Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

[Snowmad79]

00zECM maintaining its position not too dissimilar in pattern, GFS on board, looking good for the continuance of the cooldown with decent early signs of Decemeber weather that will something for everyone. Only yesterday some folk were speaking that only mild could be seen way into December??? A normal December anyone?

BFTP

The ecm looks more milder and drier for alot of people from 144hr, from what I can tell.

Edited November 26, 2011 by Snowmad79

[Aaron]

I posted way back in October what the met expected for this coming winter from my relative who works as a senior forecaster (and got shot down) I have to say I've never ever seen them as confident of a mild and snowless winter

But the Met Office are forecasting no such thing, do you see? Mr. Porky Pies.

[johnholmes]

I posted way back in October what the met expected for this coming winter from my relative who works as a senior forecaster (and got shot down) I have to say I've never ever seen them as confident of a mild and snowless winter

I would be grateful if, via a pm, you could give me the name of that forecaster-I will keep the information confidential-please

thanks

John

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The ecm looks more milder and drier for alot of people from 144hr, from what I can tell.

No, Post 168 it is look at the temp profile. That is FI though and models need to get upto T120 right first.

BFTP

I posted way back in October what the met expected for this coming winter from my relative who works as a senior forecaster (and got shot down) I have to say I've never ever seen them as confident of a mild and snowless winter

Thats good news then

BFTP

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im afraid its a very poor picture for cold weather fans again this morning.

LP locked in over the Arctic,frigid startosphere,might see the odd day of transient pm air over the coming 10 days (and thats being generous)but apart from that,its a very sorry outlook and the NH profile is as bad as iv'e seen it in the run up to winter.

[nick sussex]

Not much change this morning, very good agreement across the board with a typical unsettled spell of weather, some milder days interspersed with cooler ones, a few glancing blows of PM air possible.

The ECM does look most amplified in the early stages but then flattens the pattern out wth the Azores high ridging in later, this is always likely to happen once the jet flattens.

Overall the models continue to keep low heights to the north meaning its difficult to tap into anything much colder.

Theres a relatively low spread of ECM ensemble members to the north in terms of pressure , the main point of some uncertainty is over the UK and in towards central Europe, this is probably to do with how far north and east the Azores high will get.

As a rule in this type of pattern if you're in the UK and want to maintain some cooler type of zonality then you need pressure to remain lowish in central Europe, if the Azores high extends the ridge into there then generally it becomes milder.

Edited November 26, 2011 by nick sussex

[Nick F]

It still looks to cool down quite a bit by the end of next week, as the jet takes on a more NW-SE track across NW Europe, but, the continuation of low heights at higher latitudes and strong belt of westerlies along the polar front will mean any cold will likely be flirting at best as we head through early December.

What doesn't look too promising for cold and snow lovers, looking at the medium range forecasts upstream, is the signal for a strong ridge building over NW USA and western Canada which corresponds to troughing over eastern N America and the NW Atlantic wich may lead to a return of a Bartlett or Euro high downstream as we head through December.

I can't wait for some wintry weather, but realistically it looks rather fleeting away from the Scottish Hills.

[shedhead]

The ecm looks more milder and drier for alot of people from 144hr, from what I can tell.

Agreed, standard fayre really in here for some, pick the model with the coldest solution and big it up. Nothing has really changed across the model suite this morning, cooler and unsettled through the turn of the month, but any cold weather looks as far away as ever, with wind and rain likely to be the two main talking points.

Edited November 26, 2011 by shedhead

[wolvesfan]

Im afraid its a very poor picture for cold weather fans again this morning.

LP locked in over the Arctic,frigid startosphere,might see the odd day of transient pm air over the coming 10 days (and thats being generous)but apart from that,its a very sorry outlook and the NH profile is as bad as iv'e seen it in the run up to winter.

I agree we seem to be heading back to the euro/bartlett high regardless of which path we take,for me the stratosphere being the main driver at the moment.Thats IMHO where we need to be looking for change not the models.cheers.

[nick sussex]

It still looks to cool down quite a bit by the end of next week, as the jet takes on a more NW-SE track across NW Europe, but, the continuation of low heights at higher latitudes and strong belt of westerlies along the polar front will mean any cold will likely be flirting at best as we head through early December.

What doesn't look too promising for cold and snow lovers, looking at the medium range forecasts upstream, is the signal for a strong ridge building over NW USA and western Canada which corresponds to troughing over eastern N America and the NW Atlantic wich may lead to a return of a Bartlett or Euro high downstream as we head through December.

I can't wait for some wintry weather, but realistically it looks rather fleeting away from the Scottish Hills.

In terms of that eastern USA trough wouldn't that depend on its amplitude, of course if its flat not good news, more amplified better. So you're expecting a broad flattish trough then?

If that trough does set up then the cold lovers in here better get on their prayer mats and start chanting for some amplification upstream!

[wolvesfan]

In terms of that eastern USA trough wouldn't that depend on its amplitude, of course if its flat not good news, more amplified better. So you're expecting a broad flattish trough then?

If that trough does set up then the cold lovers in here better get on their prayer mats and start chanting for some amplification upstream!

I think we could be setting up a 24hour vigil in the stratosphere temp thread also.

[Nick F]

In terms of that eastern USA trough wouldn't that depend on its amplitude, of course if its flat not good news, more amplified better. So you're expecting a broad flattish trough then?

If that trough does set up then the cold lovers in here better get on their prayer mats and start chanting for some amplification upstream!

I suspect that the eastern US trough won't be particularly deep - based on the signal for strong upper westerlies across the NE Pacific and over N America below the deep vortex over high latitudes, though can't rule out more amplification showing in later runs which would, like you say, work more in our favour downstream by forcing the ridge north over the Atlantic - rather than east into Europe.

[carinthian]

It still looks to cool down quite a bit by the end of next week, as the jet takes on a more NW-SE track across NW Europe, but, the continuation of low heights at higher latitudes and strong belt of westerlies along the polar front will mean any cold will likely be flirting at best as we head through early December.

What doesn't look too promising for cold and snow lovers, looking at the medium range forecasts upstream, is the signal for a strong ridge building over NW USA and western Canada which corresponds to troughing over eastern N America and the NW Atlantic wich may lead to a return of a Bartlett or Euro high downstream as we head through December.

I can't wait for some wintry weather, but realistically it looks rather fleeting away from the Scottish Hills.

Hi Nick,

Yes, thats what are Zamg longer range subscription forecasts are indicting. However, that set up will induce some colder maritime incurrsions into the Eastern Alps.

C

[shedhead]

Hi C

So basically the Zamg got it wrong a few weeks ago when forecasting a pattern change in late November? I assume by following the 32 day ECM, or do they run their own model?

[carinthian]

Hi C

So basically the Zamg got it wrong a few weeks ago when forecasting a pattern change in late November? I assume by following the 32 day ECM, or do they run their own model?

Yes they got it wrong. However, like most Euro countries the prolonged mild spell has just been phenominal with the relentless high pressure parked over Austria.. Here the snow level is retricted to Glacier levels. In all fairness to Zamg the prediction for most of this year has been good.

c

[shedhead]

It is looking like the well oiled machine that characterised so many of, er, those fairly recent winters when such a pattern would roll along into January and February. Still, what is happening is by no means unusual for any late Autumn/early Winter period ity is very early days.

Ouch!! That of course is the fear, which until now has been the big elephant in the room...but someone had to say it

Yes they got it wrong. However, like most Euro countries the prolonged mild spell has just been phenominal with the relentless high pressure parked over Austria.. Here the snow level is retricted to Glacier levels. In all fairness to Zamg the prediction for most of this year has been good.

c

Yes, you said that previously, but I suppose that is of little consellation to the locals who wanted this one to be right above all others. Watching the luge for Igls now you can see just how high up the snow level is, but obviously the directors are not keen to protray such a green Tyrol, so glimses are very limited.

Ouch!! That of course is the fear, which until now has been the big elephant in the room...but someone had to say it

Edited November 26, 2011 by shedhead

[Methuselah]

I would think that by the middle of next month we will have seen an exceptional spell of above average temperatures stretching back to October, certainly CET wise, if not necessarily encompassing N Ireland and Scotland.

But I'm sure some folks will see it as proof-positive evidence of global cooling? :winky:

[Iceaxecrampon]

1/12/11 Again as forecast last week....

Reload next weekend 3/12/11 looks good for Alba.

A reasonably good 06z for coldies - Well mild out there today although the wind is getting up and taking the edge off.

Will be interesting on the tops tomorrow.......

Edited November 26, 2011 by Iceaxecrampon

[wolvesfan]

But I'm sure some folks will see it as proof-positive evidence of global cooling? :winky:

I think the only thing it does prove is that because of our geographical position we are likely to experience vastly diffrent patterns of weather.surely the global warming/cooling comment not relevant to this thread.

[AWD]

The 06z GFS provides some fairly deep LP systems over the NW of the UK with winds and rain for all, more so the further NW you are!

With these LP systems, the -5c uppers gets pulled in over our shores, again more so to the north of the UK!

With the strong winds and chilly uppers, the days that this happens will feel quite raw, especially to the public who have become accustomed to the mild Autumn conditions we have had so far!

Otherwise it's how you are! Much more active than recently which is at least something more interesting to model watch!

[kold weather]

The charts at T144/T168 are often subtley diferenct from the reaility as secondary features develop and maintain a milder flow, certainly across the Southern half.

However we view it, we are looking at a deepening vortex to the North and North West, and a prolonged spell of zonality.

On top of that more than a few hints both in terms of the analogs and indeed in terms of the GFS FI of the high pressure belt developing over Europe again, so I suspect any colder shots may not be lasting all that long...

[rich1]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2402.png

not exactly warm. Cool zonality in evidence in this run with occasional glancing blows from the north

not an 'exciting' picture for cold but not a complete bust for northern areas especially

goes naff again in the final frames but a bridge to be crossed later. Would not be suprised to see it being the warmest ensemble run again at the very end

Edited November 26, 2011 by rich1

[phil nw.]

The overnight runs really emphasise the Zonal pattern that we are now entering-- with less amplitude it looks a milder scenario than the 12z`s of yesterday.

Still some brief skirmishes with Polar air into the North at times but mainly a mild outlook for many.

Towards the end of next week it does looks a little colder for a short time

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax84s.gif

but the Azores High moves in and the flow turns to a milder South West again.

The mean Hts comparisons days 8-10 tells it`s own story

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

A pretty rock solid old fashioned mainly mild zonal pattern.

The main hope for any cold is for some ridging further north in the Mid-Atlantic to turn the winds towards North of West but with such a strong Vortex any cold incursions would be shortlived.

Edited November 26, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,

The strentgh of the polar vortex keeping the flow mobile at the moment,there may be a chance of it also saving us from the the pressure rise from our south that the models seem keen on.At best i think we will only end up with a westerly flow though.

[Robbie Garrett]

Going to be an interesting few weeks, I can't remember the last time I've been blown off my feet by the wind down south. Must have been 2005/2006 since we had a really good stormy period.