Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Good evening. Here's my take on the 12zs tonight.

GFS looks distinctly changeable in the 1-5 day time frame with Low pressure crossing east to the north of Scotland currently with a weakening cold front crossing SE overnight with decreasing amounts of rain as it goes. A ridge follows tomorrow and Monday with a dry and less windy spell before an active cold front crosses East bringing wind and rain through Britain on Tuesday. After a lull on Wednesday the door opens to some potentially stormy weather for the NW while the rest of the UK shares in some periods of wind and rain later next week. In the longer term details will change but it seems that GFS is set on continuing some volatile weather with rain and gales at times, especially in the NW. Temperatures will vary between near normal to somewhat below in the showery interludes and in the North.

The GFS Ensembles indicate most members going for a sine wave style pattern indicating a mobile Atlantic set up with wind and rain in abundance, especially in the North while temperatures are never shown to be desparately low.

UKMO also shows increasingly disturbed conditions as we move through next week with rain, showers and gales from the middle of the week for all. In the meantime a couple of dryish days ahead as a passing ridge of high pressure moves East ahead of an active cold front on Tuesday brings a squally band of potentially heavy rain East through the day introducing us into the disturbed weather late next week.

ECM tonight follows in similar mode to UKMO though is rather quicker in bringing the deeper unsettled conditions in. In fact from Tuesday on the NW could experience some potentially damaging winds at times later next week as successive storm systems pass. Other areas too aren't immune eithar with all areas seeing heavy rain and showers, wintry on hills with hail and thunder in places too. Things temper slightly at the end of the run but likely to deteriorate again soon after day 10.

In Summary there is potential at worst for some damging winds in the next 7 to 14 days and at best all areas are going to see some windy and wet conditions, even in the areas that most need it. Temperature wise although nothing unseasonably cold is on offer with the wind and rain it will feel much colder than of late with showers falling as sleet and snow on hills with hail and thunder possibly in the mix too. In other words a typically disturbed and potentially stormy period to come for most but not that unusual for early December.

Thanks Gibby,

Again a balanced summary.

It seems that FI is around the 128 - 144 hour mark, but any cold is a long way off

[Duane S.]

Here you go :

http://www.wetterzen...00120101218.gif

A jawdropper of a chart.

Not sure we are going to see a chart like that for a long time. Only a year ago but I'd forgotten just how extrodinary it was. Chalk and cheese.

Edited November 26, 2011 by s4lancia

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi C

So basically the Zamg got it wrong a few weeks ago when forecasting a pattern change in late November? I assume by following the 32 day ECM, or do they run their own model?

No Shed basically we are in a pattern change with cooldown on cue , although it may not be what Zamg projected. The pattern is currently looking at bringing in much cooler conditions than most who are painting a dire picture for winter had thought would happen? Lets see how Dec progresses....please....winter hasn't even begun.

BFTP

Very Stormy next weekend possibly

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

Yes last few days I've been pointing out 2-4 Dec as a window of where an impact storm may occur....one to watch closely and always more fun to look for the eventful weather, and at last the LImpet Euro HP is a gonna....for now.

BFTP

Edited November 26, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mark Neal.]

2-4th December as BFTP has now pointed out, is a window in which a storm could occur, strong winds and unstable air. Anyway the models still show no signs of a cold snap, the only chance is a quick northerly toppler or PM North westerly. Onwards and Upwards, i think as December progresses we will see more chances of snow forming over the northern high ground. I think towards the new year is when the snow and cold will develop... to conclude the 2nd half of winter i think can't get any worse for us in my opinion. So as netweather have said in there winter forecast it shall be a 'Winter Of Two Halves', the latter will hopefully give joy and happiness to most of us

Edited November 26, 2011 by Mark Neal Ballooning

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Frankly I don't think there will be anyway back until at least mid, maybe even late January Ian, but by there there should be a lot of very cold air bottled up across the Arctic and a decent strat warning should then see it

flood south and give us a very decent Feb.  I think most of the realists on here have accepted there is unlikely to be any quick or easy root to proper cold this side of the New Year, this is looking a very different Winter

altogether to the last couple, but that's not to say we won't see some decent Pm shots even through Dec as the pattern occasionally amplifies enough.

That's not much more settled Gavin, the LP close to Cape Farewell would be heading SE towards us if ECM went to T+264hrs.

And most of you realists :p thought we'd still be getting stuck under this Euro HP with southerlies?? :lol:

BFTP

Edited November 26, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Great Plum]

Forgive me, but what does Zamg mean?

[carinthian]

Forgive me, but what does Zamg mean?

Hi Great Plum,

ZamG is a independant weather service operator in Austria.. They also offer a subsciption weather service.

C

[kold weather]

Whilst obviously not as good as last year, the charts are not too bad for the moment considering how awful the upper pattern actually has become in the past month or so. I could draw many worse charts than the models output tonight.

[MeteoF]

It's the main Austrian weather service

[Snowstorm1]

Interesting 18z at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= some wintry potential here surely?

[Backtrack]

Interesting 18z at http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess= some wintry potential here surely?

I think you're really clutching at straws here mate. I don't see anything away from high ground.

Wait until the end of the run, then you'll probably see a decent toppler in FI, but it's not gonna verify.

We're running out of straws to clutch at, and it's going to be a while yet until we get any low lying snow.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

18z looks a bit better i would imagine with 528 DAM anywhere north and west with say 300m could see some wintry stuff next wknd,taking into the account the sub tropical irish sea maybe 350m.

As the weekend progresses it gets colder so a lot of the North and NI and Scotland could see wintry showers in a strong NW wind.

Best run this autumn the 18z today imo

Edited November 26, 2011 by happy days

[Liam J]

Pretty stormy 18z run so far, a small but potent storm around 96hrs which would bring a core of damaging winds across Northern England, the detail will no doubt change from run to run but the potential risk for wind storms to develop this week is quite high.

[weathe20]

Slight northerly topler in FI and thats all to report. Typical UK winter charts.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Slight northerly topler in FI and thats all to report. Typical UK winter charts.

No! Those in the NW and NI and scotland will be very interested in 18z because it would produce the first frost and snow of the season.

Its a great run and id take it now.

:rofl:

ps those in the south its not any good for snow but like i said the other day its every man for himself at the moment.

[weathe20]

Can someone explain what this is showing in FI? Newbie here. Thanks

[weatherguy]

Reasonably happy with the 18z really, no sign of sustained cold but it gives us a nice little cold shot for much of the UK...Probably not much potential snow wise, but will feel a little more wintry at least than what we've been used to from this damn euro high

[Cheshire Freeze]

No! Those in the NW and NI and scotland will be very interested in 18z because it would produce the first frost and snow of the season.

Its a great run and id take it now.

:rofl:

ps those in the south its not any good for snow but like i said the other day its every man for himself at the moment.

Yeah a good run in all relativity to the past few weeks. GFS goes from D ick Turpin to Robin Hood in one day.

[Backtrack]

Hmm, a nice 4 day cold spell thrown in there by the GFS from December 3rd.

First low level snow perhaps?

[kold weather]

Not too bad of a 18z GFS tonight, probably as good as we can hope wioth the polar regions as they are, a nice cool NW shot followed by the Euro high getting far enough north to actually put us under a cool high pressure.

[lorenzo]

Can someone explain what this is showing in FI? Newbie here. Thanks

Would love to help but my eyes are bleeding and I am digging out the prozac.

[weatherguy]

Not too bad of a 18z GFS tonight, probably as good as we can hope wioth the polar regions as they are, a nice cool NW shot followed by the Euro high getting far enough north to actually put us under a cool high pressure.

Indeed, what are the chances of that high moving further north and giving us an easterly? Or is that simply too much to ask for...?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Can someone explain what this is showing in FI? Newbie here. Thanks

A high that may produce coldish weather (by inversions in the south of the country), foggy where the isobars are far apart, relatively mild in Northern Ireland and Scotland is my take

[stewfox]

I think you're really clutching at straws here mate. I don't see anything away from high ground.

Wait until the end of the run, then you'll probably see a decent toppler in FI, but it's not gonna verify.

We're running out of straws to clutch at, and it's going to be a while yet until we get any low lying snow.

If you won £1m would you forever be disappointed you didn't win £2m ?

A week ago it was highs,static weather ,mild chance of barletts and 'no chance' of snow for December.

Fact its getting colder and the models are throwing up more and more cold charts in F1

Lets see what these storms 60-80mph that go through tonight do to mix things up, these storms which will of course bring more snow on the hills in the north.

[wolvesfan]

Looks like good agreement tonight between ECM,GFS for next weekends cold snap.