Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[bobbydog]

the atlantic does seem very active but the models (at least the GFS) are showing the high sinking but being replaced by successive HP systems, keeping the current pattern going and pushing the lows on a north easterly track

[Robbie Garrett]

I agree.. Im really stumped regarding this winter now, i still think the best chance is december, wouldnt rule out very late Nov although unlikely, any earlier just isnt going to happen and any later is just too early to speculate.

Well said that man! Honestly, this is the way forward.

[sundog]

I certainly expect all models to firm up on a stormy spell and although i am a firm beliver that the right synoptics could bring a potent cold spell as early as the beginning of November, they rarely seem to happen, 1993 was about the earliest, i seem to remember some heavy snow showers for the east just after mid month but apart from that and last year i dont remember many Novembers full stop that have delivered, maybe one other in the 90s.

November 1996 was a cold November with some snow near the end of the month.

[summer blizzard]

GFS keeps the high to the east much stronger in the reliable time frame than the ECWMF resulting in some differences.

Both models are however much more similar in the latter time frame and in agreement on a cyclonic pattern with a negatively tilted Azores High by day 10.

In summary, tonight's models do indicate a good chance of a polar maritime shot in the day 10-15 period.

[snowlover2009]

Looks like the models are firming up on an unsettled and cool start to November, with phases of polar maritime incursions.

I think we could be looking at a very unsettled month.

[winterof79]

GFS 00z develops a feature out in FI remarkably similar to the one which swung in from the s/w and ended up in the North sea late last November.Long way off,but interesting all the same

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,GFS 00z now showing a cooler scenario out of the reliable timeframe along with ECM at around 192 onwards this also ties in well with the met office extended outlook updated yesterday.nothing too exiting but hopefully might liven things up in here a little.

[mushymanrob]

I think we are looking at a "spoof" run from the 00z gfs to be honest. Its completely out of Kilter from its recent outputs and shows a rather settled ,benign spell with high pressure dominating, which I think is "incorrect "given the ecms output too out to t+240 which shows low pressure dominating, I think we will see a completely different and more unsettled outlook from the gfs following runs!!

indeed you have been proven correct, thankfully, a much more mobile, unsettled run now from the gfs (remember ive not viewed many runs).

[cyclonic happiness]

Hopefully, we'll see the nice northerly, shown in deepest, darkest, coldest, FI, more and more towards a reliable timeframe (reliable? what was that last winter 48hrs? 24hrs?).

I couldn't care less if it's FI, I've seen what I want to and now I can tottle off to work and be happy for the rest of the day thinking about snow and ice and rainbows and parsnips!

[Gibby]

I'm very busy today and tomorrow so not much to report on the models this morning so I won't but from what I've had time to look at the weather looks like typical Autumn fayre really with nothing really cold on offer until deep in GFS FI. That High pressure over Europe though is a real stubborn beast and takes eternity to give way to any meaningful effect. Anyway I should be able to give a more detailed look at the 12zs later. See you then.

Edited October 24, 2011 by Gibby

[Liam J]

Fairly typical autumn weather on offer from the 0z runs, ECM, UKMO and GEM keen for keeping things very unsettled with rain and strong winds at times affecting the UK, things look generally mild although ridges of HP may settle things down for short periods especially towards the SE which could result in local ground frosts under clear skies. The GFS shows a northerly in the furthest depths of FI which will most likely be gone on the 6z run and be replaced with totally different synoptics - good for comedy value!

Edited October 24, 2011 by Liam J

[Cheshire Freeze]

Fairly typical autumn weather on offer from the 0z runs, ECM, UKMO and GEM keen for keeping things very unsettled with rain and strong winds at times affecting the UK, things look generally mild although ridges of HP may settle things down for short periods especially towards the SE which could result in local ground frosts under clear skies. The GFS shows a northerly in the furthest depths of FI which will most likely be gone on the 6z run and be replaced with totally different synoptics - good for comedy value!

Would be foolish to write it off. In fact that's the sort of pattern I have been expecting this November as I stated last week.

[Strider]

Knew as soon as I saw T384 it would be referenced in this thread! Remember just because FI shows cold doesn't give it a shred of credence

In the reliable timeframe there is little to get excited about as we appear to be entering a phase of westerlies.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Im getting a little bit of dejavue here 2001-2002 winter perhaps? Found this old chart....compare this one to the 0Z run for the same day. I just wonder..hmmm

[Liam J]

Would be foolish to write it off. In fact that's the sort of pattern I have been expecting this November as I stated last week.

I will take note when this has any support and it's not in the depths of FI past 300hrs on the GFS, which you know as well as anyone is LA LA land - where all your synoptic dreams may come true virtually for a limited time only

Edited October 24, 2011 by Liam J

[Cheshire Freeze]

Knew as soon as I saw T384 it would be referenced in this thread! Remember just because FI shows cold doesn't give it a shred of credence

In the reliable timeframe there is little to get excited about as we appear to be entering a phase of westerlies.

If it was showing a Bartlett it would be written off.

Not true, I remember several instances last year when the GFS 'nailed' patterns in far FI with several members poo-pooing the idea. Granted, the pattern was picked up, dropped then picked up again but they made it to the reliable.

I will take note when this has any support and it's not in the depths of FI past 300hrs on the GFS, which you know as well as anyone it's LA LA land - where all your synoptic dreams may come true.

I agree, chances are slim, but it does back up my November thoughts. I'll add, yes I'm a coldie but that doesn't cloud my judgement. FWIW I don't see any cold past late Jan- a front ended winter for me again.

Edited October 24, 2011 by CreweCold

[Strider]

Not true, I remember several instances last year when the GFS 'nailed' patterns in far FI with several members poo-pooing the idea. Granted, the pattern was picked up, dropped then picked up again but they made it to the reliable.

This is yesterday's T384 from the 00z - were you saying the same thing yesterday, or just today because it's showing cold?

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011102300-0-384.png?0

I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that it's not really of note until it gets within at least T200

[Liam J]

I agree, chances are slim, but it does back up my November thoughts. I'll add, yes I'm a coldie but that doesn't cloud my judgement. FWIW I don't see any cold past late Jan- a front ended winter for me again.

I'm in the coldie camp aswell, maybe not as hardcore as you because I would also take less cold conditions if it meant stormy Atlantic periods -preferably with northerly flood gates opening up on the exit with gales and snowfall

I'm not affraid to eat humble pie should a GFS pattern in FI move closer into the reliable time frame and god forbid even varify! Very very unlikely but not impossible

[Ladyofthestorm]

Lol lets have a game of spot the difference!

06Z model....

00Z model

[SP1986]

To be honest we should probably concentrate on the pre-180 hour timeframe rather than the post 180 hour timeframe, because the nearer time will give us better clues as to the potential direction of the later timeframes. I'm certainly not convinced of what the GFS is showing in FI, not until ECM agrees.

[snowlover2009]

While, people may want support from the ecm, to back gfs up, GFS does show polar maritime air to start November, before the cold showing in FI. The ecm, only last night and the day before also showed polar maritime air, with that huge storm. So, not a million miles from both showing the same thing.

[Liam J]

GFS 06z is a very usettled run which fits in with the outputs from the other models, 06z isn't as keen to have HP ridge towards the UK for any length of time, it flattens the HP and steams the Atlantic through. more possibility of northerly outbreaks on this run even if they are likely to be topplers in between depressions, I'd take that - a bit of exciting weather.

Wet and windy at times probably best sums up the outlook, with the odd decent day here and there mainly towards the SE who actually need the rain the most before big problems arise. Temperatues mainly around or slightly above average with the risk of some cooler interludes.

Edited October 24, 2011 by Liam J

[Met4Cast]

This is yesterday's T384 from the 00z - were you saying the same thing yesterday, or just today because it's showing cold?

http://91.121.84.31/...300-0-384.png?0

I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that it's not really of note until it gets within at least T200

I was about to say something similar. When we have raging zonal being shown in FI, it's immediately written off as "FI" and "not going to happen" but if its a cold setup being shown right at the very end, in the deepest FI possible, everyone posts about it as if its just 24 hours away. I suppose we are ALL guilty of it, though.

I can't see any change in the next couple of weeks, generally Low Pressure in charge bringing some wet and windy weather to us all, I don't expect we'll see a pattern change until around the middle of November.

[Snowmad79]

I havent seen one post since i've been back to the forum actually "writing off" a mild outlook. Are we not even allowed to discuss cold charts at all ?

Just becuase people talk about what a particular chart shows doesnt mean they're not taking into account what the run means for our weather in realistic terms.

Edited October 24, 2011 by Snowmad79

[Met4Cast]

I havent seen one post since i've been back to the forum actually "writing off" a mild outlook. Are we not even allowed to discuss cold charts at all ?

Just becuase people talk about what a particular chart shows doesnt mean they're not taking into account what it means for our weather realistically.

Lighten up mildies please.

Oh I definitely wasn't having a go or anything like that, I do exactly the same thing, if I see a nice cold setup out in FI, I get excited and post about it more than I would if it were showing zonal, it's just amusing how our logic can work like that sometimes.