Autumn 2011

[Weather-history]

I disagree about the jetstream wanting to stay south, any other year and I would agree, there are strong inidications that the atlantic has woken from its slumber and that the current meteorlogical conditions are supporting a strong jet directly over us here in the UK. We are witnessing blocking conditions in the atlantic, unfortunately its over the azores which isnt good news for cold lovers.

I think the keyword there is "current". Its July and winter is still 5 months away, what is "current" does not necessarily mean "the future" ie what is happening does not necessarily mean the same 5 months time.

Edited July 20, 2011 by Mr_Data

[bobbydog]

I might be wrong and correct me if I am, but James Madden's (Exacta weather) forecast for this winter looks like an exact copy of his forecast for last winter. He suggested all three months would be in the very cold category in winter of 2010/11..

pretty much, if he says the same thing year in year out, he might eventually be right!

[Yorkshiresnows]

Please could you supply a link for joe laminate floori's european winter page? Thanks

Hi There,

Here's the link: http://www.weatherbell.com/

Though I am afraid its a monthly subscription to get the premium site where the postings and video's are (though its only around £9 per month and well worth itm in my opinion).

Cheers

Y.S

[UV-RAY]

I disagree about the jetstream wanting to stay south, any other year and I would agree, there are strong inidications that the atlantic has woken from its slumber and that the current meteorlogical conditions are supporting a strong jet directly over us here in the UK. We are witnessing blocking conditions in the atlantic, unfortunately its over the azores which isnt good news for cold lovers.

The ENSO graph is showing huge disparities in its runs and it is really difficult to rely on, what we do know is that it was very negative all last summer and into autumn and that will not be the casethis year unless something short of a weather miracle happens. The CFS doesnt have a great record at predicting longer range ENSO conditions, take last year when it said it would go strongly el nino and it didnt. Volcanic activity will only imapct for 1 yr to 18 months it is very short term, due to the atmospheric chemistry involved.

Solar activity is increasing, even given the lag time which was start of last winter, its effect on the atmosphere will now only encourage warmth.

Winter will be mild wet and very windy. Worst of the any snow will be for the north. I will be surprised to see a beast from the east.

Firstly any predictions of solar activity ramping up are way of the mark, yes it's more active, but compared to the last cycle it's in a coma. Also how sunspots are now counted, as to how they was counted in the LIA is vastly different.

Secondly ENSO is predicted to be neutral/ weak la nina. add to that more favorable QBO conditions and the odds on another cold winter are 65% I would say. So my conclusion after looking at all these variables, is for a Mild wet Bartlett winter!

Edited July 20, 2011 by Seven of Nine

[Yorkshiresnows]

I disagree about the jetstream wanting to stay south, any other year and I would agree, there are strong inidications that the atlantic has woken from its slumber and that the current meteorlogical conditions are supporting a strong jet directly over us here in the UK. We are witnessing blocking conditions in the atlantic, unfortunately its over the azores which isnt good news for cold lovers.

The ENSO graph is showing huge disparities in its runs and it is really difficult to rely on, what we do know is that it was very negative all last summer and into autumn and that will not be the casethis year unless something short of a weather miracle happens. The CFS doesnt have a great record at predicting longer range ENSO conditions, take last year when it said it would go strongly el nino and it didnt. Volcanic activity will only imapct for 1 yr to 18 months it is very short term, due to the atmospheric chemistry involved.

Solar activity is increasing, even given the lag time which was start of last winter, its effect on the atmosphere will now only encourage warmth.

Winter will be mild wet and very windy. Worst of the any snow will be for the north. I will be surprised to see a beast from the east.

Have to politely disagree again

The ENSO graphs latest runs are all for La Nina - go to Anthony Watts site and check all the graphs and predictions for yourself (http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso/).

Latest Sea surface temps in the Pacific (region as indicated), show a drop off:

The fact that the Jet stream is directly over us now in summer mean it is South of its 'normal position' .... it should be over or to the North of Scotland in summer months.

You have also completey misunderstood the current solar conditions. Even though activity has increased ...... over next to nothing, we are still under very low solar conditions, and probably one of the contributing factors as to why we have seen and are seeing a suppressed Jet position (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/14/all-three-of-these-lines-of-research-to-point-to-the-familiar-sunspot-cycle-shutting-down-for-a-while/).

Y.S

[snowlover2009]

I disagree about the jetstream wanting to stay south, any other year and I would agree, there are strong inidications that the atlantic has woken from its slumber and that the current meteorlogical conditions are supporting a strong jet directly over us here in the UK. We are witnessing blocking conditions in the atlantic, unfortunately its over the azores which isnt good news for cold lovers.

The ENSO graph is showing huge disparities in its runs and it is really difficult to rely on, what we do know is that it was very negative all last summer and into autumn and that will not be the casethis year unless something short of a weather miracle happens. The CFS doesnt have a great record at predicting longer range ENSO conditions, take last year when it said it would go strongly el nino and it didnt. Volcanic activity will only imapct for 1 yr to 18 months it is very short term, due to the atmospheric chemistry involved.

Solar activity is increasing, even given the lag time which was start of last winter, its effect on the atmosphere will now only encourage warmth.

Winter will be mild wet and very windy. Worst of the any snow will be for the north. I will be surprised to see a beast from the east.

I don't see how because your 'supposed' reputation of predicting winters correctly, gives you the right to tell everyone how winter will be. By all means say what you think, but 'it will be mild' is not exactly good in terms! Solar activity may be increasing, but it is very low, when it is meant to be reaching maximum, there is so little sun spots, that it could be considered as low solar activity. Where is this blocking in the azores you mention, oh I see, there is none. Blocking in the atlantic, also fuels the chance of cold conditions to the uk as well, not just mild!

Where is your actual hard evidence on any of the points above? I particularly want the evidence of 'it will be mild and wet and windy', a must please.

This post is all coming from someone who is talking about El nino conditions this winter and to the added fact that all her 'points' are not backed up properly or are not as dramatic as they sound like the solar activity and blocking in the azores.

Please don't reply back kicking and screaming because I have debated quite strongly, the consensus is that anyone who replied in here, has disagreed with you.

Edited July 20, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Backtrack]

Don't think because your 'supposed' reputation of predicting winters correctly, gives you the right to tell everyone how winter will be. By all means say what you think, but 'it will be mild' get a grip! Solar activity may be increasing, but it is very low, when it is meant to be reaching maximum, there is so little sun spots, that it could be considered as low solar activity. Where is this blocking in the azores you mention, oh I see, there is none. Blocking in the atlantic, also fuels the chance of cold conditions to the uk as well, not just mild!

Sorry, no offence, but I would treat all your posts and thoughts and predictions as a MAJOR caution and I don't mean this lightly! The post is all coming from someone who is talking about El nino conditions this winter and to the added fact that all her 'points' are not backed up properly or are not as dramatic as they sound like the solar activity and blocking in the azores.

Do some more research and you may upgrade to the next level, which is taking your posts with less caution, but still with a lot of caution.

I think this post is a little harsh. All she has done is given her opinion on Winter, and whilst no one including me or you can rule out the possibility of a mild winter I think we should be taking the post with a likelihood of it having a 33.3% chance of coming off.

Winter is either mild, average or cold.

Myself I can see another cold winter. We have very low solar activity and a reoccurring of blocking over Greenland. This can only fuel the cold.

I would be surprised though if we did have a very mild winter, I think this one will follow suite of the last 3, I think personally that we have entered a new era of Winters and that we will be seeing this season having at least one very cold month yearly.

[snowlover2009]

I think this post is a little harsh. All she has done is given her opinion on Winter, and whilst no one including me or you can rule out the possibility of a mild winter I think we should be taking the post with a likelihood of it having a 33.3% chance of coming off.

Winter is either mild, average or cold.

Myself I can see another cold winter. We have very low solar activity and a reoccurring of blocking over Greenland. This can only fuel the cold.

I would be surprised though if we did have a very mild winter, I think this one will follow suite of the last 3, I think personally that we have entered a new era of Winters and that we will be seeing this season having at least one very cold month yearly.

One thing, an opinion is 'i think' 'it is likely' 'IMO'. An opinion is not 'it will be mild' I don't how a 33.3 percent prediction of a mild winter has any credibility either.

BTW I don't think my post is too harsh either, I am debating the subject. But when people don't back their posts up and claim things and menion 'an el nino winter', then it gets my gripe.

Edited July 20, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Backtrack]

One thing, an opinion is 'i think' 'it is likely' 'IMO'. An opinion is not 'it will be mild'

BTW I don't think my post is too harsh either, I am debating the subject. But when people don't back their posts up and claim things and menion 'an el nino winter', then it gets my gripe.

Yeah I guess it was a bit bold stating that 'IT WILL' be a mild winter. I hope she is very wrong, just for the simple fact that I love my Winter's cold.

I would also debate it, because as you have just said, there isn't any factual information, it's just guess work, I wonder if she just struck lucky the last two times?

[Snowstorm1]

Personally at this stage the chances based on everything Id give these % at this stage in my opinion

Cold Winter = 50%

Average Winter = 30%

Mild Winter = 20%

[snowlover2009]

Yeah I guess it was a bit bold stating that 'IT WILL' be a mild winter. I hope she is very wrong, just for the simple fact that I love my Winter's cold.

I would also debate it, because as you have just said, there isn't any factual information, it's just guess work, I wonder if she just struck lucky the last two times?

I don't care of her thinking or predicting winter to be mild, but the 'evidence' she supposedly has is not the best in terms and sounds more dramatic than it is, like solar activity ramping up, which is not at all true. It could still be classed as low solar activity, with the so little sun spots. Correct me if I am wrong, but the poster used an el nino as an excuse to her claims, when there is not one predicted or even showing at all for this winter, by no means whatsoever. Also when she said she predicted this winter to be cold, I have reason to believe it was not what she expected, Jan was very average and Feb above average, so if she predicted a cold winter she was wrong? If it was 2009/10 winter, then fair enough. But the last winter, was half and half in reality, so it is very hard to know where the truth lies. Was it above average or colder than average?

If it was colder fair enough, but I half expect the poster to have thought it was going to be cold throughout. Even if she was correct about it, how does claiming and bragging about it give her a good reputation at all and lead us to believe she will be right on it being mild this time round? It could be guess work or just a coincidence. I thought it was going to be a repeat of 2009/10 this year, but it only was cold for half the winter. So I was wrong

Edited July 20, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Backtrack]

I don't care of her thinking or predicting winter to be mild, but the 'evidence' she supposedly has is not the best in terms and sounds more dramatic than it is, like solar activity ramping up, which is not at all true. It could still be classed as low solar activity, with the so little sun spots. Correct me if I am wrong, but the poster used an el nino as an excuse to her claims, when there is not one predicted or even showing at all for this winter, by no means whatsoever. Also when she said she predicted this winter to be cold, I have reason to believe it was not what she expected, Jan was very average and Feb above average, so if she predicted a cold winter she was wrong? If it was 2009/10 winter, then fair enough. But the last winter, was half and half in reality, so it is very hard to know where the truth lies. Was it above average or colder than average?

If it was colder fair enough, but I half expect the poster to have thought it was going to be cold throughout. Even if she was correct about it, how does claiming and bragging about it give her a good reputation at all and lead us to believe she will be right on it being mild this? It could be guess work or just a coincidence. I thought it was going to be a repeat of 2009/10 this year, but it only was cold for half the winter. So I was wrong

Yep a good post, most of it is true.

I also had similar thoughts about last winter, thinking along the lines of 09/10. When if I look back now, I see that last winter was poor overall, with a lack of numerous snow/cold events. There was just one main prolonged event that brought snow and cold to my area, with nothing after early January!

I think this winter will see a similar December (Cold mostly throughout) but with more colder interludes in January and February, followed by a corker of a cold spell late February. But that's just guesswork, and whilst I just admitted that, the poster above wont most likely.

You're also right about the el nino. Not forecast this year. :lol:

[bobbydog]

what i would like to hear, is one of the forecast team giving their opinion of how winter will turn out, based on the current output and predictions, taking into account ENSO, QBO, jetstream positioning, solar activity, AO, NAO and any other factor involved.

HOWEVER! i would only expect anyone to do this on the basis that :

1) everyone realises that at this stage it is pure speculation from someone with an understanding of the input factors

2) NO-ONE can hold it against any brave soul who sticks their neck out to do it if it turns out to be wrong!

come on forecast team- i'm throwing down the gauntlet!!

[damianslaw]

I don't claim to know much about the effects of low solar output activity, but from reading it does appear to be a major significant background factor to increasing the chances of cold lengthy spells occuring in the winter. We have seen very very low activity during the past 3 years and the signs are of only a very slow rise in activity if a susbtantial rise at all, the last three winters have seen lengthy very cold spells, so the odds on this winter delivering at least another lengthy cold spell are quite high. I know it is just one factor but I do think it is a very important one.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Just in case you think Im lying about exactly what I predicted last year, I quote what I said on Met Monkey in September last year.

A while back I said that I would wait to see what the hurricane season would bring to our shores. Right now we have two major tropical systems in the atlantic, and if the GFS is to believed none will make it over as extra tropical features. Instead they will slowly degrade while moving towards Greenland. We did see something like this earlier on this year, with weather systems in the atlantic almost being turned on there heals and going off in the opposite direction. This year it has started even earlier.

The NAO is also negative and continues to be stubbornly so.last year at this time it was positive and brought along with it a spell of wet and windy weather that broke my hubbys wind turbine.

Its been what I would call a benign summer and continues to be so as we move into autumn. I cant see no let up in the current situation. I think we could very well be in for a repeat of last winters slack, very cold airflow, but this time starting much earlier. We just need that air to cool over the continent and we will get what europe gets most years.

There has been another thread about the gulfstream, it hasn't switched off, but it hasnt got the power it should have at this time of the year either. If the southern ocsillation can swtich moods Im sure the gulfstream is more than capable of slowing down as well.

My link My user name is Snow-white

Maybe Im just not as bogged down in weather models as some peeps. The atlantic is about to wake up from its slumber, I am neither a snow ramper or a cold ramper, does it actually scare sp,e peeps to know that some people just know..... its called intution.

[bobbydog]

There has been another thread about the gulfstream, it hasn't switched off, but it hasnt got the power it should have at this time of the year either. If the southern ocsillation can swtich moods Im sure the gulfstream is more than capable of slowing down as well.

well its got even less power than last year, what do you make of that?

[Ladyofthestorm]

The jetstream isnt playing the same game unfortunately, this year the jetstream has been forimly over us, take it I know this one because it has rained most of the spring and summer with very windy conditions. The only time it has let up is when a ridge of high pressure has slipped up from the SW, before weakening and letting in the atlantic again.

[bobbydog]

The jetstream isnt playing the same game unfortunately, this year the jetstream has been forimly over us, take it I know this one because it has rained most of the spring and summer with very windy conditions. The only time it has let up is when a ridge of high pressure has slipped up from the SW, before weakening and letting in the atlantic again.

can you just clarify the 'same game' bit?

[cheeky_monkey]

The jetstream isnt playing the same game unfortunately, this year the jetstream has been forimly over us, take it I know this one because it has rained most of the spring and summer with very windy conditions. The only time it has let up is when a ridge of high pressure has slipped up from the SW, before weakening and letting in the atlantic again.

i dont live in the Uk but i was under the impression it was a very dry spring?..if you not a snow ramper or cold ramper why are you a proud member of SACRA?

Edited July 20, 2011 by cheeky_monkey

[Ladyofthestorm]

CH the uk is a very diverse place, the SE suffered a dry spring, the rest of the UK didnt. I am a member of SACRA but I wont hype up something that is months off either.

Same game bobbydog... as Im sure you are aware the gulfstream and Jetstream are not the same thing. The gulfstream may have trundled south but the Jetstream is firmlt set over the UK and had been for months. Can I see a change? No.

[cheeky_monkey]

CH the uk is a very diverse place, the SE suffered a dry spring, the rest of the UK didnt. I am a member of SACRA but I wont hype up something that is months off either.

i do know what the UK is like i lived there for all but 2.5 yrs of my life..im pretty sure most of the UK had a dry spring and not just the SE

[Harve]

I think some of us are getting a little ahead of ourselves. Whilst someone's predictions are going to come true, maybe a little humility is needed - any winter prediction / forecast is going to be fairly inaccurate, and should a forecast made at this stage come off it's likely to be due to chance.

[Backtrack]

Ladyofthestorm, with all due respect, literally all of the United Kingdom had a warm, dry, sunny spring!

[johnholmes]

this is the link with UK Met to actual stats for various parts of the UK with the national average also shown

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/spring/averages.html#

from it one can also get temperature sunshine figures.

I assume the values will be accepted as correct by those in this thread?

[ZONE 51]

interesting posts tonight.

i am going to say that i think but not putting a % on it that winter is going to start as soon as it can, i expect an earlier kick off this year, last winter we got very mild and this only because the pattern broke and allowed this to happen, what was in december was extreme and potent, we could have got locked into that pattern, there is every risk that next time it bites we get locked n blocked for much longer...

il be back with facts n stuff but not until late or maybe tomo, just thought il add that!

Edited July 20, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm