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Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

kold weather

By kold weather
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Grimsby Snow Lover Contributor

Grimsby Snow Lover

Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
Posted

This is a huge area of Low pressure. You can really see how the jet is affecting our weather at the moment.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111126/12/336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111126/12/336/hgt300.png

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weathe20 Newbie

weathe20

Posted
  • Location: Yatton
  • Location: Yatton
Posted (edited)

Don't bother looking at 12z gfs if you are after cold and snow its another dud run with a very intense PV setting up just where we don't want it.

Still waiting for a frost here,ridiculous.

Looks like normal UK winter pattern to me. The odd colder interlude with PM air. Not sure why everyone is so down beat. Remember, the reason why we dont get full on cold is due to the Gulf stream and Jet stream. Why do we just expect severe cold? We never usually get any expect for the last couple of winters, and that cold was only a spell of weeks, not a period of months.

Edited by weathe20
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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett Community Regular

Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Posted
Posted · Hidden by Paul, November 26, 2011 - Nowt to do with the models.
Hidden by Paul, November 26, 2011 - Nowt to do with the models.

Looks like normal UK winter pattern to me. The odd colder interlude with PM air. Not sure why everyone is so down beat. Remember, the reason why we dont get full on cold is due to the Gulf stream and Jet stream. Why do we just expect severe cold? We never usually get any expect for the last couple of winters, and that cold has only been a spell, not a period of months.

I think the fact that i have not registered even a frost and dont look like doing so for quite a while yet is starting to bug me.

oh and the extended outlook looks woeful rounds off a woeful autumn.

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

This is a huge area of Low pressure. You can really see how the jet is affecting our weather at the moment.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../336/hgt300.png

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the polar vortex?

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Grimsby Snow Lover Contributor

Grimsby Snow Lover

Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
Posted

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the polar vortex?

Could well be, I have limited knowledge of the Polar vortex BT so I might have read the chart incorrectly, sorry and thanks for the pointer

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

This is a huge area of Low pressure. You can really see how the jet is affecting our weather at the moment.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...336/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../336/hgt300.png

Maybe we should re-locate to the east coast of Greenland. They'll be battered by blizzards if that chart came off.

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scotty_boy_winter Newbie

scotty_boy_winter

Posted
Posted · Hidden by Paul, November 26, 2011 - Waaaayyyy off topic
Hidden by Paul, November 26, 2011 - Waaaayyyy off topic

I can't give up his name, It would be unfair of me to do that. I'm sure your true to your word John but I dont know you well enough to give out his information. He does know you however

I would be grateful if, via a pm, you could give me the name of that forecaster-I will keep the information confidential-please

thanks

John

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Argyllcraig Rookie

Argyllcraig

Posted
  • Location: Breasclete, Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Loving the vaiety
  • Location: Breasclete, Isle of Lewis
Posted

That PV wouldnt be too bad if we can get some good polar maritime flow from it. (Im thinking in a Scottish Skiing sense)

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted · Hidden by Paul, November 26, 2011 - Waaaayyyy off topic
Hidden by Paul, November 26, 2011 - Waaaayyyy off topic

I can't give up his name, It would be unfair of me to do that. I'm sure your true to your word John but I dont know you well enough to give out his information. He does know you however

he's not Batman is he?....

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

models look consistant with the meto update in the sense it will be colder up north at times and more average and normal further south, there should be a lot more rain in the drought stricken south than this week and a lot more snow on the hills of scotland, especially further north.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

ECM on its way out low pressure continues for a good part of next week but the winds look like easing by Wednesday. Before we get this on Friday

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Edited by Gavin D
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Ruzzi Experienced

Ruzzi

Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
Posted (edited)

Sorry this is off topic but I'm just curious. It may seem like a really daft question but anyway . . . Has a strong polar vortex ever suddenly shifted way south over the UK leading to mega blizzards?? Sorry again if this seems ridiculous.

Edited by ruzzi (snowboy)
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wolvesfan Apprentice

wolvesfan

Posted
  • Location: Half way between Doncaster and Barnsley south yorkshire
  • Location: Half way between Doncaster and Barnsley south yorkshire
Posted

What would a stubborn PV mean to us in terms of the flow of weather coming off the Atlantic? Sorry I'm newbie at this :-/

Hi mrsmall,

If it sets up over greenland cool wet and windy propbably with a strong westerly flow.If we get high pressure to our South east propbably a milder south west flow.Not good for snow and proper cold,cheers.

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rich1 Newbie

rich1

Posted
  • Location: nr Guildford, surrey
  • Location: nr Guildford, surrey
Posted (edited)

Looks wild and wooly on the ECM tonight. Good for storm enthusiasts

More interesting than a Euro high anyway. At least its weather

Edited by rich1
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