Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Gordon]

Unlike the Majority I'm going to hate today

just so I can prepare what type and severity of weather I can expect and what time is it expected to kick off and is it guaranteed for my specif area

I live in Bedworth the postcode is CV12 9AB

I thank anyone who can help

Edited April 23, 2011 by Gordon

[Stormyking]

Well Im never up this early on a saturday but for storms im always up, and couldnt sleep anyway as im going on my first storm chase of the year today and looks like could be well worth it I hope, my fingers are crossed

Wish me luck people and good to everyone today as well

[Alex95]

Classic thundery sky now, Ac Cas everywhere and a bit of blue sky. 13C was the overnight minimum thanks to the cloud and rain.

[Stuart]

well today is the big day for stroms down the east but look like I going miss out

But Saying That weather Under Ground showing Thunderstorms for later Today here

Edited April 23, 2011 by Stuart

[Gordon]

well today is the big day for stroms down the east but look like I going miss out

want to swap with me ?

[Stuart]

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 23 Apr 2011 06:00 to Sun 24 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 23 Apr 2011 05:23

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for Algeria and Tunesia mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Slight low pressure at surface level stretches from a low pressure center over the Iberian peninsula over France, Benelux and southern UK. The airmass is slightly unstable with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE and weakly capped, except over The Netherlands. The maximum is predicted by GFS near the Belgian-French border of about 1000 J/kg. Central Europe also shows some unstable spots, the most significant being the Poland-Lithuania corner, associated with a distinct PV feature.

Shear conditions are benign and most likely result in single cell storm mode with a few multicells, but the combination of reasonable CAPE, steep mid level lapse rates and relatively cold LCL level could yield an isolated marginally large hail event around Belgium, if a storm manages to develop.

Deeper in Algeria unstable conditions and a strong convergence zone are present, with additionally a strong jetstream aloft, with vertical shear vectors >20 m/s favorable for supercells with a chance of large hail.

http://estofex.org/

[dogs32]

time to un pack my camera as its ready for the USA SUPERCELL HUNTING..

Good luck every one and enjoy get some nice pics or video..

now who are the lucky ones to be today??

Jane???

Edited April 23, 2011 by dogs32

[Jane Louise]

Good luck for today all. Well done to those who got a storm yesterday. The conditions seemed right here, but typicaly nothing happened again Lol

Today is looking very intresting. Can't wait to see if something happens. I believe there is a weather warning out for some.

I'm going to need my netbook and laptop well chrged up today at the caravan to follow radar lol

[Stuart]

I sure it not me pat bbc saying just rain here

[dogs32]

I sure it not me pat bbc saying just rain here

..Some one will get a TS today and it will better than the teddy bear yesterday....

[Brad]

Expecting nothing down here in central southern England on the coast to be honest. Hope for something later in the year, we are very dependant on imports here rather than home grown stuff.

[knocker]

A quick selection of METO Chief Forecaster's position for some areas. I think the GFS disagrees somewhat.

Southwest England

Mostly dry, sunny and very warm across the region, but cloudier in the far southwest with a shower possible this morning. Risk of an isolated heavy shower this afternoon across eastern and northern counties. Light, mainly northwesterly winds. Maximum Temperature 22 C.

West Midlands

Largely dry and sunny, especially in the morning as isolated heavy and thundery showers are expected to develop in the afternoon. Feeling very warm, with light and variable winds. Maximum Temperature 24 C.

Tonight:

Showers will gradually die out this evening leaving a few clear spells for the rest of the night. Chilly, with light northwesterly winds. Minimum Temperature 6 C.

East Midlands

Warm sunshine for much of the day but showers developing this afternoon, becoming heavy, thundery and slow moving, giving a risk of hail and local downpours, especially from mid-afternoon onwards. Maximum Temperature 24 C.

Tonight:

Heavy downpours continuing this evening and into the night. Becoming generally dry later, though, with broken cloud, a few mist patches possible in the south. Minimum Temperature 6 C.

East of England

Dry, very warm and sunny again for much of the day but a few heavy showers are expected to develop later this afternoon, slow-moving with a risk of hail and thunder, especially in the west. Maximum Temperature 24 C

Tonight:

A fine evening for most but isolated thundery showers continuing in some western counties, but these dying away to leave a dry night, a few mist patches forming. Minimum Temperature 7 C.

London and the South East of England

Dry, very warm and sunny again for most, although isolated heavy showers will develop later this afternoon, slow moving with a risk of hail and thunder. Maximum Temperature 27 C.

Tonight:

A fine evening for most but isolated thundery showers continuing, especially in some western counties, but these dying away to leave a dry night, a few mist patches forming.

Yorkshire and Humber

Today:

A grey, misty start but brightening up, some warm sunshine developing. However, there will also be a few showers, these turning heavy and thundery in places later this afternoon, giving a risk of local downpours. Maximum Temperature 23 C.

Tonight:

Some heavy, thundery downpours are likely in places this evening, slowly clearing away eastwards overnight then generally dry with broken cloud. Minimum Temperature 7 C.

Edited April 23, 2011 by weather ship

[dogs32]

Isolated Thunderstorms at night are a serious photo oppertunity if your a fair distance away.....get to see all the bolts shooting around the cloud...great pics

[camiscool]

Does anyone think we can get some juicy imports today?

[Stuart]

Does anyone think we can get some juicy imports today?

no just Home Growing 1

[dogs32]

no just Home Growing 1

with mushroom compost :lol:

good luck mate

[Evening thunder]

Looks like me and the SW is going to miss out as usual

Looked better earlier in the week in a way when we were still shown to have a NE/E flow and CAPE was shown higher down here..

Not much else I can add except good luck to everyone what ever they want, except of course those that don't want a storm.

Edited April 23, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Stuart]

Looks like me and the SW is going to miss out as usual

Looked better earlier in the week in a way when we were still shown to have a NE/E flow and CAPE was shown higher down here..

Not much else I can add except good luck to everyone.

:lol:

Thanks pat

[Gordon]

Ain't it Typical me who hates the things might just get one

bloody hope not

[camiscool]

Why couldn't we get imports?

[DAVID SNOW]

with mushroom compost :lol:

good luck mate

Your a Fungi :lol:

[CardiffStorm]

Yes, definately looks the the East Midlands and East of England have the best chance of seeing the greatest thunderstorms this afternoon/evening but I think almost everywhere could see the odd sharp shower with a few rumbles.

[dogs32]

Your a Fungi :lol:

im just getting compost now.....

OK can see spores in the sky..fish scales....just need some more growth for the spores to hatch

then later for some large Mushroom clouds(Anvils)

Edited April 23, 2011 by dogs32

[Gordon]

Yes, definately looks the the East Midlands and East of England have the best chance of seeing the greatest thunderstorms this afternoon/evening but I think almost everywhere could see the odd sharp shower with a few rumbles.

well that cheers me up a little as I am a little further west and can probably just about manage a heavy shower with a few rumbles but I'll wait and see before celebrating

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks to be just for Eastern areas, anywhere west of Derby likely to mostly miss out, no advisory even for my area, very similar to yesterday for SW, W and NW midlands with just a few showers