El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5

[Lauren]

I am officially heartbroken, no storm.

However all sources including met and bbc are forecasting thunderstorms for the afternoon here so might finally get a pay off. Stay tuned folks

[Coast]

_{Jersey just had a Recent Thunderstorm - it's heading to the South of the UK!}

Just watching that: http://www.gyweather.com/nexstorm/StormVue1.html

Seems to be two areas of interest heading in this direction - double-bubble after yesterday?! :unsure:

[Backtrack]

Cold front was much slower moving than I expected, and as a result, it's going to hot up again today in parts of the SE. Probably to about 27/28.

[95 Degrees]

Not sure what to make of the weather this morning, on the plus side it is still very pleasant here with temperatures approaching 25C and the prediction of Thunder here is that it should happen early afternoonish, but the cells look quite small in diameter and whats to stop these not making it over the channel.

[Robbie Garrett]

_{The cold front isn't moving very far, there is a small cell just out by jersey lol}

Are these storms reliant on upper winds?? As the surface wind/upper winds would push it North east Towards London. 000-040 magnetic heading - at the direction the wind's flowing.

[Adi F]

The biggest surprise for me was the CF. It marched into Cornwall in a Easterly direction until it hit Exeter at around 7 or 8 pm then just stalled. It has not moved much further on now and the meto are suggesting that it will have only just past the IofW at noon as a weakening cold front.

Yesterday was a bust but it was not a disappointment, I found it all quite interesting and some interesting data to learn from.

[Backtrack]

Not sure what to make of the weather this morning, on the plus side it is still very pleasant here with temperatures approaching 25C and the prediction of Thunder here is that it should happen early afternoonish, but the cells look quite small in diameter and whats to stop these not making it over the channel.

To be fair, I think with the solar input, and the fact that your area is still holding on to the higher temperatures (for now) will be the trigger for some home-grown storms IMO.

CAPE is only around 500, with a LI of -3, but don't be shocked if you get some of the home grown storms!

[Iceni]

So there is no use blaming forecasters who were using the tools at there disposal

So lots of learning and the one plus point was almost seamless Streaming and great 3G Internet coverage.

Heres to the next risk and yes we will be out chasing again!

Paul S

Thank you for that summary Paul.

Another example of relying on models, instead of observation — I liked the part of your post where you say, "when we set off, we knew the cirrus cloud would prevent the storms happening, but the BBC had committed us"… (is that the 'cap' people were talking about?). I think the MetO could have downgraded their warnings by 12:30 am as it was fairly obvious, even to an amateur like me, that the Biscay/Brittany system wasn't going north, it was sticking to the wind vectors NE.

However Netweather technology got a good work out, which must be pleasing.

[Harry]

Still sticky here, I have already seen some convection to the West of Eastbourne on my way into work this morning. If Harry is about he may want to get down to Dymchurch as Kent looks a good place to be in the next few hours (usual caveats apply!!!)

Hi Coast

Am in Dymchurch and was planning to be until say 5ish

[Weather Wizard]

Will it be warner than expected in the east due to the CF stalling???

[Neilsouth]

awww How cute a baby anvil

[Coast]

Hi Coast

Am in Dymchurch and was planning to be until say 5ish

I've got to stick around Sussex again today, but that may not be a bad thing!

[Backtrack]

Will it be warner than expected in the east due to the CF stalling???

Yes, almost certainly. It's 25C in parts of the SE now. Even 19C here at 10:17am. This was not forecast, not even for here.

[jimbo36]

cell that was moving towards hastings has decayed, so given up on that one, one that was heading from Jersey to Portsmouth still together but may go same way. Still hoping....

[chionomaniac]

Any storms leaving France will I suspect lose power over the Channel. However when these reach the South Coast reinvigoration could occur with southerly surface winds hitting the South Downs creating enouugh orographic lift to set things off.

[WillinGlossop]

26c here already, pretty humid n sticky again and more encouraging, blue skies!

[Nick F]

Have issued a storm forecast for the SE today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Please don't pray for me to be struck down by lightning again if it doesn't come off!

[Hodgheg]

Well last night i went to go to sleep and saw a massive flash! Was watching a storm to my east for about half an hour, only lightning every few minuites though but at least it was something. It lit the whole sky up

[jimbo36]

Well last night i went to go to sleep and saw a massive flash! Was watching a storm to my east for about half an hour, only lightning every few minuites though but at least it was something. It lit the whole sky up

Well that's lightning for ya

[Backtrack]

Have issued a storm forecast for the SE today: http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Please don't pray for me to be struck down by lightning again if it doesn't come off!

Hi Nick.

How come High Risk - A high risk of severe convective weather exists. Rarely, if ever used on the UK. Hail >5cm, or wind gusts in excess of 80mph, or >20% risk of a tornado within 50 miles of a point, or >70% risk of localised flooding.

wasn't used yesterday when the CAPE was over 2500?

[snowfall09]

Will the fog over parts of western France affect convection?

[Robbie Garrett]

The Jersey Cell, looks to be de-tensifying as it's crossing the channel! - What sort of up to date radar stuff do you guys use?

It seems to be more widespread as it scraped Chebough.

[Joneseye]

The biggest surprise for me was the CF. It marched into Cornwall in a Easterly direction until it hit Exeter at around 7 or 8 pm then just stalled. It has not moved much further on now and the meto are suggesting that it will have only just past the IofW at noon as a weakening cold front.

Yesterday was a bust but it was not a disappointment, I found it all quite interesting and some interesting data to learn from.

I like the positive attitude. First and foremost we are all weather fans on here, however the more members that can use this as a learning curve and appreciate that CAPE and LI are not the be all and end all the better.

My motto is learn from what has happened so that you can make your own opinion based on the information available. Then look to the more reliable forecasters for the detail. If there aren't any bullish posts or confusion from the more knowledgable amongst the community then err on the side of caution.

[95 Degrees]

26.0C now with clear skies, at least the surface heating is in place and should be some good cloud formations from that cell heading just east of the IOW.

[Harry]

Hi Coast

Managed to integrate my reply to you into your previous post and can't edit on my phone.

Anyway still in Dymchurch and will prob stay until late afternoon. was naff all here early hours but heat and humidity certainly still here. Sky full of AcCas atm

What's your views on potential developments?