Gorky]

Was definitely very strong tight rotation on the one on Andy's cam. Never panned up so no idea where it was in relation to the overall storm and whether it was connected to a mesocyclone. From the bottom 50 feet of it, it certainly looked tornadic though I'm not in a position to confirm that obviously

[Paul Sherman]

Now THATS A TORNADO

[Gorky]

http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/374_ben-prusia.php

Definite tornado there

[icbinb]

A bit too close for comfort!

[Paul Sherman]

Btw Lovely Inflow Notch on the latest radar scan

You could tell that a Tornado was imminant from the radar scan about 15 minutes ago, lovely Inflow Notch and Hook on the Supercell, Big rotating wall cloud and bang.

Lots of Chasers on Chasertv got some great footage as well.

Edit: Latest Radar Scan shows the Supercell Cycling and should have another attempt in the next 10 mins. This is going to rampage to the East for a while yet

[Paul Sherman]

Mapleton has significant Damage from the last Tornado, the pictures from further back are stunning, near in not great at all, bah who needs to be right in the bloody thing