Major Hurricane Irene

[Cookie]

New York City Hurricane Evacuation Zones

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/08/26/nyregion/new-york-city-hurricane-evacuation-zones.html?hp

[mezzacyclone]

948.7mb (31.800N 77.267W) on the 1st NOAA Orion (mission 30) northward sweep over centre,

previous AF308 pass 950.1mb yet 100mph+ peak FL wind

[Cookie]

NOAA and University of Oklahoma researchers are in North Carolina to deploy two mobile radars and a state-of-the-art instrumented vehicle to intercept Hurricane Irene. They are joining research teams from across the United States to collect an unprecedented hurricane dataset to better understand these devastating storms and protect lives and property. The team includes researchers from the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, the University of Oklahoma (OU), and the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at OU.

Hurricanes are notorious producers of torrential rain. This combined with fierce winds, driving water and waves onshore, can cause devastating flooding even many miles inland.

Scientists will use the unique dataset from this storm to help improve techniques for estimating rainfall in extreme weather events, which will increase the accuracy of flood and flash flood forecasts and warnings. Researchers also want to understand severe turbulence and wind bursts in the hurricane near the ground to help set building code guidelines in hurricane prone areas.

http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/Ireneradar.aspx

[Adi F]

http://www2.wnct.com/

[Polar Bear]

Seas have got rougher, but still people on the beach! Looks exciting...

http://www.earthcam....na/myrtlebeach/

just checked myrtle and I can just make out in the dark that winds are stronger plus you can hear it...although I can also hear someone singing their heart out in a bar or is it music...yep I heard a yo babe and a guitar or something...oh wait a second some bloke has just wlaked out in a red tee shirt hands in pocket on phone slightly staggered and walked back again....music stopped and ooh he is off again..

Not sure it is hitting with any strength down there. Looks like we have had worse on Brighton beach...

PS if anyone is awake do go on the webcam.....if not for a bit of atmostphere!

latest advsiory is she is still a cat 2 with tropical storm conditions on NC coasts

000

WTNT34 KNHC 270257

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NORTH

CAROLINA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LASHING THE CAROLINA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.6N 76.9W

ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH

MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK

SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW

YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT

AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. IRENE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE

COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH

CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE

NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS

FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290

MILES...465 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WEATHERFLOW AUTOMATED

STATION REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A GUST

TO 64 MPH...104 KM/H AT THE FORT MACON STATE PARK NEAR ATLANTIC

BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE

AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND

OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE

WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING

WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER

LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE

AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH

AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA

FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD

INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS

TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY

LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE

VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF

6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

NEW YORK...AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE

COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN

NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 AM EDT AND 300 AM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Edited August 27, 2011 by Polar Bear

[knocker]

Te Morehead City radar at 0533z with lightning and wind barb overlays,. The wind appears to be about 20-25kts along the coast. THe circulation at sea well depicted,

Edited August 27, 2011 by weather ship

[tinybill]

Damn, knew I should have made that bet

well their still people in time sq with out a care in the world with less then 24 hours to go!!!

[knocker]

Notre Dame researcher studying Hurricane Irene's storm surge

While a great number of people are preparing to evacuate in the face of Hurricane Irene, Andrew Kennedy, a researcher in the University of Notre Dame Department of Civil Engineering and Geological Sciences, rushed to the outer banks of North Carolina yesterday in anticipation of its arrival.

Kennedy, a member of Notre Dame's Hydraulic Computation Research Group, is on a helicopter rapidly deploying wave and surge gauges for data collection in conjunction with Irene.

"Irene looks likely to have large impacts in North Carolina and I am at the outer banks to deploy wave/surge gauges with some local North Carolina researchers I have worked with before," Kennedy said." "Depending on landfall location and strength, there is potential for a new inlet to be created as a barrier island is cut, and strong to serve building damage. Irene is large and strong and the best hope for North Carolina is that it goes offshore. If it does, though, it will just push the problem north to New York or New England, so someone is going to get hit badly."

Kennedy's research focuses on waves, surge and currents in the coastal ocean and their effects on human activities.

Storm surge is the wall of water pushed onto land as a hurricane comes ashore. Although high winds are associated with hurricanes, storm surge is actually a greater danger and a leading cause of destruction and death.

Kennedy's colleague Joannes Westerink, the Notre Dame Chair in Computational Hydraulics, is one of the developers of the Advanced Circulation Model, or ADCIRC, an authoritative computer model for storm surge prediction. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the state of Louisiana use the model to determine water levels due to hurricane surge as well as to design appropriate levee heights and alignments.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-08/uond-ndr082611.php

[knocker]

THe latest advanced WV sat. Just really supports the Morehead radar. I think the serious business will be in a few hours further north.

[Jayces]

First hints of this not being as bad as first feared coming from weather 'experts' in the US media, one of them made a comment earlier about this not living up to the hype now as it is losing intensity.

Good news if the dry air entering the system now does start to calm thins down, still going to be a lot of rain and wind but maybe the flooding won't be so bad.

Of course the down side to the good news is that if there is little to no flooding people will become complacant and not want to evacuate next time.....

[Wivenswold]

Word from New Yorker I know is that they were always more worried about the amount of rain this would bring. Many just didn't think it would maintain strength all the way up there. Though they are a stoical bunch so they would say that.

[knocker]

I must be a bit thick as I thought the main worry from the beginning was rainfall and in particular the storm surge.

[weatherobsuk]

Could be just nocturnal cooling playing its part with the increase in latitude. The SST 'warm tongue' still supports Irene until the system is out of the Carolina's by which time dinural heating will be key in the longevity of her maintaining CAT1 status.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at

[Wivenswold]

I must be a bit thick as I thought the main worry from the beginning was rainfall and in particular the storm surge.

What I meant was that a lot of New Yorkers doubted that the system would be a hurricane by the time it reached them.

[Coast]

First hints of this not being as bad as first feared coming from weather 'experts' in the US media, one of them made a comment earlier about this not living up to the hype now as it is losing intensity.

Well, the 'hype' continues:

More than two million people on the US east coast have been told to evacuate their homes as Hurricane Irene nears, packing winds of 90mph (150km/h).

The mayor of New York has ordered an unprecedented evacuation of a quarter of a million people living in low-lying parts of the city. Seven states from North Carolina to Connecticut have declared emergencies ahead of Irene's arrival. US President Barack Obama has warned Irene could be "a historic hurricane".

He has urged people in the projected path of Hurricane Irene - the first hurricane of the Atlantic season - to take precautions. "Don't wait, don't delay. We all hope for the best, but we have to be prepared for the worst. All of us have to take this storm seriously," he said on Friday, before cutting short his holiday in Martha's Vineyard, an island on the Massachusetts coast, a day early to head back to Washington.

The National Hurricane Center has downgraded Irene from a category two to a category one hurricane but says it is still packing hurricane-force winds of 90mph (150km/h) that extend outwards some 90 miles (150km). Tropical-force winds extend as far as 290m (465km). The NHC says Irene is expected to weaken in strength after it hits the coast of North Carolina later on Saturday morning, but is forecast to remain a hurricane as it moves north along the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. President Obama: "If you're in the way of this hurricane you should be preparing now"

More than 200,000 people have already evacuated coastal parts of North Carolina as high waves and strong winds began to lash islands just off the mainland. Residents hoping to ride out the storm have stocked up on food, water and fuel. Forecasters have warned of "extremely dangerous" storm surges in parts of North Carolina that could raise water levels by as much as 11 ft (3.35m).

"Stores are busy, petrol stations are running dry but thankfully I prepared myself last night with supplies," said Alex Schlesinger of Virginia Beach in the neighbouring state of Virginia, also in the hurricane's path. Tens of thousands of people were also on the move in parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and New York City after mandatory evacuations were ordered for people living in low-lying areas.

"We've never done a mandatory evacuation before and we wouldn't be doing it now if we didn't think this storm had the potential to be very serious," said Mayor Michael Bloomberg. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state's transport network, including the New York City subway, would close from midday (16:00 GMT) on Saturday. Airports operating by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey - including JFK, La Guardia and Newark - will close to arriving flights at the same time. However, the airports will remain open for departing flights until further notice. In Washington DC, Sunday's dedication of the new memorial for Martin Luther King Jr - which President Obama had been expected to attend - has been postponed until at least September.

The power company serving the Washington area advised of "potential widespread power outages" at the weekend. Amtrak, the US rail network, announced it was cancelling services between Washington and Boston from Saturday, having already suspended operations south to Virginia and beyond. The Pentagon has loaded 200 trucks with emergency supplies, and 100,000 National Guard troops are on standby, the BBC's Steve Kingstone in New York reports.

The American Red Cross said it was preparing dozens of emergency shelters along the east coast. The eastern seaboard is the most densely populated corridor in the US, with more than 65 million people living in major cities along the coast from Washington to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston. States of emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. "We're going to have damages, we just don't know how bad," Craig Fugate, head of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, told the Associated Press news agency.

"This is one of the largest populations that will be impacted by one storm at one time."

If Irene hits New York and New England at category two, it will be the region's strongest storm since Hurricane Bob glanced off Massachusetts in 1991, and Hurricane Gloria, which caused extensive damage to New York City in 1985.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...canada-14690942

[weatherobsuk]

No reason why Irene won't be a CAT1 upon Long Island landfall, NHC still going for it. Even extratropical reaching out close to the UK shores. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents

[Coast]

NYC Mass Transit system closed:

[Aaron]

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/

A few live webcams to New York City. I think the best one is "Cam 1", it moves around a lot. People don't seem to phased right now, not long to go before Irene is there..

[lfcdude]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather-webcam

[milkmaid]

not sure how long this will work

http://www.surfchex.com/topsail-island-web-cam.php

waves are big

Edited August 27, 2011 by milkmaid

[lfcdude]

not sure how long this will work

http://www.surfchex....and-web-cam.php

waves are big

the pier is taking a beating... is that the one that was just re built?

[peterf]

what time is sun up?

[knocker]

A couple of interesting radar images just in from Morehead City. Both with sat and wind barb overlays.

The wind is now a steady 40kts in places and the centre is easily picked out. The second image is the radial velocity on tilt 1.

Edited August 27, 2011 by weather ship

[lfcdude]

what time is sun up?

Starting to come up now

[peterf]

cracking cam on the pier.