Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Alex95]

Considering it is April, Saturday's storm chance is quite exceptional. Looks like it will be 23°C with a chance of thunderstorms in the Lake District on Saturday, something I haven't experienced there this early before! The storm risk charts show a risk of 60-70% for many western areas, but I think that'll translate into scattered thunderstorms with large dry areas. I'll settle for that though, its interesting

EDIT: And dewpoints will be 15-18°C. Not bad for April! It snowed in the Lake District on the 15th April 2008, what a difference this year.

There is a 50% risk in places today and tomorrow, but with limited moisture that should translate into isolated light showers. Its on Friday that there could be a few thundery ones, woth a much greater risk on Saturday. On Sunday the risk declines to mainly Scotland, Ireland and France.

Edited April 20, 2011 by alza

[Static Prevails]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/chesterfield_forecast_weather.html

Look at Friday...

[Jane Louise]

Still a high storm risk for me until Sunday .Even today! LOL. I think the weekend will be more favourable :drunk:Will keep my eyes to the skies :lol:

[weatherobsuk]

Could the fact the reason were not seeing much precip on the charts is that any storms that do form from now on (being mid-week as forecasted) will be IC/CC type and thus reducing the chance of much rainfall.

[DeepSnow]

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Look at Friday...

Yes they have that for my area in south wales for saturday! 24C with thundery showers, though yesterday it didn't show this so I would take it with a pinch of salt for now! Sorry and I know this annoys some people, but I have seen a lot on here about Englands chance, what about Wales, are we likely to see anything over the next few days? as a few sites such as netweather and metoffice have given a fair chance at times!

[Static Prevails]

Yes they have that for my area in south wales for saturday! 24C with thundery showers, though yesterday it didn't show this so I would take it with a pinch of salt for now! Sorry and I know this annoys some people, but I have seen a lot on here about Englands chance, what about Wales, are we likely to see anything over the next few days? as a few sites such as netweather and metoffice have given a fair chance at times!

I'm not taking it as gospel, it's just good the Met Office are getting onboard.

[Harry]

I'm not taking it as gospel, it's just good the Met Office are getting onboard.

The MetO have many strengths, but recent years have shown that forecasting convective weather is not one of them.

Additionally, the majority of the models (GFS and ECM especially) struggle massively with convective weather in the SE corner of the UK in particular. Many a time, particularly with westerly/south westerly setups (of which this is not admittedly), the SE is shown as low risk (or if not low, significantly lower than the rest of the UK) - the reason I focus here is because I am far more familiar with convective weather/forecasts in this region, because I live here.

My view on the up and coming few days based on the 06z models is the following - if the scandinavian high regress slightly and/or the easterly prominence weakens, then I think the outlook for many improves quite significantly. If the scandinavian high remains as is progged, outlook for many despite the 1000-1500 JKg-1 CAPE is not promising IMO. The best chance at present IMO is Friday. Southerly flow, higher levels of moisture, a slightly greater influence of Low pressure from the West.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Harry

[Azores Hi]

Small cell just popped up to the north of me i Ashford , Kent.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

[Harry]

Small cell just popped up to the north of me i Ashford , Kent.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Any more details matey? Looks quite encouraging on the satellite imagery, though can't see anything on radar (I need to subscribe to NW again lol)!!!

Pretty decent looking Cu field developing across much Kesurex at the moment actually - looking outside here in London, signs of something convective beginning to form in a hazy looking sky.........it's got my full attention!!!!

The red zone indicates a possible convective development along with a Cu/Ac which has just appeared. The orange zone indicates what appears to be a feed of moisture trailing back across continent - note just to the right (and of what you can see to the left) know signs of moisture, indicating this is a relatively narrow zone of moisture.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Harry

[willinkent]

Any more details matey? Looks quite encouraging on the satellite imagery, though can't see anything on radar (I need to subscribe to NW again lol)!!!

Pretty decent looking Cu field developing across much Kesurex at the moment actually - looking outside here in London, signs of something convective beginning to form in a hazy looking sky.........it's got my full attention!!!!!

gone bit dark n cloudy here in faversham 24c tho.....

[NL]

That small cell in Kent has just shown up on radar, bearing in mind that the radar is 15mins behind looks like it could develop into something more substantial.

[knocker]

The MetO have many strengths, but recent years have shown that forecasting convective weather is not one of them.

Given that this a rather sweeping statement I presume I can take it as read that you have done a detailed analysis of MetO convective forecasting over the last ten years or so?

[Azores Hi]

Any more details matey? Looks quite encouraging on the satellite imagery, though can't see anything on radar (I need to subscribe to NW again lol)!!!

Pretty decent looking Cu field developing across much Kesurex at the moment actually - looking outside here in London, signs of something convective beginning to form in a hazy looking sky.........it's got my full attention!!!!!

Sorry I'm at work and it's panic stations here! Looked threatening and was building nicely but convection looked quite shallow.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Azores Hi

[weatherobsuk]

I was saying to the family yesterday that although the models may be showing one thing, its up to human interpretation for them to grasp a reasonable public forecast which then enables them to (as confidently) predict where and when such storms are likely to occur. What the Met Office can't do however is say that at 4pm there'll be a storm directly over Oxford 24hrs in advance. They can however forecast that the likelyhood is there going from what the data is giving them.

As with anything all your going off is a computer prediction, real-world events may induce forcing through topography. Convergence setups and then subsequently the nature of what the storm does itself depending on its characteristics.

[dave48]

Ac Cas streaming in here in slim bands. Quite an unusual site this far west.

[Harry]

Given that this a rather sweeping statement I presume I can take it as read that you have done a detailed analysis of MetO convective forecasting over the last ten years or so?

Short answer, no I haven't. Nearly everything I say on this forum is completely conjecture, as I am in no way qualified in anything relating to meteorology (though I did study Physics at higher level during sixth form).

Edited April 20, 2011 by Harry

[NL]

Looks like the cap is going to hold for the time being down in the SE, that cell although trying its best is not showing any signs of developing into a Cb anytime soon. Maybe Oxford could be in for a shout later though with higher surface temps and a thinner cap any Cu's could punch through.

[camiscool]

i dont see that cell on the radar...

[NL]

i dont see that cell on the radar...

Completely collapsed again, go back to 1:20pm on NW 5min radar and you'll see it for 2 frames..

[Stuart]

I think Caps will hold Strong tell the weekend

Edited April 20, 2011 by Stuart

[Harry]

On the plus side, the sky is full of convection to my south, but very limited in terms of ability to grow.

I would say chances for an isolated storm for some (probably to the N of London) are a lot better today than the previous couple. It is only 2pm however, convective potential should be at it's max in the next hour or two.

N Spain and E Portugal at the moment though, phwoooar!!!

Edited April 20, 2011 by Harry

[vortex_liam]

On the plus side, the sky is full of convection to my south, but very limited in terms of ability to grow.

I would say chances for an isolated storm for some (probably to the N of London) are a lot better today than the previous couple. It is only 2pm however, convective potential should be at it's max in the next hour or two.

Up in west north west london to my south there is alot of it towering. defently getting bigger every minute

On the plus side, the sky is full of convection to my south, but very limited in terms of ability to grow.

I would say chances for an isolated storm for some (probably to the N of London) are a lot better today than the previous couple. It is only 2pm however, convective potential should be at it's max in the next hour or two.

N Spain and E Portugal at the moment though, phwoooar!!!

my house in portugal is getting hammered ;D

Edited April 20, 2011 by vortex_liam

[Nick F]

Trouble with today is quite a large dew point spread, dew points are barely into double figures in the warmest areas while temperature reach the mid-20s, so this dry air presents a problem for any deep convection to get going, though slightly colder uppers and wind convergence across SE England could build cloud deep enough for an isolated shower, though not high enough for a t-storm.

Tomorrow and Friday, moisture looks greatest towards western parts of England and across Wales and with slightly colder uppers, so we *may* see a few isolated thundery showers break in the afternoon across these areas, helped by topographic forcing.

Saturday, GFS projects higher moisture across England and Wales, so with wind convergence the main driver, we could see some slow moving thunderstorms break out in places though many places staying dry. But the models have been overdoing boundary layer moisture, so it remains to be see how isolated any storms will be over the weekend.

This satellite image taken recently at 13:58 BST (courtesy of Satellite Dundee), shows cloud bubbling up across S London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent and also a sea breeze front notable across E Anglia:

[Harry]

Whether its a rogue or not (I suspect so), NW lightning detector has picked up a sferic from somewhere in the last few minutes. Unsure where it has come from though

Edited April 20, 2011 by Harry

[Arnie Pie]

Trouble with today is quite a large dew point spread, dew points are barely into double figures in the warmest areas while temperature reach the mid-20s, so this dry air presents a problem for any deep convection to get going, though slightly colder uppers and wind convergence across SE England could build cloud deep enough for an isolated shower, though not high enough for a t-storm.

Tomorrow and Friday, moisture looks greatest towards western parts of England and across Wales and with slightly colder uppers, so we *may* see a few isolated thundery showers break in the afternoon across these areas, helped by topographic forcing.

Saturday, GFS projects higher moisture across England and Wales, so with wind convergence the main driver, we could see some slow moving thunderstorms break out in places though many places staying dry. But the models have been overdoing boundary layer moisture, so it remains to be see how isolated any storms will be over the weekend.

This satellite image taken recently at 13:58 BST (courtesy of Satellite Dundee), shows cloud bubbling up across S London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent and also a sea breeze front notable across E Anglia:

What a totally brilliant sat image

Is this quality available for Netweather Extra members?

Edit; in my hast to see some clouds building, half way down you extremely interesting article, i skipped to the big glittery picture and replied from their ............overlooked the bit about Dundee

Edited April 20, 2011 by windypants