Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Lynxus]

Sat24 is showing it coming to nothing really.

http://sat24.com/en/gb

Lets hope the weekend brings some fun

[vortex_liam]

Alot of it going up atm

[Stuart]

...France, Benelux, Germany, British Isles...

Within the upper ridge, local spots of slightly augmented LL moisture and convergent LL flow are found where some low-end CAPE may be created by diurnal heating. As vertical shear is almost zero in most of these places, storms should be poorly organized and severe weather is unlikely. One can't rule out an isolated hail / wind gust event but this is likely below the level 1 threshold.

http://www.estofex.org/

[dave48]

...France, Benelux, Germany, British Isles...

Within the upper ridge, local spots of slightly augmented LL moisture and convergent LL flow are found where some low-end CAPE may be created by diurnal heating. As vertical shear is almost zero in most of these places, storms should be poorly organized and severe weather is unlikely. One can't rule out an isolated hail / wind gust event but this is likely below the level 1 threshold.

http://www.estofex.org/

Promising forecast from ESTOFEX that goes along with what most are saying on here.

[vortex_liam]

brewing up looks to be moving east then going to move north at a snails pace i dont think we'll see this

Edited April 20, 2011 by vortex_liam

[Supacell]

I can only chase on friday so really need for the weather to play ball and provide storms on friday for me please. At present things aren't too shabby for friday with decent cape and more moisture than currently. Still up in the air though (pardon the pun lol)

[Coast]

overlooked the bit about Dundee

You can register for freebies:

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/freeimages.html

[Arnie Pie]

You can register for freebies:

http://www.sat.dunde...freeimages.html

Cheers Coast

just registered

[DanN]

Looking on the Satrep images, they have an upper level low around the same area we are looking at (just off the south east and over france)

And looking at the 500mb/vorticity charts does show up a small feature in the same area?

Does anybody know if that's likely to be responsible for the small amount of convection we can see?

[Neilsouth]

Saw some good growth towards canterbury way today, was the type that would grown into storms in the heat of summer... Alas as we hit midday, gone

[Coast]

Saw some good growth towards canterbury way today, was the type that would grown into storms in the heat of summer... Alas as we hit midday, gone

Any towers will hit that dry air above and from there it's a 'no show'

[MP-R]

Unless my eyes are deceiving me, that looks to be a cell going up to the west of Norwich:

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

No rain yet but some definite towers over that way.

I'd be very surprised not to see a thunderstorm over the next 5 days considering the forecast temperatures, direction of airmass, humidity and declining pressure.

[Coast]

I'd be very surprised not to see a thunderstorm over the next 5 days considering the forecast temperatures, direction of airmass, humidity and declining pressure.

Chief Forecaster's view at the MetO for us in the SE:

On Saturday, although isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms are possible, most places should remain dry. Although our forecasts are increasingly accurate, observations and forecasts are being continually updated and there may be occasions when our forecasters have new information that indicates significant changes in the forecast. On these occasions we will use the Chief Forecasters View to provide an update on the forecast

This update should be considered to supersede the symbol forecast. An example situation could be if rain is expected to move away from an area more slowly than indicated by the symbol forecast.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Staying generally dry and warm with hazy sunshine for the Easter weekend, just a small risk of a shower in places. Cooling onshore coastal breezes though.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathertext/index.html?se

[camiscool]

Small risk grr :s

[dave48]

Unless my eyes are deceiving me, that looks to be a cell going up to the west of Norwich:

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

No rain yet but some definite towers over that way.

I'd be very surprised not to see a thunderstorm over the next 5 days considering the forecast temperatures, direction of airmass, humidity and declining pressure.

If that does produce precip then it was perfectly picked out by the met office invent precip prediction. That pointed to one good cell in that area.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Tomorrow's potential not being downgraded on the 12z run of the GFS like the other days have been. Infact if anything CAPE is marginally increased with precip shown breaking out around oragraphically enhanced regions i.e Wales and the Pennines.

[Supacell]

I am expecting Crewe to be in a good place come friday and its around there whereby i am currently planning to head towards.

[snowfall09]

Small amounts or PPN now being detected from them small cells over East Anglia

[Cheshire Freeze]

I am expecting Crewe to be in a good place come friday and its around there whereby i am currently planning to head towards.

Well the GFS is showing the precip to the east of here over the Pennines and to the west over Wales during Friday due to orographic enhancement. What leads you to think that Crewe has a good chance? If I was a betting man I'd say you would be best around Buxton, Macclesfield, east Manchester areas

[dave48]

The skies are much more dynamic now in Wiltshire. Have seen several turkey towers going up and a lot of cumulus development.

[Supacell]

Well the GFS is showing the precip to the east of here over the Pennines and to the west over Wales during Friday due to orographic enhancement. What leads you to think that Crewe has a good chance? If I was a betting man I'd say you would be best around Buxton, Macclesfield, east Manchester areas

Probably that i would imagine anything that gets going will head west, although having checked again we will be in a southerly stream by friday which would suggest areas you say would be best.

Looking forward to the first possible chase opportunity for this year though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Probably that i would imagine anything that gets going will head west, although having checked again we will be in a southerly stream by friday which would suggest areas you say would be best.

Looking forward to the first possible chase opportunity for this year though.

Yes it does look interesting mate. Fingers crossed that we can catch a storm and a bit of rainfall too. I'm working Friday otherwise I'd have asked you to come and pick me up

[weatherobsuk]

Buxton/Macclesfield/Pennine area's sounds good to me. Top of Eccles Pike for anyone with a vehicle has some good views overlooking the moors and North/West of Manchester City-Centre itself. Sponds Hill is also a good vantage point but the 1/4 mile walk to the summit may be tricky (especially ontop if your caught out having to walk 15 mins back to the car park.)

[Static Prevails]

Well the GFS is showing the precip to the east of here over the Pennines and to the west over Wales during Friday due to orographic enhancement. What leads you to think that Crewe has a good chance? If I was a betting man I'd say you would be best around Buxton, Macclesfield, east Manchester areas

...And me... :winky:

Edited April 20, 2011 by IAmJohnnyDisco

[camiscool]

All this talk of the west......your getting carried away, i think these showers will be able to pop up just about anywhere..