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El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Bit of a post mortem needed after last evening/night's let down across SE England, E Mids and E Anglia where severe potential was showing by some NWP models pretty close in timescale.

The ingredients were definately there, with potential instability of the plume and favourable vertical shear for severe weather, unfortunately the greatest area of forcing for ascent remained over France as a pre-frontal low/trough moved NE from Biscay to Nern France overnight. ECM and UKMO both showed this trough crossing SE England with storms and perhaps an MCS moving/developing NE overnight here as a result. GFS on the other hand preferred to keep the main action on the near continent, so it was a difficult call, hats of to GFS and I certainly will pay more credence to the model in the future when a similar plume breakdown occurs over NW Europe. However, we did see elevated storms develop from SW England up to NE England yesterday afternoon into the overnight period ahead/along the cold front and isolated storms have developed and tracked NE across SE England and E Anglia this morning:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/LWUK.asp - UKMO Atd sferics

But please don't be quick to blame any forecasters for getting this wrong, forecasting storms in plume breakdowns are notoriously difficult even with today's super computers at our disposal. Like I said yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in the USA run by the National Weather Service there has busts too with their storm forecasts, I have been out there and they issue a Moderate risk for an area, but the skies remain blue until dusk.

Still potential for some storms across SE England and E Anglia today - before the cold front clears.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

I can see one tower that's shot up within the last 20 minutes over the channel, visible from Folkestone

Same one i see mate

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Thundery Shower Newbie

Thundery Shower

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

I can understand the people's frustration, as we rarely get a good spell of storms, but unfortunately the ingredients weren't spot on yesterday. the main reason being is the remenants of the yesterday morning's MCS over the SW caused an overflow of high cloud which caped any convection or (CIN) convective inhibitation. I have a feeling that the forecasters didn't predict the MCS to hit so early or that was the main event to move east creating potent storms. It was a very close but no ciggar situation, however some forecasters got it 100% correct with the main storms being in the NE and West Midlands area. What i have noticed is that people compare spanish plumes to the 1990's, however 9 times out of 10 most MCS move in a more N/E direction in today's weather, which is something todo with the position of the cold front but that's out of my knowledge of weather.

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DanN Enthusiast

DanN

Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
Posted

?? 6pm tonight or yesterday?

Anyway, couple of small areas of development to our south, one coming out of Fecamp and heading towards East Sussex and the other around Jersey heading towards East of Portsmouth in a NE direction. Nothing major but still development

Sorry, 6pm tonight. Just west of London.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

I can understand the people's frustration, as we rarely get a good spell of storms, but unfortunately the ingredients weren't spot on yesterday. the main reason being is the remenants of the yesterday morning's MCS over the SW caused an overflow of high cloud which caped any convection or (CIN) convective inhibitation.

But we had blue skies all day and into the evening!, we still didn't have a storm

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Alex95 Contributor

Alex95

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted

No more thunder from the cold front overnight, but I'm happy with the storm I got in the middle of yesterday afternoon.

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jimbo36 Apprentice

jimbo36

Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
Posted

Massive anvil to my south, looks to be over the channel...

Very poor forecasting yesterday :(

probably the cell that's moved out of fecamp, current track arriving around Hastings moving NNE, running east of Maidstone and then around Thames Estuary if it holds together

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

?? 6pm tonight or yesterday?

Anyway, couple of small areas of development to our south, one coming out of Fecamp and heading towards East Sussex and the other around Jersey heading towards East of Portsmouth in a NE direction. Nothing major but still development

Yes, it will be worth keeping an eye on the Jersey development. It could hold a surprise in store for the SE later.

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SnowBear Maestro

SnowBear

Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
Posted (edited)

No, it wasn't poor forecasting, as usual with thundery activity, once you see all the potentials there from charts and models, (and lets be honest, there was lots of potential there yesterday) then it falls to plain old sky and radar watching to see where if any and where the potential is tapped into. There are so many criteria for storms to develop, so many influences, and often at very short time scales, it will always be win some/lose some. We have had storms when not forecast, and none when they are.

Analysis? Blame game? Etc? What the heck for? There are far better things to do than sit and moan about it.

How many people did not learn something from yesterday about storm set ups and what it involves? It was still good practice for when it does kick off ;-)

Edited by SnowBear
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DanN Enthusiast

DanN

Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
Posted (edited)

No, it wasn't poor forecasting, as usual with thundery activity, once you see all the potentials there from charts and models, (and lets be honest, there was lots of potential there yesterday) then it falls to plain old sky and radar watching to see where if any and where the potential is tapped into. There are so many criteria for storms to develop, so many influences, and often at very short time scales, it will always be win some/lose some. We have had storms when not forecast, and none when they are.

Analysis? Blame game? Etc? What the heck for? There are far better things to do than sit and moan about it.

How many people did not learn something from yesterday about storm set ups and what it involves? It was still good practice for when it does kick off ;-)

Spot on! Although the analysis of where it wrong is useful as well.

Edited by danuk
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

No, it wasn't poor forecasting, as usual with thundery activity, once you see all the potentials there from charts and models, (and lets be honest, there was lots of potential there yesterday) then it falls to plain old sky and radar watching to see where if any and where the potential is tapped into.

Thank you SB, the voice of reason and a very positive comment. Anybody would think looking at some posts in here, that they had paid to sit in the best seats in the stadium and the teams hadn't turned up.

I'm looking forward to today and all the other storm days to come! :D

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Two new cells going up to my south, west of the current storm :clap: :clap: :clap:

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Just thought I'd belatedly report several flashes of lightning to the E and SE at about 1:50am last night, accompanied by some thunder. It did rain very heavily shortly after 2am. :)

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Coast, you should know me by now

Bad forecast - i'll say so

Good forecast - I'll say so

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

What does it take to get a decent storms in this country any-more! The long wait for a good storm for Weston continues, and when I mean a good storm, not one with just a few rumbles and a couple of flashes. It was June 2006 when the last time I had what I call a proper storm, one that last more than 30 mins, has lots of lightning with thunder, one where you can take your time filming it & still watch it as well.

Hey-hoy, maybe there is still time this year. I feel sorry for you guys in the east, it seemed like the perfect chance for you to see some spectacular stuff, I was looking forward to seeing all the photos and videos today.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

A far weaker cap here today. Look out the window Coast and see the mid level instability and cumulus forming. Far better than yesterday.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

A far weaker cap here today. Look out the window Coast and see the mid level instability and cumulus forming. Far better than yesterday.

Thunderstorm growing to your south west :drinks:

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

A far weaker cap here today. Look out the window Coast and see the mid level instability and cumulus forming. Far better than yesterday.

Morning Chiono! Yep, the sky is much more appealing today and the temps and DP's are still up. Had a quick look at the Guernsey lightning detector and I think something is following the ferries into Dover!!! :yahoo:

post-6667-0-92214600-1309248770.jpg

I didn't like this morning's Herstmonceux forecast sounding at first, but there is a parcel of unstable air there that may develop as we go through the day:

03882_2806.gif

post-6667-0-92214600-1309248770_thumb.jp

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Woohoo Sun is out and it's roasting!

Acas developing to the east too, come on storms

I err mean west

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

PROB30 TEMPO 2806/2810 7000 -TSRA BKN012

For Heathrow, Gatwick & London City Airports.

This is mostly from the trough, which is already well over the UK - the cold front which should be west of London at 1200z (1300pm UK) 7KM in -SHRA with some low cloud, and some High level embedded Cb

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Flash Elvis Explorer

Flash Elvis

Posted
  • Location: South East Essex
  • Location: South East Essex
Posted

32.2oC already keep this heat coming it's gotta trigger something off today after yesterday's mishap lol

I do have a question though, people say on here they see convection. Can anybody explain to me what I should be looking out for exactly?

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Morning Chiono! Yep, the sky is much more appealing today and the temps and DP's are still up. Had a quick look at the Guernsey lightning detector and I think something is following the ferries into Dover!!! :yahoo:

I'm feeling positive. One can see the weak cold front which is around Exeter presently. The storm around Jersey is ahead of this in moist air. The upper wind profiles will direct anything forming here between Portsmouth and Brighton. Let's see what happens in the next couple of hours.

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Alex95 Contributor

Alex95

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted

32.2oC already keep this heat coming it's gotta trigger something off today after yesterday's mishap lol

I do have a question though, people say on here they see convection. Can anybody explain to me what I should be looking out for exactly?

Fluffy clouds bubbling up, turning into towers.

http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/SCOOL/images/Cloud_cartoons/Convec_Clouds.gif

Your 32°C must be an error, is your thermometer in the sun?

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DanN Enthusiast

DanN

Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
Posted

32.2oC already keep this heat coming it's gotta trigger something off today after yesterday's mishap lol

I do have a question though, people say on here they see convection. Can anybody explain to me what I should be looking out for exactly?

A pic will explain it better than I can put in words rolleyes.gif

post-9921-0-32089900-1309249170_thumb.gi

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