Mild Weather

[phil nw.]

At least today the sun is out and it`s really pleasnt out there.

Flowers still in bloom in the garden,roses,lilies,fuschias etc.

I have only had 1 ground frost so far and the colours look lovely in this low sun.

I love cold weather but as yet not too concerned about this extended warmth.Plenty of time for that from next month.

Last year the cold started early but really this is more typical Autumn weather except for the lack of frosts.

Edited November 12, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[jean91]

Well here in Paris after a very grey day yesterday and barely 11c today is another story with a nice sunshine and stunning temps for a 12th november 17.6c in central Paris currently

20c is reached at what about 150 miles south west of Paris!!!!!!in Pays Basque extreme south west of France ( Biarritz area) they are sunbathing and swimming with temps over 25c locally!!!!!!!

Never been that warm all over france for first of decade of november ( up till the 10th nov)really where is the cold coming or at least average temps??????? ( i posted in autumm about that)

[Strider]

Depends on your detention of a special winter.. I'll be happy with average, which includes snow, frost and the odd ice day or too thrown in for good measure.. winter doesn't have to be sub-zero for weeks to be a good 'un!

Anyone hoping for a mild winter, take a look outside, what do you see!? I see nothing, because my windows are obscured by fog!!!

January 2011 was average in terms of temperatures and hardly anyone saw snow

[95 Degrees]

Well here in Paris after a very grey day yesterday and barely 11c today is another story with a nice sunshine and stunning temps for a 12th november 17.6c in central Paris currently

20c is reached at what about 150 miles south west of Paris!!!!!!in Pays Basque extreme south west of France ( Biarritz area) they are sunbathing and swimming with temps over 25c locally!!!!!!!

Never been that warm all over france for first of decade of november ( up till the 10th nov)really where is the cold coming or at least average temps??????? ( i posted in autumm about that)

Yes it is amazing how warm that South-western corner of France gets sometimes for it's latitude and being by the Atlantic Coast, I remember when it was 31C there this April and 18C overnight in early January this year and 38/39C twice this summer, if anyone likes very mild winters closer to home with rare blasts of cold (sometimes down to -9 during severe spells of cold) that is your sort of place! Sevilla is 27C also in Spain which is unusual in Mid-November even for one of the warmest cites in Europe.

[The PIT]

Hurrah the suns out after five days of dull trash. Of course i couldn't enjoy because I was moving furniture around for the decorator next week. Sods law really isn't it. Still nice to see though.

[reef]

2011 will definitely not be the warmest year on record.

Autumn 2011 could be the second warmest on record.. it certainly doesn't feel like it though. Besides late September/early October Autumn has been pretty dull.. here at least, and not very warm, but mild nights.

As mentioned in the CET thread, a November of 7.8C is required for the 2nd warmest Autumn on record, which looks pretty certain at the moment.

December and November need a cumulative CET of 17.0C for this year to be the warmest on record. Its extremely unlikely, but still possible.

For the second warmest year on record a cumulative CET of 14.8C is needed, which is very possible. An 8.8C November and 6.0C December would do it for example.

[AderynCoch]

January 2011 was average in terms of temperatures and hardly anyone saw snow

February 1986 was well below average in terms of temperatures and even then some places saw no snow.

Edited November 12, 2011 by AderynCoch

[Dorsetbred]

As mentioned in the CET thread, a November of 7.8C is required for the 2nd warmest Autumn on record, which looks pretty certain at the moment.

December and November need a cumulative CET of 17.0C for this year to be the warmest on record. Its extremely unlikely, but still possible.

For the second warmest year on record a cumulative CET of 14.8C is needed, which is very possible. An 8.8C November and 6.0C December would do it for example.

Quite on the cards I'd say...

[Eugene]

Yes this weather is really grinding me down. I'd rather have 24 hour darkness than this constant half light rubbish!

Wow a really warm autumn not far off record breaking is getting you down, surprised you aren't very happy, dont think 24 hr darkness would be any good for you, i mean imagine how much colder it would with no sunlight to rise temps we would have some very very cold temps recorded indeed, the temps would just get colder and colder every day

[AderynCoch]

But apart from that exceptional late taste of summer in late September/early October, the mildness has generally been of the grey dreary variety.

Sunlight becomes less and less influential as we head into winter, with the origin of the airmass becoming more important with regards to temperatures. A cloudy day in winter is more likely to be warmer than a sunny one.

[damianslaw]

We really could have done with these synoptic in the summer. In recent years all our best weather seems to be occuring in spring and autumn. Indeed recent autumns have been exceptionally benign with so few storms etc.. yes we have had the odd blip such as Nov 2009 but in the main autumn has become the best season for settled quiet weather. Hoping next year will see a change in fortune with the best conditions reserved for the summer.

[95 Degrees]

We really could have done with these synoptic in the summer. In recent years all our best weather seems to be occuring in spring and autumn. Indeed recent autumns have been exceptionally benign with so few storms etc.. yes we have had the odd blip such as Nov 2009 but in the main autumn has become the best season for settled quiet weather. Hoping next year will see a change in fortune with the best conditions reserved for the summer.

Sort of, but isn't this current set-up a bit like the set-up we saw in summer, with slack HP stubborn to shift and a very quiet Atlantic, the only difference perhaps being that this pattern is less showery and windy and winds are westerly than the NW dominated pattern of the non summer of 2011, yes it might have made a fair difference with HP in Europe pumping up southerly air from time to time, but perhaps 2005 or 2001 style rather than 2003 or 2006, I do see your point though and it is frustrating than we get more southerlies now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think Damienslaw has a strong case. It all depends on the positioning of the high pressure- the main anticyclonic spell of Summer 2011 was that spell during late July when high pressure sat stubbornly to the west and north-west of the UK bringing chilly northerly and north-easterly winds, and it was dry and sunny in the west but dull in the east. The setup we have now, with high pressure to the east and north-east, is quite similar to what we had for a time during April 2011, but with low pressure a bit closer to the west, but at the same time the low pressure is a lot further west than we saw for most of the rest of Summer 2011. Thus, if these synoptics were to occur in summer we'd probably be looking at a hot thundery spell for most, with a fair amount of sunshine for most but with some low cloud for the coasts of E Scotland and NE England.

[Isolated Frost]

Hi Ian- where do you think the best place for a CLEAR winter anticyclone to be positioned? And where would it be sourced from? A lot of charts I see show the best place is just east of the uk, in the north sea, what do you think?

[Strider]

February 1986 was well below average in terms of temperatures and even then some places saw no snow.

I think Jan/Feb/March 2006 too!

Over a winter you would expect to see snow falling at some point. But for major snow events with accumulations of above, say, 5cm is an exceptional event IMO (for most people)

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I think Jan/Feb/March 2006 too!

Over a winter you would expect to see snow falling at some point. But for major snow events with accumulations of above, say, 5cm is an exceptional event IMO (for most people)

Yes away from the mountains of Scotland the number of days where snow falls and actually lays is very small.

[Isolated Frost]

NE England, NE Scotland and E Anglia see large snow falling/lying due to their proximity to north and north east winds. W Scotland and NI also would do well I'd imagine due to their exposure from North to West.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

NE England, NE Scotland and E Anglia see large snow falling/lying due to their proximity to north and north east winds. W Scotland and NI also would do well I'd imagine due to their exposure from North to West.

Your regions days of lying snow range from 10 days per year on the coast to over 40 days over the higher Pennines. The number of days with snow falling for your region is a average of 20 days for the coast and low lying inland areas and over 50 days for the high Pennines.

[The PIT]

Boo dull drizzle mild rubbish is back. Looks like we may have yet another week of the dreary rubbish.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed it is. Dull and dark with a light southeasterly breeze. Yipee!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hi Ian- where do you think the best place for a CLEAR winter anticyclone to be positioned? And where would it be sourced from? A lot of charts I see show the best place is just east of the uk, in the north sea, what do you think?

I think so, as it means that we don't pick up much moisture from the Atlantic or from the North Sea, and so if the continent is reasonably clear then we should be clear too. These circumstances gave rise to the unusually clear anticyclones in December 2001 and February 2008. However, in winter there's no such thing as a reliable positioning for clear weather as continental Europe can be prone to persistent banks of cloud. A stark illustration of this occurred in late December 2006, when after a sunny anticyclonic spell before Christmas, the high pulled out into the North Sea bringing banks of cloud up from France, and on Christmas Day itself it stayed pretty dark all day.

A high on top of the country can also deliver a clear spell as long as we don't input much tropical maritime air around the high's northern flank. I remember a very sunny anticyclonic spell in Cleadon in February 2001 from that setup, but again it's not dependable- many such highs start off with a few sunny days and then anticyclonic gloom sets in.

[AderynCoch]

I think Damienslaw has a strong case. It all depends on the positioning of the high pressure- the main anticyclonic spell of Summer 2011 was that spell during late July when high pressure sat stubbornly to the west and north-west of the UK bringing chilly northerly and north-easterly winds, and it was dry and sunny in the west but dull in the east. The setup we have now, with high pressure to the east and north-east, is quite similar to what we had for a time during April 2011, but with low pressure a bit closer to the west, but at the same time the low pressure is a lot further west than we saw for most of the rest of Summer 2011. Thus, if these synoptics were to occur in summer we'd probably be looking at a hot thundery spell for most, with a fair amount of sunshine for most but with some low cloud for the coasts of E Scotland and NE England.

Yes, it's all rather frustrating from a heat-loving point of view, though at least the autumn heatwave was more than sufficient enough to feel like summer. To think that many heat-lovers saw that spell of weather as a case of "too little, too late", when in fact we ended up with widespread clear skies and maxima in the high 20s - what do they make of the stubborn pattern we're currently stuck in?

[TonyH]

Don't be frustrated, get out and enjoy it! Sunny 15c here in the Midlands and an exceptinal 17c back home in Wales.

[Snowstorm1]

Don't be frustrated, get out and enjoy it! Sunny 15c here in the Midlands and an exceptinal 17c back home in Wales.

Sure low cloud , miserable day and temps around 11c im loving this ! (Nawt )

[AderynCoch]

Yes, I'm missing out on 14C and weak November sunshine (at least it actually is sunny though). Give me frost and fog.