Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[scotty_boy_winter]

This is the type of pattern my met office relative was alluding to. Very tough pattern to shift, even more so when the atmosphere is so ripe for polar vortex development! I think patience is going to be key. Winter could be tough viewing this winter.....I feel we've been spoilt the past 2 years

[damianslaw]

This is the type of pattern my met office relative was alluding to. Very tough pattern to shift, even more so when the atmosphere is so ripe for polar vortex development! I think patience is going to be key. Winter could be tough viewing this winter.....I feel we've been spoilt the past 2 years

Yes the synoptical output being shown for the foreseeable future is preety much text book stuff for the time of year - all very seasonal it has to be said, this is the time of year when you expect the atlantic to fire into its highest gear and it often doesn't relent properly until around middle of December with the odd temporary short lived repreive usually about third week Nov. Early December is when westerlies on average are at their yearly maxim. Perhaps because of the last three years some have forgotton just what we should normally expect to see during late autumn/early winter. The last three years have seen an erratic atlantic during the latter part of autumn and into early winter with much stronger blocking to our east and especially NE (though it has to be said 2009 did see a very mobile pattern right through until mid Dec it was just that most of the wind and rain affected western parts thanks to stronger heights to our east - the jet then was actually very far to the north) .

If we are about to enter a lengthy phase of atlantic dominated weather, do not despair this is all very normal service and may suggest we are about to see a more traditional winter - with the cold and snow reserved for the core winter months of Jan and Feb as opposed to late Nov and Dec.

[Liam J]

GFS 18z continues with the unsettled outlook right through the run, as ever areas to the SE will escape the worse weather being closer to any HP over Europe.

Some stormy looking weather later on through the run when things become very active indeed with potentailly damaging depressions hurling towards the UK from the Atlantic.

A very disturbed picture in the long term, I think we could be heading for a very action packed start to November.

Edited October 24, 2011 by Liam J

[nick sussex]

If we were heading into December the current output would certainly deserve this for those hoping for anything remotely wintry!

The pattern looks stuck for the timebeing with troughing to the west and pressure likely to remain reasonably high to the east and se.

[feb1991blizzard]

18z GFS an absolutely dyer run from start to finish, culminating in 955mb worth to the North and 1025mb worth to the south, swap them around and we would be in business. i think im going to chill out for a couple of weeks, im dont want to do what i did last winter and viewing every model run, better to just have a brief look at all the output once a day untill something interesting happens, be it Teleconnective signals, model runs or media forecasts. I really cant see anything happening before december now regarding potent cold.

Edited October 24, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Stormyking]

Dont worry yet guys, it is only the end of october, would rather get this type of weather out of the way sooner, rather than later.

The models looking very unsettled but am looking forward to it, as it means excitement and action in weather, which hasn't been much of as of late.

End of November onwards is when I will start looking for the cold, but in the meantime I am going to enjoy some proper autumn weather coming up

[Aaron]

It does fustrate me no end when people start searching for cold, wintry weather in October, then complain there's no cold weather in the reliable time frame. There's 3 months of winter, yes that includes February believe it or not, a whole four months away, and then we have March and April which can often provide wintry weather.

[Snowmad79]

It does fustrate me no end when people start searching for cold, wintry weather in October, then complain there's no cold weather in the reliable time frame. There's 3 months of winter, yes that includes February believe it or not, a whole four months away, and then we have March and April which can often provide wintry weather.

Luckily for you no-one is actually complaining about anything. Everyone has "realisticly" agreed the outlook is a grim one for the forseeable.

This mornings runs (GFS & UKMO) as EXPECTED out to FI, still zonal and looking wetter away from the south/southeast though most will see rain on and off through into the beggining of November, temps mild though occasionaly cooler the further N and NW you are situated.

[mushymanrob]

It does fustrate me no end when people start searching for cold, wintry weather in October, then complain there's no cold weather in the reliable time frame.

it frustrates me full stop!

imho there should be a thread for coldies to indulge their strange fascination for cold and free up this thread for those of us who are just interested in weather.

[Paul]

Strange concept I know, but perhaps we could even try a thread just for talking about the models? Do you think that may work?!

[Alex]

The models are showing a very similar scenairo to now going forward with high pressure to our south/east and a trough to our west promoting warm southerly winds at times and a good deal of rain/wind for northern and western areas however the odd splash of polar maritime air from a northwesterly is possible. Southeastern areas won't escape the rain but it looks a good deal drier. I can't see anything remotely connected to jet streams moving south or cold uppers moving just off our shores before anyone decides any slight shift is the start of the ice age lol.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Alex

[Timmytour]

The models show plenty of potential for the replenishing of reservoirs (where needed) with the power required to knock the last of the stubborn leaves from their trees.

It fills me with hope for the winter.....the fact that things are looking so autumnal when it is...autumn! Not alwasy been the case!

[Liam J]

It's a case of as you were with the 00z runs, unsettled with wet and windy weather the further north and west you are. fairly mild for the time of year with temperatures above average at times with predominantly S or SW winds.

I wonder how long we'll be locked into this pattern? No real upstream signals for any major pattern change at present and the NAO is set to strengthen and remain positive for some time.

This is autumn and the model outputs are reflecting the season well just the the moment, typical autumn weather on offer.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Liam J

[Methuselah]

Please, can we refrain from cold versus mild antagonism?

[The PIT]

If we do see a strengthening polar vortex we maybe stuck in the run like this for a while but with Lows getting more vigorous and closer to the uK. At the moment a long run of Lows to the west or north west while high pressure to SE looks like keeping the east much drier. So mild wet in the west and north drier in the east and south. ECM looks like the lows will be a bit too far away to give the UK much in the way of widespread windy weather so that looks like being confined to the west and north west as well.

[wimblettben]

If we do see a strengthening polar vortex we maybe stuck in the run like this for a while but with Lows getting more vigorous and closer to the uK. At the moment a long run of Lows to the west or north west while high pressure to SE looks like keeping the east much drier. So mild wet in the west and north drier in the east and south. ECM looks like the lows will be a bit too far away to give the UK much in the way of widespread windy weather so that looks like being confined to the west and north west as well.

ECM looks like the lows will be a bit too far away to give the UK much in the way of widespread windy weather so that looks like being confined to the west and north west as well.

This has been the case for nearly two years now.

We never seem to get the proper stormy weather we used to get.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It does look like a pretty mobile pattern but with high pressure dominant to the east and south-east, the emphasis will be on tropical maritime air with just fleeting polar maritime incursions and the deep depressions being held out to the W and NW of Britain, so a lot of "modest" weather is likely with some belts of persistent light-moderate rain and some drier and sometimes brighter weather in between. However, we do have a returning polar maritime incursion at present, which will bring some sharp showers into southern England this afternoon, and more widely across western and southern parts tomorrow.

There is still a possible dry, sunny and warm interlude for eastern and southern Britain on Friday and Saturday with high pressure and southerly winds, and the GFS outputs continuing to suggest limited cloud cover, though Scotland, Ireland and Wales again look like having more cloud and some rain for the north-west.

Current model outputs suggest that the Atlantic lows will generally come in closer in about a week's time, but the emphasis will remain on tropical maritime air, so rather dull and damp for most of the country.

[kold weather]

Classic split type weather coming up, with the main theme for pretty much all of us being a very mild pattern, even borderline warm at times. Rainfall higher in the west obviously.

Pattern is a horrid one if it rolls forward into winter, so need to hope for a large scale synoptic change between now and then!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just had a look at the CFS.

If that is to be believed then winter would be unsettled with very little cold weather.

[shedhead]

Just had a look at the CFS.

If that is to be believed then winter would be unsettled with very little cold weather.

Could you post the link to the CFS outputs please RD?

Edited October 25, 2011 by shedhead

[Radiating Dendrite]

Could you post the link to the CFS outputs please RD?

They are in the netweather extra section Shedhead.

[Liam J]

Just had a look at the CFS.

If that is to be believed then winter would be unsettled with very little cold weather.

The CFS has been very consistant with this outlook, it has to be said.

I'm not sure of any statistics for this model.

[Don]

The CFS has been very consistant with this outlook, it has to be said.

I'm not sure of any statistics for this model.

In my view this model tends to be pretty good once it picks up on a trend as it did for December last year for example. So, not a good outlook....

[Radiating Dendrite]

The CFS has been very consistant with this outlook, it has to be said.

I'm not sure of any statistics for this model.

I would disagree.

Last week it was showing some decent heights developing over Scandi and Greenland during January (I am referring to the raw data output).

I think the only thing we can take from the CFS at the moment is that we are likely to see more in the way of unsettled weather this winter compared to last year.

I am still thinking a period of cold zonality could be a good shout.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[Liam J]

I would disagree.

Last week it was showing some decent heights developing over Scandi and Greenland during January (I am referring to the raw data output).

I think the only thing we can take from the CFS at the moment is that we are likely to see more in the way of unsettled weather this winter compared to last year.

I am still thinking a period of cold zonality could be a good shout.

Sorry consistant was the wrong word I didn't mean consecutive runs, perhaps not all, but the majority of the CFS raw outputs show unsettled weather into the winter period. Tbh I wouldn't read too much into the CFS output.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Liam J