Major Hurricane Irene

[Polar Bear]

just checked a few webcams near Wilmington includeing Myrtle and to me it doesnt seem like much has happened or progressed since this morning.. Probably as isnt near yet...?

[Jayces]

Beggining to weaken earlier then predicted?

Still going to be bad but think worse case scenario's may not be as bad as it looked a couple of days ago.

May make landfall as a cat 1 and then a TS in NYC rather then the cat 2 suggested a few days ago.

[Polar Bear]

Beggining to weaken earlier then predicted?

Still going to be bad but think worse case scenario's may not be as bad as it looked a couple of days ago.

May make landfall as a cat 1 and then a TS in NYC rather then the cat 2 suggested a few days ago.

Yes it seems like it but havent seem any formal reports and data that it has downgraded. On BBc24 they just spoke to guy in new york within the cat 2 zone of NY. He was waterproofing everything as he was expecting 15cm of rain in his basement and that was it not boarded up yet. Very sunny over there and he was nt too bothered, If he gets a mandatory evacuation he will go but he was well do what we can. I suppose it must be surreal for then as the sun is shining at the moment.

[mezzacyclone]

Irene has held together remarkably well today considering she`s been exposed to 15-20kn of vertical shear, hence no real strengthening due to tilt on the stack etc,

Has a good chance of re-certifying herself now as a cat2 and possible cat3 as she`s very little shear to deal with for the run into NC.

All models now in sync btw, with a LI landfall, very worryingly.

Flight recon 29 AF308 is en route currently 50 miles north of Panama City Fl headed East,,,

[Jayces]

im willing to bet a lot of money nyc does not recieve a major hurricane or is evacuated

Damn, knew I should have made that bet

[Downburst]

No question this is a major weather event and if I dare say an exciting one at that, with fingers crossed that people will be safe. Some caution though, you know the advertising rates fly up on the TV networks in the states for these events. The stations will do anything to get more viewers and being the states this means being as sensationalist as possible. Expect all reason to be lost as people 50 to 100 miles away from the outer zone who will get max winds of 30 mph in a gust rush out to buy generators, "dry" foods and of course batteries and torches and lots of them. Talking to sensible folks in Virginia two hours ago and I asked of course about the storm and the discussion was far from a panic and I did hear people laugh about the news going overboard.

[coldfingers]

Hi Polar Bear as I see you are on. I am watching this now as a friend who is in hospital is very worried about her grandson who lives just outside NYC. I was hoping to be able to reassure her there is no worry but not so sure now if they are evacuating areas of NY. Will have to keep checking for her I guess.

[Cookie]

this made me laugh!

h

Edited August 26, 2011 by cookie

[Polar Bear]

Hi Polar Bear as I see you are on. I am watching this now as a friend who is in hospital is very worried about her grandson who lives just outside NYC. I was hoping to be able to reassure her there is no worry but not so sure now if they are evacuating areas of NY. Will have to keep checking for her I guess.

Hey CF

Good to cyber see you. Sorry about your friend bet she is worried sick. If you read some of the posts above then there is a feeling that the media is sensationalising a little and if she sees the news she may fear the worst. However they are evacuating the low lying and beach frontage area zones and it is well organised. Do you know where in NY he is?

They wont be evacuating all and NYC as you know is quite large. It is more the flooding of parts I believe which they think will be the main issue. I am sure though her grandson is taking heed of all warnings and the US officials are doing all they can to prepare.

From the meteriological side of things purely she is quite a phenomena. I still cant get over her size. There has been some feeling that she had weakened a little but could now be reoganising to be a consistent cat 2 possibly 3. Good advice from all on here. See what the next public advisory at 10am says.

Wishing your friend's grandson a safe and happy weekend.

Polar Bear

If she is worried can she call her grandson to get some reassurance from him?

[butler_son]

I know exactly where I was this time last year - East Atlantic Beach, NY. I'm talking this very date last year. It's one of the barrier islands off of the South Shore of Long Island, and Irene is gonna pass that way. The people I stayed with live in a basement apartment about 100 yards from the coast (they practically live on the beach). It's gonna be hell for them and I hope they get through it OK. I also have a friend (from back here in Bournemouth) who is currently working in Martha's Vineyard, MA. Might be interesting, that.

Amazing, almost a week to the year that Earl was tearing up the Outer Banks of NC and the same stuff happens again.

And here is a burning question on the lips of many on the Eastern Seaboard: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html

[Downburst]

Power outages are very common in the States in what we would consider benign enough conditions. Part of the reason in my opinion is so many of the cables being over ground and of unbelivable cheap construction, i.e. the cheapest possible solution is deployed in all cases, you see sparks fly in a breeze sometimes, construction there would surprise a lot of people. However I'm sure many people will be without power for days outside the main cities and towns. They use pumps for water so water is an issue, hence everyone needs a generator and I don't think it uncmmon for that to be used a couple of times a year in some places. If they spent the money on good infrastructure in the first place though would this make so much news?

Incidentally not only are the news people blowing it up and up to the nth degree, the politicians will now out do themselves to make pronouncements, governor will out do the mayor etc. etc and the President is using the term "Historic".. I've read some very funny ones already like "Mayor Orders bridge shut" .some more measures and then.....if winds go over 60 mph later in article as an afterthought.

[Polar Bear]

I know exactly where I was this time last year - East Atlantic Beach, NY. I'm talking this very date last year. It's one of the barrier islands off of the South Shore of Long Island, and Irene is gonna pass that way. The people I stayed with live in a basement apartment about 100 yards from the coast (they practically live on the beach). It's gonna be hell for them and I hope they get through it OK. I also have a friend (from back here in Bournemouth) who is currently working in Martha's Vineyard, MA. Might be interesting, that.

Amazing, almost a week to the year that Earl was tearing up the Outer Banks of NC and the same stuff happens again.

And here is a burning question on the lips of many on the Eastern Seaboard: http://www.aoml.noaa.../tcfaq/C5c.html

if hurricanes create so much energy we really need to work out how develope technology to harness this as a renewable....

[coldfingers]

Hey CF

Good to cyber see you. Sorry about your friend bet she is worried sick. If you read some of the posts above then there is a feeling that the media is sensationalising a little and if she sees the news she may fear the worst. However they are evacuating the low lying and beach frontage area zones and it is well organised. Do you know where in NY he is?

They wont be evacuating all and NYC as you know is quite large. It is more the flooding of parts I believe which they think will be the main issue. I am sure though her grandson is taking heed of all warnings and the US officials are doing all they can to prepare.

From the meteriological side of things purely she is quite a phenomena. I still cant get over her size. There has been some feeling that she had weakened a little but could now be reoganising to be a consistent cat 2 possibly 3. Good advice from all on here. See what the next public advisory at 10am says.

Wishing your friend's grandson a safe and happy weekend.

Polar Bear

If she is worried can she call her grandson to get some reassurance from him?

Thank you PB, She is quite an elderly lady and very prone to worrying so i did tell her that brick buildings aren't going to blow away and he is a sensible and very clever fellow so i am sure he and his family will be fine. They have loads of friends they can move in with for a few days if necesary so i am sure all will be well. I just hoped I could reassure her more than that but it looks like it will hit the area although I personally doubt it will be devastating winds by then but certainly the storm surge will likely be bad. So here is hoping everyone there takes heed of any warnings and acts safely. there are always a few dopes who put themselves in danger though.

Oh also it would be hard for her to phone as the hospital wont allow mobiles and of course to use their phones would cost a fortune. her daughter I am sure will keep in touch with her son and reassure her mother.

I have never seen a hurricane cover such a large area apart from Katrina and never such a long way north.

Edited August 26, 2011 by coldfingers

[Polar Bear]

Thank you PB, She is quite an elderly lady and very prone to worrying so i did tell her that brick buildings aren't going to blow away and he is a sensible and very clever fellow so i am sure he and his family will be fine. They have loads of friends they can move in with for a few days if necesary so i am sure all will be well. I just hoped I could reassure her more than that but it looks like it will hit the area although I personally doubt it will be devastating winds by then but certainly the storm surge will likely be bad. So here is hoping everyone there takes heed of any warnings and acts safely. there are always a few dopes who put themselves in danger though.

breaks my heart when I thnk of an elderly lady worrying like that.

poor thing.

yes agreed there are always some that are cowboys and want to riiiide it out...putting others of course at further risks. donuts.

[coldfingers]

breaks my heart when I thnk of an elderly lady worrying like that.

poor thing.

yes agreed there are always some that are cowboys and want to riiiide it out...putting others of course at further risks. donuts.

Yes i reckon the Australians had the correct idea when they wont allow the emergency services out for a few hours at the worst peak. Why should the poor people who man the services risk their own lives because of other idiots. Heavilly pregnant women and very sick people are of course evacuated previously to a safe place.

Sad how many firemen died in the '87 storm in the South many years ago, that however had no forecast at all so the emergency service were true heros to even get out to attempt to help people..

Edited August 26, 2011 by coldfingers

[SalopWatcher]

Anyone know of any live news streams from the soon to be effected areas that we can watch over the next few days?

[Jack Wales]

Looks like dry air entrainement is also a problem now for Irene, this combined with the shear should reduce intensity to weak cat 1 at the most by landfall IMO. She seems to be weakening rapidy now, especially as the structure of the inner core is not presenting well and is unlikely to regenerate at this stage.

Edited August 26, 2011 by Jack Wales

[knocker]

WTNT34 KNHC 262047

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED

STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND....

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO

SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG

ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...

BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE

BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE

MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH

MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK

SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW

YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT

AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY

YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST

OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA

COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER

THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE

IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE

AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA

BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH

CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H...

AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN

PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE

FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN

ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS

EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH

HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER

LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE

AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH

AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA

FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD

INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS

TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY

LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE

VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF

6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES

INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD

CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE

COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN

NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[Cookie]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricanetrack-com#utm_campaign=synclickback&source=http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111584&medium=1748541

live stream here

[picog]

Seas have got rougher, but still people on the beach! Looks exciting...

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/

[SalopWatcher]

cheers that live beach cam looks fairly rough!

I was thinking news streams also

[knocker]

Latest Wilmington radar with sat. overlay and enhanded WV sat. Note the wind barbs alomg the coast are quite light.

[lfcdude]

Seas have got rougher, but still people on the beach! Looks exciting...

http://www.earthcam....na/myrtlebeach/

oh we do like to be beside the seaside... mad people tho walking along the beach hope there get get out before the next few hours

[butler_son]

Some people are just stupid...

[Tom Lynch]

About 36hours before I am due to fly to New York and I have admit I do not feel optimistic about actually taking off from Manchester. I fact I will show my b*m in Burtons window if we do fly out. That begs the question about when I might fly out and when I do what I will find when I get to New York.

So watch this space.

Tom