Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Mesoscale]

looks as if the london area on sunday has 60% chance of a storm. the only chance all week.

[Costa Del Fal]

All this talk of the west......your getting carried away, i think these showers will be able to pop up just about anywhere..

The same can only be said for the East when its your turn sometimes. :lol:

[camiscool]

our turn... cant remember the last time i had a thunderstorm :s

[Stuart]

GFs still showing great sorm risk over the weeknd

[camiscool]

i think the south coast will do well this weekend...looking at the gfs there is a massive storm risk over practically the whole of France. This could lead to some juicy stuff coming up from france

[dave48]

Convergence line has set up now and is moving west, it is quite overcast here now with a lot of convective cloud bubbled up, seems to be capped though.

Edited April 20, 2011 by dave48

[Static Prevails]

Now we're closer to the point, what are everyone else's opinions on my area? To me, things are looking good, but what does everyone else think?

[A.J]

Convergence line has set up now and is moving west, it is quite overcast here now with a lot of convective cloud bubbled up, seems to be capped though.

Yes there is a cap in place over southern parts of England...Using the GFS overlays on the NW radar, they show a moderate cap over the south east (140j/kg) and a weak cap over the west country (60 or so j/kg)..add that to the lack of moisture available in the lower atmosphere, et voila, diddly squat in the way of storms

Now we're closer to the point, what are everyone else's opinions on my area? To me, things are looking good, but what does everyone else think?

In other words....''will in thunder in (insert town)"..... :lol:

[Static Prevails]

Yes there is a cap in place over southern parts of England...Using the GFS overlays on the NW radar, they show a moderate cap over the south east (140j/kg) and a weak cap over the west country (60 or so j/kg)..add that to the lack of moisture available in the lower atmosphere, et voila, diddly squat in the way of storms

In other words....''will in thunder in (insert town)"..... :lol:

Erm, yes. I'm just extremely anxious.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Erm, yes. I'm just extremely anxious.

Extremely anxious? You'd best stay away from storm chasing then, you'd hyperventilate

[Lynxus]

Well, There certainly seems to be some convection pepping up.

cap can be eroded later in the day ( an hour or so normally.. )

However, I highly doubt anything will happen once the surface heating is gone. Its only April..

Anyway..

The below pretty much matches the Sat image.

Eeeny weeny amount of cape.

[Static Prevails]

Extremely anxious? You'd best stay away from storm chasing then, you'd hyperventilate

Haha, it's just that I REALLY want a storm so much if I don't get one I'll... erm... die.

[Lynxus]

Haha, it's just that I REALLY want a storm so much if I don't get one I'll... erm... die.

Its only April.. Id be worried come end of sept..

[Costa Del Fal]

UKMO and NAE breaking out some Isolated showers tomorrow and an Estofex forecast thrown into the mix. Tomorrow is the best chance yet but nothing more than Isolated showers/storms though.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Why does the GFS always ludicrously over do the storm chance? I think if it was divided by 10 it would be more close to the mark on most days.

[Alex95]

Its only April.. Id be worried come end of sept..

We never seem to get storms in Summer anymore - last year the biggest storms were at the end of September and the end of November!

Tomorrow should see a few isolated thundery showers over Wales I think, with the odd shower elsewhere in the West. The real fun and games will hopefully come Friday - Sunday with a risk of evening thunderstorms 3 days in a row, with the risk mainly in the South West on Friday, transferring Northwards so that the risk is mainly the North West by Sunday. If I don't get a storm in the Lake District this weekend I will... wait until next time.

Whatever happens, I'm going to enjoy temperatures in the low-mid twenties.

Edited April 20, 2011 by alza

[NUT]

I think we are going to get something next few days as GFS is showing it and more especially the reason that I have noticed since about 2003 that we often get our best storms here during April and May. For they 2 reasons alone, I am going for us to have a storm somepoint next few days if not weeks

[Sprites]

I'm somewhat disappointed with myself for having (again!) been optimistic for the possibility of consecutive days of thunderstorm potential this week. Sometimes I just take swift glances at the model output and start making bad calls.

Anyway, having had time to take a look at the lastest ECMWF run, I'm becoming ever so slightly more confident that Saturday will see a more realistic chance of thunderstorm potential. Unlike the GFS, the ECMWF progs slightly better height falls from the west across the UK, and with the likelihood of reliable forcing mechanisms becoming available, such as regions of defined surface convergence and upper air disturbances given better height falls, thunderstorm initiation should become more likely.

However, the biggest concern, quite clearly, is the complete lack of movement aloft, with shear non-existent. Personally I don't think the amount of moisture will be anywhere near as much of a concern as the vertical wind shear environment. Perhaps the GFS is (once again) overdoing moisture but if surface dewpoints can reach into the upper 50s or extreme low 60s F, then that'll provide ample instability for decent thunderstorms.

The GFS is ALWAYS ramping up the dewpoints ,if it reads 16c ,you can bet the actual dewpoint temp is around 10c lol :o

[Andy Bown]

The skies are much more dynamic now in Wiltshire. Have seen several turkey towers going up and a lot of cumulus development.

Dave, there were a few showers on the radar between 17.00 - 19.00 which look like they formed over the Mendips and drifted towards the

Weston Super Mare area before dying out.

[Mesoscale]

its a desert around these parts....even dubai gets more storms then we do.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Mesoscale

[Lynxus]

its a desert around these parts....even dubai gets more storms then we do.

Im actually glad for the dry weather..

My garden has actually started to get DRY!!!!!

The MOSS is actually dying ( and the birds are digging it up for me and taking it away lol )

Ive never seen parts of my garden dry. it just never happens!

[weatherobsuk]

Its actually a good thing the cap over us doesn't erode away quite so easily everyday into this warm spell. Otherwise we'd be contending with cloud in the morning from the remnants of the overnight storm/s. The added bonus is that diurnal heating now has had 72hr doing its work over the central mainland. CAPE will be high from this, and any storms in the future that do arise will be instantaneous in formation. Like we saw on the convergence line today in the SE one frame its clear and the next the tCU's are already starting to form.

[ZONE 51]

we have the heat building over the days, its the warmest evening here so far, and with time something got to break out..bigtime! its likely for most at some point.

today ive been reading this thread ,as i do! been an interesting day for me, was Ac Cas at 8am this melted away to build some huge cumulus mid morning with small cumulonimbus on the northwest sky around 3-4pm then this melted away with some more Ac Cas this evening, but something exciting did happen today other than interesting skies.. i spotted a dust spinner! it was incredible and not further than 30feet away, i would estimate its height as around 10-15feet and couple of foot wide, lasting around 20secs, by time i spotted it (and many other witnesses did) and got out my camera it stopped, this leaving a layer of debris at the junction of the road it span up. i have seen them before and this was top, but the best was at santapod raceway up North a few years back..that one was a big one.

( is there any data that can show were these spinners happened , wind data...?)

location of todays dust spinner - weybridge Surrey.

Edited April 20, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Static Prevails]

we have the heat building over the days, its the warmest evening here so far, and with time something got to break out..bigtime! its likely for most at some point.

today ive been reading this thread ,as i do! been an interesting day for me, was Ac Cas at 8am this melted away to build some huge cumulus mid morning with small cumulonimbus on the northwest sky around 3-4pm then this melted away with some more Ac Cas this evening, but something exciting did happen today other than interesting skies.. i spotted a dust spinner! it was incredible and not further than 30feet away, i would estimate its height as around 10-15feet and couple of foot wide, lasting around 20secs, by time i spotted it (and many other witnesses did) and got out my camera it stopped, this leaving a layer of debris at the junction of the road it span up. i have seen them before and this was top, but the best was at santapod raceway up North a few years back..that one was a big one.

( is there any data that can show were these spinners happened , wind data...?)

location of todays dust spinner - weybridge Surrey.

Wow! I wish I could've witnessed it.

We've been downgraded for here on Saturday. Friday still looks good though!

[Costa Del Fal]

We've been downgraded for here on Saturday. Friday still looks good though!

No point going upgrade/downgrade on each run tbh! :lol:

Trends are better not each individual run and at the end of the day with the GFS it could be totally wrong. I must say im kind of having my doubts wrt to the rest of the week now. Im thinking any showers will be very few and far between now and much drier than the GFS makes it out to be however id love to be wrong!