Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

[shedhead]

GFS and ECM 00Z are as you were, cool zonality for the +348/+240 hrs. Not much change here, just checked all of the teleconnections and the outlook is bleak for cold and snow. Are we really going to have to wait til late December/early January for a pattern change?

Dan

Not even sure we're looking at cool zonality Dan, cooler zonality pretty much sums it up for me, but then again with highs of 13-14c and low of 11-12c across much of England yesterday there is only one way for temps to head as we move into December. Longer term I think you are right overall, but late Dec/early Jan might be a tad optimistic if a major change to a cold, blocked set up is what you are after, however unlike the pattern across the next 2-3 weeks at least that one has potential to change for the better - or worst

[nick sussex]

As far as I'm concerned, this coming week marks a pattern change. The enduring euro high slopes off allowing atlantic depressions to have more influence further south at last. It's been generally settled down south for what feels like weeks with occasional spotty rain and clouds.

A pattern change doesn't have to be a sudden and dramatic shift to the freezer!

Whilst I agree with your last sentence I suspect most people in here won't be happy with a pattern change that still doesn't deliver low level snow widely across the UK.

For me a proper pattern change would be one that saw the PV weaken and split, whilst those low heights remain to the north its very difficult to see a way the UK can get extended cold and low level snow.

Of course a Euro high far enough north can bring some inversion cold, we've seen some quite low temps in the past from that but if you have that with a strong jet to the north it will still eventually sink.

I think at the moment its a case of trying to make the best of what are really mediocre teleconnections.

If the pattern upstream can remain reasonably amplified then theres a small chance of a northerly toppler but apart from that the absolute best would IMO be some briefish PM incursions.

[SLEETY]

GFS and ECM 00Z are as you were, cool zonality for the +348/+240 hrs. Not much change here, just checked all of the teleconnections and the outlook is bleak for cold and snow. Are we really going to have to wait til late December/early January for a pattern change?

Dan

Outlook bleak for cold and snow??

For lowland areas maybe.The scottish ski industry must be jumping for joy as the season should be in full flow in a week or so time.

Pattern has changed already with the Euro trash high moving away and a windy and unsettled period of weather coming.

Anyway its rare to get much snow at low levels in December in this country.Last December was a once in a lifetime event.Your just going to have to be patient grasshopper :lol:

Edited November 27, 2011 by SLEETY

[shedhead]

If you want to be pedantic then yes, the introduction of zonality represents a pattern change, but going from exceptionally mild to average to mild it's unlikely to engender much interest - at least not amongst the coldies that make up 90% of this forum.

Edited November 27, 2011 by shedhead

[WhiteFox]

If you want to be pedantic then yes, the introduction of zonality represents a pattern change, but going from exceptionally mild to average to mild it's unlikely to engender much interest - at least not amongst the coldies that make up 90% of this forum.

Not the point though is it? and neither is it pedantic! It is a pattern change, as BFTP rightly keeps pointing out. It's a little much to expect a jump from widely above average temps to low lying snow for long periods. Personally, I'm looking forward with relish to a proper stormy period as shown by the models. I do enjoy cold ad well, but enjoy all sorts of weather so long as it keeps changing.

[Frosty.]

The latest models show a milder interlude tomorrow into tuesday and becoming wet and windy with strong to gale force sw'ly winds but then a change midweek, this will be felt most across the north with a blast of cold westerly winds but also turning cooler further south with a pool of sub 528 dam air crossing southern areas, it looks like it will become stormy at times and with colder temps there could be a lot of hill snow in the coming week from around wednesday although the 528 dam line retreats north of the uk for a time, there is then the risk of an arctic blast in around a weeks time and the gfs and ecm 00z both show a cold blast just outside the reliable timeframe, maybe the first really cold spell is not far away.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Looks like good agreement tonight between ECM,GFS for next weekends cold snap.

Models were in agreement for a cold influx 10 days ago albeit progged for the 1st December - well happy with the output with some cold incursions showing - cant see what all the doom and gloom is about - we must remember last year was exceptional - erm and the one before that....

Meto has Cumbria freezing level at 700m with snow showers down to 500m for next week

[Frosty.]

GFS and ECM 00Z are as you were, cool zonality for the +348/+240 hrs. Not much change here, just checked all of the teleconnections and the outlook is bleak for cold and snow. Are we really going to have to wait til late December/early January for a pattern change? Dan

cool zonal? there will be blizzards for the uk in the next 7-10 days if the gfs and ecm 00z verify.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If you want to be pedantic then yes, the introduction of zonality represents a pattern change, but going from exceptionally mild to average to mild it's unlikely to engender much interest - at least not amongst the coldies that make up 90% of this forum.

Its a pattern change, pure and simple its not being pedantic is it, really?.

Back to models, I can't see ECM t192 varifying....well lets hope not that's a nasty storm.

BFTP

Edited November 27, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

Its a pattern change, pure and simple its not being pedantic is it, really?. Back to models, I can't see ECM t192 varifying....well lets hope not that's a nasty storm. BFTP

Hi Blast, I think the models this morning are looking more promising for a really cold blast in the next 7-10 days, judging by the angle of the jet with lows attacking from the northwest..do you agree? and i'm a bit surprised by some of the negative comments given how excellent FI is looking for cold and snow.

[shedhead]

cool zonal? there will be blizzards for the uk in the next 7-10 days if the gfs and ecm 00z verify.

Where? With respect PL that claim is well OTT in my opinion, even if the best possible amplitude occurred. By and large both GFS and ECM suggest any snow will be reserved for ground where sheep outnumber people by 1000-1 even now, but once the inevitable short waves get picked up and as ever the whole pattern gets shunted a little farther east it's look even less likely. I think feet need to be kept on the ground here, yes cooler, yes very much more unsettled generally, but blizzards???

[Aaron]

Outlook bleak for cold and snow??

For lowland areas maybe.The scottish ski industry must be jumping for joy as the season should be in full flow in a week or so time.

Pattern has changed already with the Euro trash high moving away and a windy and unsettled period of weather coming.

Anyway its rare to get much snow at low levels in December in this country.Last December was a once in a lifetime event.Your just going to have to be patient grasshopper :lol:

Absolutely false.

[Frosty.]

Where? With respect PL that claim is well OTT in my opinion, even if the best possible amplitude occurred. By and large both GFS and ECM suggest any snow will be reserved for ground where sheep outnumber people by 1000-1 even now, but once the inevitable short waves get picked up and as ever the whole pattern gets shunted a little farther east it's look even less likely. I think feet need to be kept on the ground here, yes cooler, yes very much more unsettled generally, but blizzards???

Am I alone in seeing an arctic blast on the gfs and ecm 00z? did i dream it, anyone would think we were going back to the pattern we have endured for the last 8 weeks..it's showing a cold spell although not checked the 6z yet!

Edited November 27, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Robbie Garrett]

Greenland high!!

[nick sussex]

cool zonal? there will be blizzards for the uk in the next 7-10 days if the gfs and ecm 00z verify.

Lol! What on the top of Ben Nevis!

Thats a bit like me saying here in the Pyrenees there will be blizzards above 1,500m, you don't need anything particularly cold for snow at higher elevations.

I do admire your glass half full perspective, maybe I've just become a misery!

As I mentioned earlier there is a small chance of a northerly toppler and that could give some snow a little further south before the jet rolls over the top and sinks it.

It does however look good for the Scottish ski resorts, and a little better for European ski areas but until I see snow forecast within 96hrs then I'm loathe to dust off the skis!

[bluearmy]

Absolutely false.

its not false for most of southern britain. take away the past few winters and you'll struggle to find too many significant snow events for southern britain in december over the past few decades. even in the north, away from high ground, december didnt generally delivery the white stuff. scotland is not included in this discussion. as far as the nwp is concerned, shame that the north pacific ridging cant really break through into the arctic like it did a few years back at this juncture. naefs is not too consistent in deep fi at the moment. however, an averaging out of its recent offerings leaves you looking at GP's recent analogue for december with strong ridging to our south stretching ne well into russia. traditional winter of athenian snow scenes on the way ???

[Iceaxecrampon]

Am I alone in seeing an arctic blast on the gfs and ecm 00z? did i dream it, anyone would think we were going back to the pattern we have endured for the last 8 weeks..it's showing a cold spell although not checked the 6z yet!

No - your not alone - reasonably confident of an arctic blast maybe not seen down to sea level as yet.

[Frosty.]

Lol! What on the top of Ben Nevis! Thats a bit like me saying here in the Pyrenees there will be blizzards above 1,500m, you don't need anything particularly cold for snow at higher elevations. I do admire your glass half full perspective, maybe I've just become a misery! As I mentioned earlier there is a small chance of a northerly toppler and that could give some snow a little further south before the jet rolls over the top and sinks it. It does however look good for the Scottish ski resorts, and a little better for European ski areas but until I see snow forecast within 96hrs then I'm loathe to dust off the skis!

come on nick, the models are showing a proper cold blast in the not too distant future, the north of the uk will be having wintry showers from midweek with hill snow and then potentially a much colder blast the following week..fair point about the 96 hours, it's all outside that range but the models are and have been showing a stronger cold spell from the north and it really could happen.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

A generally unsettled pattern now awaits especially for those in the north and west with a mixture of hail sleet and wet snow possible for elevated places maybe 300m plus.

For the vast majority i expect it will feel much colder in the wind but alas it will be cold rain that most of us experience.#

The pattern is changing but situation at high latitudes remains desperate for coldies,i think most of us would like to see a Scandy high or Greenland high but thats a pipe dream at the moment and all things considered until see some major changes up over the pole its a going to be a waiting game,a long wait too by the looks of things.

[bluearmy]

Greenland high!!

sorry robbie - its a surface cold high over the greenland plateau. a proper greeny high needs to have greens/yellows over greenland rather than blues (and you need to look at the heights rather than the uppers to see this).

[AWD]

Some people need to lower their expectations of what a UK winter will provide!

There isn't going to be a Siberian freeze for the whole 3 months of winter year after year after year! Just enjoy whatever the British weather throws at us, and be patient to get your preferred weather type! We will see snowmageddon again one day, just don't know when!

Anyway, things look far more active and interesting than they have done for a long while now! Not much difference in the reliable between the GFS and ECM this morning!

Both show potential for widespread gales and possible damaging winds in the north! Everywhere should see some rain, useful rain at that in the south and east! Temps will be around average for early December! Some days a little below average, which will become cold enough for snow on high ground in the north, and some days will be a little above average! Brighter interludes are expected between depressions, where HP temporarily ridges in!

A definate pattern change shortly commencing to what we have had for most of Autumn! A pattern change to more normal and average early winter conditions!

Something for most people in today's output, except those wanting severe cold! However, winter is a 3 month season, so your time may come in the new year! In the meantime, enjoy the storms!

[Frosty.]

No - your not alone - reasonably confident of an arctic blast maybe not seen down to sea level as yet.

yes it's looking a lot more promising for cold fans for the first time this autumn, hope the models stick to the current trend of repeated polar maritime incursions and then a blast from the north pole.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

yes it's looking a lot more promising for cold fans for the first time this autumn, hope the models stick to the current trend of repeated polar maritime incursions and then a blast from the north pole.

I doubt very much there is going to be any blast from the north pole for the next 2 weeks at the very least Frosty you need high pressure over Greenland for that and its not even a jot on the horizon.

[rob48]

As far as I'm concerned, this coming week marks a pattern change. The enduring euro high slopes off allowing atlantic depressions to have more influence further south at last. It's been generally settled down south for what feels like weeks with occasional spotty rain and clouds.

A pattern change doesn't have to be a sudden and dramatic shift to the freezer!

Good post.

Nice to see a bit of perspective on the thread.

[nick sussex]

come on nick, the models are showing a proper cold blast in the not too distant future, the north of the uk will be having wintry showers from midweek with hill snow and then potentially a much colder blast the following week..fair point about the 96 hours, it's all outside that range but the models are and have been showing a stronger cold spell from the north and it really could happen.

Frosty I'm not saying theres no chance of snow just that its hard to have too much faith in the output past 144hrs because of their general bias in these situations. If you're looking for that possible northerly then look out for that troughing in the eastern USA, it makes no difference what the outputs show for Europe if you don't get an amplification of the troughing there you won't get a temporary ridge developing over Greenland and won't get the necessary downstream amplification in Europe to pull a polar nw/n flow down.