Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[ZONE 51]

Wow! I wish I could've witnessed it.

We've been downgraded for here on Saturday. Friday still looks good though!

it was a good one, just wish so much to of snapped it, would like to get some data on it, but i dont think its possible, to small scale i think, only forecasting small scale wind is possible not sure about after events so small. was not small when ya there was like a mini tornado!

i think some upgrades for the weekend as more moisture gets pulled in, we are at some point due for some imports im sure.

off for a bit, be back later with some data..for tomo!

Edited April 20, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[The watcher]

it was a good one, just wish so much to of snapped it, would like to get some data on it, but i dont think its possible, to small scale i think, only forecasting small scale wind is possible not sure about after events so small. was not small when ya there was like a mini tornado!

i think some upgrades for the weekend as more moisture gets pulled in, we are at some point due for some imports im sure.

off for a bit, be back later with some data..for tomo!

I see these things every year at the summer festivals in the midlands. They can pick up tents and lift them 50ft into the air. Tend to get them on sunny days with temps above 20c and light surface winds.

Anyways, seen some AC and AC-CA today...but this was just preceding a dieing cold front. Few spits of large raindrops in the past few hours with a moderate shower recently.

[ZONE 51]

Storm Watch Day 3

Their is the potential for clouds to reach height to form isolated moderate/heavy showers in some areas today(thursday) more moisture in pockets today may be enough to set of a thunderstorm if clouds can top the lid and develop further, yesterday some cloud did develop into cumulonimbus almost there! today we have slightly more potential, anyone in my area its also worth keeping check on the sky around the south east! i won't post up the charts as its best to do that first thing as im sure someone will do that later. good luck on anything interesting breaking out!!

some places over the next few days are likely to have a good chance of full blown thunderstorms!

one more ingredient needed and thats moisture, if we bake a cake it won't rise without the self raising flour or baking powder added to plain!

so there we are ,im off for some sleep after a tonne of video editing.

[Coast]

ESTOFEX on board today then:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 21 Apr 2011 06:00 to Fri 22 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 20 Apr 2011 13:06

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for Iberia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the N Maghreb States mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A blocking high is present over the central parts of Europe, leading to stable conditions in most places. The greatest chance for some organized convective storms is anticipated for the Iberian Peninsula and N Morocco / N Algeria ahead of an upper cut-off low. Another cut-off low over the E Mediterranean translates slowly eastwards.

DISCUSSION

...France, Benelux, Germany, British Isles...

Within the upper ridge, local spots of slightly augmented LL moisture and convergent LL flow are found where some low-end CAPE may be created by diurnal heating. As vertical shear is almost zero in most of these places, storms should be poorly organized and severe weather is unlikely. One can't rule out an isolated hail / wind gust event but this is likely below the level 1 threshold.

Looking better, still only a slight risk but Wales and the Midlands today?

[Stuart]

Big downgread of storms risk around the uk ovr the weeknd

Edited April 21, 2011 by Stuart

[dvdfjojo]

That little hole of blue in the cape - that'd be me then :-)

[Paul Sherman]

I could not chase this even if I did not have 3 kids around ...............But

Chase Target would be a Triangle from Milton Keynes to Leamington Spa over to Evesham for something Topographical to go up over the Chilterns and move North Westwards.

Much better chance of a Cb becoming something a bit better than Popcorn Convection today

[vortex_liam]

That green bit of cape is me lmao... Chuck norris just burped!

[MP-R]

An outside chance of something for the West Country today though maybe tomorrow and Saturday will be better, Saturday still looking the best with an 81% chance of a storm with a prediction of 8mm of rain. Will have to see how it goes.

[Lynxus]

Thanks coast, I love quickly going through your charts, Saves me a lot of time hunting then down 1 by 1..

Anyway,

Yeah. I agree, Theresa slight chance of storms / thundery showers today.

Id say mainly for the west / mid ( North of m4 , South of brum. )

I personally cant see the temps reaching 23c here as its very misty here at the moment but that will burn off quickly, so i suppose if it clears up nicely then we may get some good heating going on.

Cape is minimal imo and probably not even worth thinking about today.

You never know, we may get a nice heat island kick something off...

Another day..

Here we go.

[Coast]

Thanks coast, I love quickly going through your charts, Saves me a lot of time hunting then down 1 by 1..

Pleasure! I'm sorry they are so big, but they are mostly hot-linked and the forum software eventually resizes them. Hopefully it is enough information for people to get their own idea on what is likely for the day and where. For a real guide to what to expect from the day in terms of storms, you have to look at the stuff Nick F and the more knowledgeable members impart to us.

[Jane Louise]

And..... this is what's showing where I am.

http://webcam.andygoodwin.com/

Fingers crossed.

[Costa Del Fal]

Im not believing the GFS idea of a sudden quick breakdown at the weekend. Around Sunday its 850hpa temps are near the bottom of the pile compared to the other members who keep the warm air going. Then again it does turn warm/very warm again next week anyway. :lol:

Today still an Isolated risk but conditions better. If i had to say where somewhere had the best storm chance today it would probably be around Oxford/Evesham/Worcester.

[MP-R]

Lots of altocumulus castellanus floating about on the breeze this morning with warm sunshine. Already 16.8C and feeling warm.

[Coast]

Need those DP's to keep rising:

[gottolovethisweather]

Need those DP's to keep rising:

Hello Coast.

Certainly from my location the temperature trend and subsequent dew points are heading quickly in the right direction so here's hoping for some lucky folk!

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Newbury, Berkshire

[The watcher]

Across the water here in Ireland (du Nord) the DP is above 8c, humidity 76% and Outdoor temp (sheltered from the sun) is 12.5c, would expect the DP to rise to around 10/11c today in my area, which bodes well for any Southern areas in England, however, we should have more moisture here due to having some rainfall and a dieing CF closing in last night.

[NUT]

I expected the risk to completely go for us at 1 point for the weekend and all of a sudden does look to have disappeared but still time for it to come back (Not counting it out yet) disappointed too that it does seem to want to cool down a lot quicker up here than expected but we shall see

[Nick F]

Have issued a convective/storm forecast for today, though I must emphasis that is a small risk, and it could end up a bust all round!:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Stuart]

Thanks Nick hope you Right

[Coast]

hope you Right

If I could 'gift' a storm, it would be to Stuart and Jane Louise! :lol:

[Stuart]

sat dont look good for me any more so i need to go and

[dave48]

Good agreement from all the forecasts I have seen on todays isolated but more substantial risk. Will be keeping an eye on the radar later.

Lot's of Ac Cas here in Wiltshire today, in much thicker bands than yesterday.

[Lynxus]

Still VERY murky here. ( White sky.. Not blue.. )

Anyway.. Pub lunch me thinks.. Going to need to keep my strength up for when where SUPERCELLS come here hehehehe.

if only.

[weatherobsuk]

RASP keen to give thundery showers over the Lake District overnight, with a small risk to the North of London moving NE out over the Wash later on in the morning. Throughout the day it's also interesting to see how RASP is giving lift over North Snowdonia and feeding heavy precip out over Anglesey. So if I was a betting man and wanted some photogenic tCU/CB images i'd chose somewhere close to Llandudno as a 'base', the E-W A55 also gives ease moving into Cheshire if the risk moves into there.

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/RASPtable.html