El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5

[Calamity James]

Dilemma!! Stay in Dymchurch or head back to NWkent? Seems to me chances are better there today. Thoughts? Am in turmoil lol

lol, at least you have a choice, I'm stuck in TW until 5.30!

Edited June 28, 2011 by Lightning James

[saint]

Rain is starting to get a bit heavy now and we just had first rumble of thunder.

[coffee lover]

Thundering here on the isle of wight...

[Neilsouth]

What i've been looking at today is the development of the clouds overall, however most of this morning apart from distant cbs the clouds are capped. They were not going upwards but staying as Acas!, however just now you can really start to see the rate at which the cumulus clouds are pushing up. Will need to keep an eye on it really but so far so good

Then again yesterday looked better and came to nothing

[newben]

Hoping for a storm this afternoon here in Reigate, Surrey after yesterdays none event. Got to say the GFS favours East/West Sussex and anywhere East on a line from Kent to East Anglia as the main areas likely for some activity.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations/6h.htm

GFS yesterday was spot on with the storm focus last night in Far North West of France near Lille and Belgium and predicting little to hit the South East of the UK.

[weatherobsuk]

Yes seems the action is further W than some thought. Definitively anywhere between a line from London to the Wash is in store for some action.

Funny old game this storm forecasting is. Today its been overcast and cool with temps of 15C and yet storms are kicking off. Yesterday it was 30C at 12pm!

The sat24 loop does show a thinning of the cloud base just before the cells initiated, likely temps briefly shot up in this clear slot giving just enough lift to pass yesterdays cap. Overnight nocturnal cooling seemed to erode the layer somewhat but with little lift given the cooler night temps central parts only saw a scattering of moderate showers as a result.

Any clear slots in that base layer from the front we'll instantly know from this now means 'game on' upwind of that erosion.

[matty8]

Got to say looking alot better today than it Did for yesterday/last night - better chance for severe storms in the South East/East Anglia. I think yesterdays activity (lack of) was due to the front hanging out further West than expected.

Will be keeping a close eye on storm reports - good development in East Anglia as I speak

[Coast]

Great to see things kicking off in Essex and EA, just have a look at what is happening on the detectors around the Channel Islands and Saint Malo as well!!

Webcams:

http://www.123-cams.com/travel-57-Jersey-Bay-of-St-Ouen-View-2.html

http://212.9.30.37:8080/CgiStart?page=Single&Language=0

http://www.webcamsmania.com/webcam/saintmalowebcam

[simonperkins]

Hoping for a storm this afternoon here in Reigate, Surrey after yesterdays none event. Got to say the GFS favours East/West Sussex and anywhere East on a line from Kent to East Anglia as the main areas likely for some activity.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations/6h.htm

GFS yesterday was spot on with the storm focus last night in Far North West of France near Lille and Belgium and predicting little to hit the South East of the UK.

I'll second that!

[sbiggs]

Does anyone know how long this possible thundery day looks set to continue until?

[saint]

We've got a half mix of hail and rain here now!

[Neilsouth]

Thunderstorms in essex and sussex

[snowfall09]

wow 29C here already Folkestone, come on storms

Edited June 28, 2011 by snowfall09

[Southender]

London certainly seems to be acting as a spawn zone.

Looks like Herts, Beds, Cambs & into Suffolk/Norfolk could have a productive afternoon.

Thunderstorms in essex and sussex

Not here there aint!

[matty8]

Does anyone know how long this possible thundery day looks set to continue until?

Well into this afternoon/evening if you live in South East and East Anglia. Best storms mid-afternoon

[sbiggs]

Had about 10 distant rumbles as the rain approached. Now raining but the rumbles seem to have stopped now its here

Just as I type that, CRACK! Must've been only 1-2 miles away

The area over north France does look interesting!

[Ben_Cambs]

Keeping my eye on a cell to the South of my location, though the centre will skirt to my East unless it continues to expand.

[Neilsouth]

Not here there aint!

You're in southend, essex

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

duh sorry forgot the areas

CAMBRIDGE, HERTFORD, WATFORD

Near there

[coffee lover]

Thunder coming every minute now, very deep rumbles.. with very large spots of rain...

[loopydreamer]

hmmm! im to amateur at this! im getting confused! im just not sure we will get anything here in medway area!! too far east, too far west? gahhh!

[Robbie Garrett]

Our Jersey Cell, is throwing out 32mm > according to metoffice and there is more and more cells around it???

Light rain showers and thunderstorm in vicinity for Southampton, Now for the South Downs to do it's work, then your'e have the urban affect and bang over London

[Coast]

Thunder coming every minute now, very deep rumbles.. with very large spots of rain...

Just watching that, perhaps this shows that the sea conditions are not unfavourable then?

[matty8]

Its happening folks, Initiation has started. Some lovely looking 'blobs' coming up across the channel - could develop into some beefy cells similar to those over France/Belgium yesterday.

[WillinGlossop]

27c now! scorchio....so humid....

[TEITS]

Latest NAE predictions for this afternoon.

http://expertcharts.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/06/28/basis06/ukuk/prty/11062818_2806.gif

My own instincts are telling me Norfolk could be the place to be especially W Norfolk. Im not convinced at the moment Kent/Essex will see much in the way of storms today.