Summer Forecast Continued.

[ohno]

You can eat the nettles.

Looking at your avatar picture, you have eaten the nettles

[Terminal Moraine]

No I used to live in Berkshire. So the worst months of 85/86 would have been like an average peak district summer.

The crap August 2010 from a station near me (and also at 300m):

http://www.tutiempo....-2010/33300.htm

Just to offer a crumb of comfort as to how 'bad' the weather can be here in summer;

The mean max' here in August 1986 was 14.8c with a monthly max' of 18.3c, rainfall was 124.1mm and sunshine 134.4 hrs.

August 1985 was similar with a mean max' of 15.9c,highest max' of 19.6c, 122.3mm rainfall ( 27 rain days ) and 140.9 hrs sunshine.

I have to admit that the Augusts of 2006, 2008 and 2010 were even less sunny but they were also much warmer and less windy so things could be much worse.

Edited July 13, 2011 by Terminal Moraine

[Village]

Its been another terrible summer so far where I live in southeast Essex. I have never known my lawns to look so beautifully rich and green. I have had regular periods of cloud and rainfall which has been very heavy at times. Even last night we had a period of very torrential rain causing problems driving between Chelmsford on the A130 and my town to the south. The number of times my gutters have been overflowing in the last two months is astounding.

Sunshine levels are low and so too have been the temperatures. The last four summers have also been atrocious, although not as wet as this year. The northeast of Essex has seen it drier I understand, but if only I could have three days in a row without the cloud and rain !! thats what I pray for. I havent been sailing now for two years because of the appalling summers.

A warming climate? mediteranean Summers? dont make me laugh.....that was two decades ago....its nothing like as warm or dry as it was fifteen to twenty years ago.

[EaasmanG]

depends upon which critaria you employ to decide whichy is 'best' and 'worse'..

i cut grass for a living, grass growth depends upon warmth and moisture, this year for it its been easy, possibly the easiest year ive ever had (dry, short grass). from that perspective this summer so far is far better then last!

I would have thought that very long grass would be better for you as someone who cuts it for a living? Or maybe you don't get paid by time.

I base my personal criteria from the perspective of:

Wanting to enjoy the outdoors in SUMMER without needing to huddle up inside multiple layers with coat and hat

Wanting to sit outside in sunshine and into the evening with a drink

Being able to enjoy a warm, sunny day in SUMMER

Wanting to avoid seasonal affective disorder even in the SUMMER

The fact that I get cold easily anyway because I'm tall and thin with low blood pressure so warm weather is more comfortable.

Is it too much to ask to get some decent weather, in SUMMER? If you can't enjoy that in summer, when can you?

I find it most odd that most people here are challenging the fact that I actually like to have summer weather, in summer.

Yet I don't see much challenging of the cold fans begging after cold weather, in winter, which happens incessantly from the word "go" as soon as September starts.

Anyway. I know we still shouldn't assume what will happen in August. However if the latest model and teleconnection outputs are anything to go by, two thirds of this "summer" are down the pan and relegated to the list of crappest summers in my memory, and far worse than last year.

Just to offer a crumb of comfort as to how 'bad' the weather can be here in summer;

The mean max' here in August 1986 was 14.8c with a monthly max' of 18.3c, rainfall was 124.1mm and sunshine 134.4 hrs.

August 1985 was similar with a mean max' of 15.9c,highest max' of 19.6c, 122.3mm rainfall ( 27 rain days ) and 140.9 hrs sunshine.

I have to admit that the Augusts of 2006, 2008 and 2010 were even less sunny but they were also much warmer and less windy so things could be much worse.

It's precisely because of the possibility of this hellish scenario that I will be back in the East Midlands within a year.

Edited July 13, 2011 by EaasmanG

[bobbydog]

looks like the russians are having another heatwave -

russian heatwave

is this usual or are we experiencing the same situation as last year, with unusual jet-stream positioning?

if so i wonder how it bodes for winter.... (yeah i know its a long way off and could all change)

[Milhouse]

looks like the russians are having another heatwave -

russian heatwave

is this usual or are we experiencing the same situation as last year, with unusual jet-stream positioning?

if so i wonder how it bodes for winter.... (yeah i know its a long way off and could all change)

To be honest i could see it brewing a long time ago. If its as long lasting as last year then its curtains for summer sadly. We will just be in the firing line for anything coming across the Atlantic.

[Village]

Another pretty average summer .....basically our climate is totally unchanged....what we get now is exactly what one should expect here. Our records of Summers past here in the UK will back this up too. It clearly indicates that there is no climate change.

What you see out of the window is what you should expect here during Summer.

[mushymanrob]

I would have thought that very long grass would be better for you as someone who cuts it for a living? Or maybe you don't get paid by time.

nope..its regular fortnightly rounds with a set price per visit, so this years perfect, mainly dry so easy to cut short grass, but enough rain just to keep me in business.... another '76 would be dire for me if the lawns all brown off!

[Weather-history]

The way some of the charts are looking, "Shades of 1954" would be closer to the mark.

[Paul]

The way some of the charts are looking, "Shades of 1954" would be closer to the mark.

Do you think anyone would notice if we slipped in a quick title edit now?

[mushymanrob]

The way some of the charts are looking, "Shades of 1954" would be closer to the mark.

...and what happened in 54? (assuming it wasnt good)

[Weather-history]

...and what happened in 54? (assuming it wasnt good)

You can the see index rating of that summer in my signature. It was a bad one and the charts for this weekend were pretty typical for that summer.

[mushymanrob]

You can the see index rating of that summer in my signature. It was a bad one and the charts for this weekend were pretty typical for that summer.

if your index is set in manchester, might it be different for the southeast?

[TonyH]

Not exactly shades of 76 here in west Wales, but a relatively fine and dry first half at any rate. By far the best July since at least 2006.

[EaasmanG]

At least we are getting normal sunshine this July, unlike last year where there was a total of 81 hours sun ALL MONTH :shok:

Today was a bonus good day, managing to be sunny most the day and reaching 20 degrees. What is summer without the sunshine?

Edited July 14, 2011 by EaasmanG

[Thundery wintry showers]

if your index is set in manchester, might it be different for the southeast?

Sometimes it can be different in the SE, but the Met Office's regional values suggest that 1954 was an exceptionally dull cold wet summer nationwide:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/

A selection of charts:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1954/Rrea00119540608.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1954/Rrea00119540626.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1954/Rrea00119540712.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1954/Rrea00119540718.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1954/Rrea00119540728.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1954/Rrea00119540808.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1954/Rrea00119540814.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1954/Rrea00119540823.gif

[snowlover2009]

At least we are getting normal sunshine this July, unlike last year where there was a total of 81 hours sun ALL MONTH :shok:

Today was a bonus good day, managing to be sunny most the day and reaching 20 degrees. What is summer without the sunshine?

You will change your tune this weekend and beyond, if anything the upcoming spell of weather looks a hell of a lot cooler than recent July's, most of them were still warmer than average, even when it was unsettled.

[AderynCoch]

You will change your tune this weekend and beyond, if anything the upcoming spell of weather looks a hell of a lot cooler than recent July's, most of them were still warmer than average, even when it was unsettled.

That depends on how much sunshine we receive. Even if it's dull and wet, it will take something to beat the horrific second half of July 2010 here (the first half was merely disappointing, compounded by the disgusting, persistent NW-SE split). The cool temperatures won't be nearly half as bad if we continue to get some sunshine.

[virtualsphere]

Not exactly shades of 76 here in west Wales, but a relatively fine and dry first half at any rate. By far the best July since at least 2006.

Yes, I'd agree with that. We might not have had any lasting anticyclones this summer, but at least the low pressure systems this year have pushed through far enough east to allow sunshine and showers, and then have been followed by ridges allowing decent sunny periods, like Wednesday and yesterday. It's a nice change from the drizzle, low cloud and persistent rain that we've seen here the last four Julys.

I'd still rate last summer above this year at present, due to the fantastic June last year. The Met Office stats have June 2010 as the 8th sunniest since records began in Wales with 239.9 hours - by contrast last July had 114 hours and is the 3rd least sunniest! Julys 2007 - 2009 had between 150 and 164 hours sunshine in Wales; a stark contrast to 2006 which had 261 hours. I still think summer 2008 was the worst of recent years here, with a reasonable 191 hours of sunshine in June being followed by an uninspiring 155 hours in July and just 92.5 in August - the worst on record. June has definitely been the best summer month here since 2007.

[EaasmanG]

You will change your tune this weekend and beyond, if anything the upcoming spell of weather looks a hell of a lot cooler than recent July's, most of them were still warmer than average, even when it was unsettled.

We already had more than last July's sunshine in half of this July!

Last July was slightly above average here, thanks to higher minimum temperatures.

2007+2008+2009 were below average, in my records. Last time we had one notably above average was 2006.

I would much rather have a July or August 4 degrees warmer than average than APRIL, which, when warm, is usually followed by a poor summer.

Edited July 15, 2011 by EaasmanG

[Methuselah]

I think it's safe to say that NW's summer forecast has gone 'tits up'. Having said that, and leaving aside the expected attempts at 'retrofitting' from the usual suspects, did anyone, anyone at all, call this summer correctly?

Did anyone accurately predict the early and rapid demise of the La Nina? The same early demise that rendered many a local LRFing 'hero''s winter forecast similarly defunct? So, it was wrong. But at least it wasn't based on make believe...

[AderynCoch]

So, it was wrong. But at least it wasn't based on make believe...

This is it, in a nutshell.

[mushymanrob]

I think it's safe to say that NW's summer forecast has gone 'tits up'. Having said that, and leaving aside the expected attempts at 'retrofitting' from the usual suspects, did anyone, anyone at all, call this summer correctly?

Did anyone accurately predict the early and rapid demise of the La Nina? The same early demise that rendered many a local LRFing 'hero''s winter forecast similarly defunct? So, it was wrong. But at least it wasn't based on make believe...

well said!

[UV-RAY]

We already had more than last July's sunshine in half of this July!

Last July was slightly above average here, thanks to higher minimum temperatures.

2007+2008+2009 were below average, in my records. Last time we had one notably above average was 2006.

I would much rather have a July or August 4 degrees warmer than average than APRIL, which, when warm, is usually followed by a poor summer.

I did the with the decline of Nina conditions, and my hunch was for a continuation of what the last four summers have thrown at us. The trouble with a LRF though, is that there are far too many variables which tend to throw a spanner in the works.

[pottyprof]

Oh well... Paul Hudson just gave the summer forecast a plug on Look North. Just wait til he gets his forecast wrong again at only 24hrs out.. :lol: