Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Coast]

A brand new thread to discuss convective potential including hail, thunderstorms and tornadoes

[vortex_liam]

dew points are certainly ALOT better than yesterday! Hopefully any imports may survive the channel ;S

[Coast]

I'm not as certain (just yet), that the potential is as high as we might like:

12z sounding again for me, with an eye on Dorset if it looks favourable later in the afternoon

[tomp456]

lovin' the post above;).......

lets hope so, eh!

urgh, vortex liams post that is

[Jane Louise]

Thanks Coast it's going to be a few days of nail biting Lol. I shall be keeping a very close eye on the NW radar today and especially at the weekend . Good luck again everyone lol

[Stuart]

Thanks coast all I have to do is keep eyes on the sky and the radar Good luck all

Edited April 20, 2011 by Stuart

[Coast]

Thanks coast all I have to do is keep eyes on the sky and the radar Good luck all

I reckon that it will be down to that for a few days, but lets not forget we still have a full season of potential in front of us yet and the early signs are encouraging with this lovely warm weather.

I dont want to sound over cautious etc, but we still have the memories of a couple of years of expectation that turned to nothing, and I am trying to remain chilled about it!

[vortex_liam]

i think my weather station is broken my temp is 13.0°C but my dew is 7... its stayed as 7 since a hour ago!

[Coast]

I currently have an indicated dew-point of 8.5°C (Wet Bulb 11.7°C ) and a humidity of 65%

[Harry]

Humidity appears up - much hazier start to this morning than yesterday.

Some decent Ac, some Ac Cas, early this morning. Burning away though (as yesterday)

As the last few days, I think chances of showers/storms are very slim

[Lynxus]

Well, This is annoying.

Estofex have ZERO warning for the UK, UKASF have no warning.

However,

NW forcast shows thunder for glos today and tomorrow.

GFS points to a possibility..

Fingers crossed.

Gonne be watching the visible sat like a hawk today.

[Coast]

Well, This is annoying.

Estofex have ZERO warning for the UK, UKASF have no warning.

I just think currently it's too dry up in the atmosphere

[Costa Del Fal]

Id say todays chances are now pretty minimal. Better instability later in the week. Go outside and enjoy the sun today is my advice-not to chase invisible storms. :lol: Should one miraculously crop up then well done. :lol:

[Sprites]

Id say todays chances are now pretty minimal. Better instability later in the week. Go outside and enjoy the sun today is my advice-not to chase invisible storms. :lol: Should one miraculously crop up then well done. :lol:

Lol yes it doesnt matter how many times you check the models and forecasts, storms will wait untill your not watching then erupt, but not untill they are ready....The best way i found to obtain storm pics is to leave a pocket radio on A.M. and check the clouds from time to time, a low tech way to watch for storms .

[Alex95]

The weekend will hopefully be more fruitful - many western areas could become very warm and thundery, as far north as SW Scotland. Fairly decent potential on the GFS. I know its early, but I don't see much before then.

[Static Prevails]

Friday and Saturday have been upgraded for me! Yay!

[A.J]

At the risk of being labelled a party pooper, my thoughts are to down play thunderstorm potential....Yes there may well be some convective energy, yes the air might well be quite bouyant, but where's the real lift and forcing mechanism?...I still think that essentially, the South East will remain bone dry today, the flow of air into the SE is dry, and can't hold much moisture (see the low dew points progged for this afternoon) Looking at projected wind field patterns, I'm still plumping for somewhere in Oxfordshire as the most likeliest place for a shower or storm, converging surface winds there later on today might just give enough forcing and lift to trigger something...Anything that does develop is likely to drift slowly NW and die out towards sun down....As far as imports go, there's little mid-level instability, suggesting a low risk of elevated imports, and if any surface based storms do develop over Northern France, I don't think that they will get very far over the English Channel before the life gets zapped out of them.....

Hope the moderating team don't mind, but for those of you without access to the NW Extra datacentre, I recommend visiting the UK Skywarn site, you can create your own custom made charts with a whole plethora of thunderstorm risk parameters...I've found it a valuable resource in addition to NW Extra..... SkyWarn UK

[vortex_liam]

Nw extra is still the best lol!

I agree with oxfordshire as they had quite a few heavy thundery showers last year as its only 10 miles down the road!

[Coast]

At the risk of being labelled a party pooper

I would consider you a realist aj, but that doesn't mean I'm not looking forward to possibilities over the Bank Holiday Weekend and then into May!

[A.J]

I would consider you a realist aj, but that doesn't mean I'm not looking forward to possibilities over the Bank Holiday Weekend and then into May!

I'm the same, and I'd give my right ball for a stonking good thunderstorm, and have my eyes firmly set on saturday!

[NL]

Isn't that half the fun though? Looking for storm potential, watching developments, hoping that other 'ingredients' come into play. I still watch even though I've a snowball in hell's chance of anything around these parts. All I can say is keep watching and enjoy the ride..!

[Costa Del Fal]

If theres anything i look out for on the GFS storm charts its to see if the Storm risk is above 50% because it doesnt go above this value very often but when it does thats when i really think there may be a good storm or two. And This Saturday is showing just that right now.

[Harry]

I think irrespective of what the storm risk suggests, I'm looking more for an injection of moisture!

Convergence lines are great, providing there is moisture. After all, a cloud is a clump of water vapour which has condensed due to cooling at higher altitudes. The air can cool at higher altitudes, but with little moisture, there won't be many clouds...!!

I think tomorrow and Friday there is decent potential for moisture...by Saturday and Sunday however, moisture is cut off from the South yet again as a more easterly regime is reinstated.

If the southerly persists into the weekend bringing with it moisture, game on IMO. If the current fax chart prevails, then I'm afraid I would hold back the excitement.

[Stuart]

Look like the look weekend still looking Great for storms just hope it dont get down gread much now :D

Chief Forecaster’s View On Saturday, although isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms are possible, most places should remain dry.

So things are looking up

Edited April 20, 2011 by Stuart

[dave48]

Will be keeping an eye on the radar today just in case but a dry day for most.

I mentioned saturdays potential last night. The chief forecasters view on the Met Office:

'On Saturday, although isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms are possible, most places should remain dry.'

We will have to see how the models continue to develop on this. They have been consistently showing a lot of CAPE at least, for quite a widespread area.

Edit: Would agree with Harry, moisture is letting us down.GFS progs more for saturday, combined with good temps breaks out CAPE of 1500 across central parts.

Edited April 20, 2011 by dave48