Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[Liam J]

NAE 06z also takes it slightly further to the South than the 00z run, hence probably why the Meto extended the warning area southwards.

[Guest]

How common are 80mph gusts in Scotland in September?

I suppose it all depends where the 80mph gust occurs, I'm pretty sure that at some point somewhere in Scotland there is a 80mph gust every September.

If the 80mph gust happened at Glasgow Airport it would be one of the strongest gusts since 1998 (at any time of year)...even a gust of 75mph at Glasgow Airport would be up there with the worst of the winter storms in recent years.

For more mountainous or coastal areas I wouldn't imagine that 80mph is too exceptional for September, someone like Cookie or Weathermaster could be the best person to update you on this.

[Zenarcher]

For more mountainous or coastal areas I wouldn't imagine that 80mph is too exceptional for September, someone like Cookie or Weathermaster could be the best person to update you on this.

In September 2010 a gust of 91mph was recorded here and funnily enough it was the highest gust of the year.

[fiddiwebb]

How common are 80mph gusts in Scotland in September?

Not "common" unless you live on a mountain top.

[Ladyofthestorm]

we had an 85mph gust here in feb.

[Liam J]

Atlantic satellite image from 9am today and also wind analysis.

[Snow and storms]

Woohoo hope it comes much further south, still the wind speed the Met office are forecasting for south east coast of England are more than I expected early Monday. 49mph gusts that is enough to do some minor damage this time of year?

Can anyone explain why the rain forecast for this storm seems pretty small for the size and warmth of the beast?

[Liam J]

This animation shows Katia transitioning into an extratropical cyclone and losing her eye, look at the speed she moves off to the east out of shot!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[Rob]

Wow, I knew she was moving fast but that is pretty impressive looking at that map!

[fiddiwebb]

Seen the morning forecast??? Gusts up to 70 mph Scotland. Quite common for the area and not exceptional.

Look if it was "common" to have 70 mph gusts of wind in September in Scotland we would never be able to shoot the Haggii down during the season.

[Shadow]

Look if it was "common" to have 70 mph gusts of wind in September in Scotland we would never be able to shoot the Haggii down during the season.

[Argyllcraig]

Seems like there will be a lot of rain wrapped up in this system for sunday night right through until Tuesday afternoon particularly for western Scotland... I think a lot of the usual vulnerable mountain routes could see landslides with the already saturated ground not to mention flooding almost anywhere.

Glad i no longer live down the clyde... areas such as Helensburgh will be particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding as it only takes a normal tide and winds of about 30mph to breach the towns sea defences. I guess many areas up the west coast will have this problem over the next 2 days with sustained strong winds until tuesday.

[shuggee]

Seen the morning forecast??? Gusts up to 70 mph Scotland. Quite common for the area and not exceptional.

Indeed Pit - much more exceptional was the 100mph gust on 23 May 2011 in Perthshire.

Of course, there was nowhere near as much media hype attached to that depression, because it didn't have a girl's name

[P-M]

I am a bit worried now as NE England has turned to Amber although the winds aren't expected until tomorrow evening and in to Tuesday....

[Rob]

Anyone think the Meto might issued a Red warning for this tomorrow?

[lizmartin1981]

I am a bit worried now as NE England has turned to Amber although the winds aren't expected until tomorrow evening and in to Tuesday....

BBC weather north east tweeted me this morning saying anywhere north of durham could see gusts of upto 80mph during rush hour tomorrow night

[Argyllcraig]

Indeed Pit - much more exceptional was the 100mph gust on 23 May 2011 in Perthshire.

Of course, there was nowhere near as much media hype attached to that depression, because it didn't have a girl's name

Agreed with you, that storm snapped trees literally in half even in the middle of Glasgow and it went by as something normal.

[SP1986]

I don't see the reasoning behind extending the 'be aware' warning to the North Midlands for wind.

Certainly the orange be prepared warning in Southern Scotland and not Northern Scotland, is probably down to the effect it will have on a larger population, rather than a more southerly track.

Certainly though I think in reality any type of warning is only really warranted north of Cumbria. But then again who am I to talk, I am afterall not the professional forecaster.

Today I am seeing 30mph gusts, nothing particularly wild - though it is windy, and the setup is similar today, as it will be tomorrow, so I imagine it should stay roughly this windy throughout.

[Rob]

I don't see the reasoning behind extending the warning to the North Midlands, unless it's for rain?

Certainly the orange in Southern Scotland and not Northern Scotland, it probably down to the effect it will have on a larger population, rather than a more southerly track.

Certainly though I think in reality a warning is only really warranted north of Cumbria. But then again who am I to talk, I am afterall not the professional forecaster

Seeing as the warning is for wind, I doubt it's for rain somehow....

I can see exactly why the Met Office have extended the warning, the models are showing potential for gusts up 70mph or even 80mph in some exposed spots in these parts, well within weather warning criteria I believe.

[P-M]

BBC weather north east tweeted me this morning saying anywhere north of durham could see gusts of upto 80mph during rush hour tomorrow night

Really? Well the ground is saturated so we will see some damage wrt felled trees if that comes off! I think this could turn out to be a nasty little storm now!

[SP1986]

Seeing as the warning is for wind, I doubt it's for rain somehow....

I can see exactly why the Met Office have extended the warning, the models are showing potential for gusts up 70mph or even 80mph in some exposed spots in these parts, well within weather warning criteria I believe.

The models are not showing 70-80mph away from Scotland/Northern Ireland, this is very misleading to suggest so.

Top gusts even in Northern England are being shown as around 40-50mph (and this is way up in Cumbria) on the GFS.

Wind gusts on GFS are 10m (mitteleur. if you're on WZ)

[P-M]

The models are not showing 70-80mph away from Scotland/Northern Ireland, this is very misleading to suggest so.

Top gusts even in Northern England are being shown as around 40-50mph (and this is way up in Cumbria) on the GFS.

Wind gusts on GFS are 10m (mitteleur. if you're on WZ)

If that's the case then why has the north of England been placed on an amber alert? Very misleading post IMO

[camiscool]

Am i right in saying that last weekends winds on the south coast were worse than we are going to get tomorrow?

[Aaron]

The models are not showing 70-80mph away from Scotland/Northern Ireland, this is very misleading to suggest so.

Top gusts even in Northern England are being shown as around 40-50mph (and this is way up in Cumbria) on the GFS.

Wind gusts on GFS are 10m (mitteleur. if you're on WZ)

Tell the Met Office that then.

[Rob]

Am i right in saying that last weekends winds on the south coast were worse than we are going to get tomorrow?

What winds? I think the highest I recorded here in Kent was a 35mph gust!