Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

[danm]

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Edited November 26, 2011 by danm

[shedhead]

I love how the GFS winds these features up in the lower resolution, but seriously if the PV does get to something like this it would be difficult to see a way back before the middle of January, never mind December ;

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3241.png

Frankly I don't think there will be anyway back until at least mid, maybe even late January Ian, but by there there should be a lot of very cold air bottled up across the Arctic and a decent strat warning should then see it

flood south and give us a very decent Feb. I think most of the realists on here have accepted there is unlikely to be any quick or easy root to proper cold this side of the New Year, this is looking a very different Winter

altogether to the last couple, but that's not to say we won't see some decent Pm shots even through Dec as the pattern occasionally amplifies enough.

Final ECM chart tonight

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

Much more settled

That's not much more settled Gavin, the LP close to Cape Farewell would be heading SE towards us if ECM went to T+264hrs.

Edited November 26, 2011 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

Just look at JMA for next Saturday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1681.gif

Those living on the Northern Isles would take a right battering if it doesn't downgrade which it hopefully will do.

[January Snowstorm]

Worth keeping in mind that 2 years ago was quite mild until Christmas week and only then turned very cold.

My own opinion is that we could get a very similar Winter to then!

ECM looking very unsettled and more often than not cool

[shedhead]

Just look at JMA for next Saturday

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rjma1681.gif

Those living on the Northern Isles would take a right battering if it doesn't downgrade which it hopefully will do.

I don't want to keep picking on what you post Gavin, but the area of most concern IF that chart were to verify would be the Forth-Clyde valley and locations to the east of high ground across C & S Scotland and N England.

Edited November 26, 2011 by shedhead

[Harsh Climate]

Nao and AO simply aweful. Around this time last year the AO plunged to -6 and the NAO to -3.

[kumquat]

To the east of high ground????

[mountain shadow]

Final ECM chart tonight

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

Much more settled

Only transient surely, the next LP winding up to the north west

[Liam J]

Just look at JMA for next Saturday

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rjma1681.gif

Those living on the Northern Isles would take a right battering if it doesn't downgrade which it hopefully will do.

If that chart verified and it's a big IF The strongest winds would be over N & Central Scotland, N Ireland and N England, I'm not sure how you thought the Northern Isles would come off worse with the strongest winds.

[Chris D]

Nao and AO simply aweful. Around this time last year the AO plunged to -6 and the NAO to -3.

It is impossible to forecast the NAO or AO very far advance since they too are models, and I hope you're not expecting snowmageddon again because otherwise you will be disappointed. Although prolonged or very cold weather is quite a way off yet, we are still going to get pretty exciting weather (or at least more exciting than what we have had for ages, dullness) in the next week or so I think, especially looking at tonight's models (especially the ECM). Don't get me wrong I love cold weather, but patience is a virtue.

Edited November 26, 2011 by chris93

[Ruzzi]

The best example of a branch of the PV sinking over the UK was just before Xmas last year. But you need high pressure at high latitude in order to displace this air to the mid-latitudes i.e the UK. As we saw last year, it can lead to blizzards and very cold conditions.

A windy and showery ECM, chilly at times for the North.

Thanks alot Ian. I hate to be a nuisance, but is there any chance you could post the chart as I can't seem to find it?? And also you say that a branch of the PV sunk south over the UK, Does that mean that the whole PV cannot transfer over the UK? Sorry for the questions, I'm just intrigued.

[Harsh Climate]

It is impossible to forecast the NAO or AO very far advance since they too are models, and I hope you're not expecting snowmageddon again because otherwise you will be disappointed. Although prolonged or very cold weather is quite a way off yet, we are still going to get pretty exciting weather (or at least more exciting than what we have had for ages, dullness) in the next week or so I think, especially looking at tonight's models (especially the ECM). Don't get me wrong I love cold weather, but patience is a virtue.

Yes I do expect snowmagedon to happen again, it's a certainty!

But whether it happens this winter or not for 7/8 that is the question!

Indeed patience is what's needed here, but it would be nice to get some FI candy just to keep things more interesting

Edited November 26, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[ribster]

Fairly similar

1953 storm surge flood in England and Holland.

Looks different enough to me, especially the tight packing of the isobars on the 53 chart. It also coincided with a high spring tide, which thankfully isn't due on that date. I would think unlikely to verify as it is anyway.

[nodrog]

Yes! Storms not snow. Nice ECM!

[Richie V]

The current outputs from all models (reliable and formula 1) are nothing short of pure porn for me, Looking like a very stormy outlook indeed. Whatever floats, or in the case of recent outputs sinks your boat I suppose... All to their own!

[Frosty.]

I noticed a small circle of 528dam air crossing southern areas later next week on the gfs 12z, it then turns into a little heart shape as it crosses into mainland europe, the gfs 12z has some very cold air pushing down across the uk further into FI and the jet is angled favourably for cold snaps and the ecm looks cool and unsettled next week with wintry ppn on northern hills, a few milder days on the charts but mostly cool or cold zonal.

[Chris D]

At very short range, the far northern tip of Scotland and Orkney looks to be in for a right battering tonight. NAE suggests sustained wind speeds of 60-70mph, with gusts to 80-90mph seeming possible around the early hours? Looks quite nasty.

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Edited November 26, 2011 by chris93

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here's my take on the 12zs tonight.

GFS looks distinctly changeable in the 1-5 day time frame with Low pressure crossing east to the north of Scotland currently with a weakening cold front crossing SE overnight with decreasing amounts of rain as it goes. A ridge follows tomorrow and Monday with a dry and less windy spell before an active cold front crosses East bringing wind and rain through Britain on Tuesday. After a lull on Wednesday the door opens to some potentially stormy weather for the NW while the rest of the UK shares in some periods of wind and rain later next week. In the longer term details will change but it seems that GFS is set on continuing some volatile weather with rain and gales at times, especially in the NW. Temperatures will vary between near normal to somewhat below in the showery interludes and in the North.

The GFS Ensembles indicate most members going for a sine wave style pattern indicating a mobile Atlantic set up with wind and rain in abundance, especially in the North while temperatures are never shown to be desparately low.

UKMO also shows increasingly disturbed conditions as we move through next week with rain, showers and gales from the middle of the week for all. In the meantime a couple of dryish days ahead as a passing ridge of high pressure moves East ahead of an active cold front on Tuesday brings a squally band of potentially heavy rain East through the day introducing us into the disturbed weather late next week.

ECM tonight follows in similar mode to UKMO though is rather quicker in bringing the deeper unsettled conditions in. In fact from Tuesday on the NW could experience some potentially damaging winds at times later next week as successive storm systems pass. Other areas too aren't immune eithar with all areas seeing heavy rain and showers, wintry on hills with hail and thunder in places too. Things temper slightly at the end of the run but likely to deteriorate again soon after day 10.

In Summary there is potential at worst for some damging winds in the next 7 to 14 days and at best all areas are going to see some windy and wet conditions, even in the areas that most need it. Temperature wise although nothing unseasonably cold is on offer with the wind and rain it will feel much colder than of late with showers falling as sleet and snow on hills with hail and thunder possibly in the mix too. In other words a typically disturbed and potentially stormy period to come for most but not that unusual for early December.

Edited November 26, 2011 by Gibby

[Frosty.]

but at the end of the day, it's nothing unusual and it would be treated as normal if it wasn't for the very warm and mainly dry autumn this year. It looks like there is some potential for an arctic blast or two during the next few weeks if the jet angles nw/se as shown on the gfs 12z op run.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Here you go :

http://www.wetterzen...00120101218.gif

A jawdropper of a chart.

An absolute lovely chart that. What strikes me is the sheer amount of greens and yellows around, compared with the blues/purples of recent days.

[SxK]

It is impossible to forecast the NAO or AO very far advance since they too are models, and I hope you're not expecting snowmageddon again because otherwise you will be disappointed. Although prolonged or very cold weather is quite a way off yet, we are still going to get pretty exciting weather (or at least more exciting than what we have had for ages, dullness) in the next week or so I think, especially looking at tonight's models (especially the ECM). Don't get me wrong I love cold weather, but patience is a virtue.

I think it is also worth noting that just a few days ago NAO was forecasted to go negative. Models are struggling at the moment.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Here you go :

http://www.wetterzen...00120101218.gif

A jawdropper of a chart.

What a night that was....!

Thought that was this years till I saw the date.

[phil nw.]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif Edited November 26, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Strider]

I think it is also worth noting that just a few days ago NAO was forecasted to go negative. Models are struggling at the moment.

Yes, and also for a time early in the month as well.

People shouldn't take the NAO and AO forecasts as gospel, they have their own FI just like the other charts

[Jason T]

Here you go :

http://www.wetterzen...00120101218.gif

A jawdropper of a chart.

That very much is, I remeber that soooo well my 40th birthday. God did it snow. Meto issued a RED warning took me hours to get home from work. As for the current output HMMMMMMM.