Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

[Gavin P]

.. I have that ridge on the analogue package..

Note the position of the mean trough there, smack bang over the UK. I suspect we will see waxing and waning of the ridge to our north east throughout December as the jet oscillates in strength. Still no indication of high latitude blocking for another month at least given the polar westerlies, and no sign of the necessary surge in tropical forcing until perhaps late December.

Meantime, the model bias in terms of forecasting a -NAO has shown up again, with the pattern looking flatter as we hit the short to medium range.

That looks like potentially a very wet December pattern! Can't speak for anybody else, but would be most welcome here...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There is with doubt a change ahead to colder conditions, 'colder' being subjective but talk of lowland snow hasn't ever come into my vocabulary as yet and that IMO is very cold not cold in UK terms.

I note re GP mentioning waxing and waning, yep this would support RJS view of December IMO and looks a decent bet. Also folks we aren't talking individual runs here now re improving pattern and the timing of change is good..

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

There is with doubt a change ahead to colder conditions, 'colder' being subjective but talk of lowland snow hasn't ever come into my vocabulary as yet and that IMO is very cold not cold in UK terms.

I note re GP mentioning waxing and waning, yep this would support RJS view of December IMO and looks a decent bet. Also folks we aren't talking individual runs here now re improving pattern and the timing of change is good..

BFTP

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to work out that we will be going to colder conditions when we have had what could be the mildest November ever, Fred!

It's akin to having an ace in Play Your Cards Right!

'Lower Lower' I hear you shout and the the next card is a King.

'I was right - it is lower !' I hear you exclaim!!

[nick sussex]

I'm rather underwhelmed!

Not much change this morning, trough near or over the UK, Euro high still refusing to realize that nobody likes it!

The GFS has the trough over the UK, the ECM looks similar to yesterday evening.

The ECM ensemble mean does show the trough a little further east and high pressure displaced a little further west but the operationals seem reluctant to go with that.

The ski resorts near me have now cancelled their opening this weekend, if the ECM verifies then there will be no skiing here or anywhere in the Alps apart from glaciers until at least the second week of December!

It's getting very close to an economic catastrophe for ski resorts especially when you consider the calamitous end to last season, if the snow doesn't arrive soon there won't be time to put a good base down before Xmas.

I really do hope it will move towards its ensemble mean and give some relief to Alpine regions, the pattern might be annoying for us but our jobs and livelihoods don't depend on the cold and snow.

[November13]

I'm rather underwhelmed!

Not much change this morning, trough near or over the UK, Euro high still refusing to realize that nobody likes it!

The GFS has the trough over the UK, the ECM looks similar to yesterday evening.

The ECM ensemble mean does show the trough a little further east and high pressure displaced a little further west but the operationals seem reluctant to go with that.

The ski resorts near me have now cancelled their opening this weekend, if the ECM verifies then there will be no skiing here or anywhere in the Alps apart from glaciers until at least the second week of December!

It's getting very close to an economic catastrophe for ski resorts especially when you consider the calamitous end to last season, if the snow doesn't arrive soon there won't be time to put a good base down before Xmas.

I really do hope it will move towards its ensemble mean and give some relief to Alpine regions, the pattern might be annoying for us but our jobs and livelihoods don't depend on the cold and snow.

Yes agreed and it's the same for Scotland. Not a drop has fallen in the mountains. However the next week looks like building something of a base hopefully!

[nick sussex]

Yes agreed and it's the same for Scotland. Not a drop has fallen in the mountains. However the next week looks like building something of a base hopefully!

The key for Scotland is that we can get the trough far enough east before it becomes slow moving, that could produce quite alot of snow for your ski resorts.

Recent seasons have been better up there which is good to see, I remember when we were in that run of mild winters where it was very tough for the resorts to survive.

[Weather-history]

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to work out that we will be going to colder conditions when we have had what could be the mildest November ever, Fred!

Not necessarily, November 1994 was followed by one of the mildest Decembers of the last 20 years. We could still have a very mild December. Infact the two mildest Decembers since 1988 were preceded by very mild to exceptionally mild Novembers.

Edited November 22, 2011 by Mr_Data

[chionomaniac]

Not necessarily, November 1994 was followed by one of the mildest Decembers of the last 20 years. We could still have a very mild December. Indeed November and December 2006 were very mild overall.

Yes we could pull out another ace , but December is still going to be colder. What is the highest ever December CET?

[Frosty.]

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to work out that we will be going to colder conditions when we have had what could be the mildest November ever, Fred! It's akin to having an ace in Play Your Cards Right! 'Lower Lower' I hear you shout and the the next card is a King. 'I was right - it is lower !' I hear you exclaim!!

BLAST is right about the general trend to colder weather and not just a few degree drop but more like a major drop compared to the ridiculous 14-16c which has been frequent this month so far.

[Weather-history]

Yes we could pull out another ace , but December is still going to be colder. What is the highest ever December CET?

8.1C in 1934 and 1974

December is normally colder in absolute terms than November but not necessarily in terms relative to its own average. The fact is very mild Decembers have been very rare compared to the other months of the last 20 years, so you could argue we are "due" one if you believe in nature balancing. That said it does look like a cooler prospect coming up if the models are right.

Edited November 22, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Glacier Point]

That looks like potentially a very wet December pattern! Can't speak for anybody else, but would be most welcome here...

Doesn't it just. However, we have had deeper upper lows this autumn and they have failed to deliver or be sustained so I will put a steer on December's forecast in that rainfall will be around average and the ridge to our NE may just be a bit more extensive and further west than shown on the analogue package. It's also a signal for average or above average temperatures.

Anyone seen the 00z NAEFS evolution this morning ?

[nick sussex]

Doesn't it just. However, we have had deeper upper lows this autumn and they have failed to deliver or be sustained so I will put a steer on December's forecast in that rainfall will be around average and the ridge to our NE may just be a bit more extensive and further west than shown on the analogue package. It's also a signal for average or above average temperatures.

Anyone seen the 00z NAEFS evolution this morning ?

Yes and it isn't pretty from a cold perspective!

Haven't we been here before recently, trough to the west high to the east, I'm sure the Alpine resorts are thrilled at that this morning!

I do hope that trough gets far enough east to deliver some snow to the ski resorts before the high builds back in.

[shedhead]

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to work out that we will be going to colder conditions when we have had what could be the mildest November ever, Fred! It's akin to having an ace in Play Your Cards Right! 'Lower Lower' I hear you shout and the the next card is a King. 'I was right - it is lower !' I hear you exclaim!!

Without wishing to sound like I'm continually 'Blast Bashing, I have to agree wholeheartedly with this. It's all relative, so colder weather going forward is as inevitable and as guaranteed as night following day, it really does go without saying. However, whilst that is undeniable, so is the fact that absolutely nothing in the current model or telecon outputs suggest we'll see any genuine cold weather, with average to mild really being the best on offer as far ahead as we can see. We don't have to like it, but unfortunately we do have to accept it - hopefully our patience will be rewarded further down the line.

Edited November 22, 2011 by shedhead

[Northern Sky]

Without wishing to sound like I'm continually 'Blast Bashing, I have to agree wholeheartedly with this. It's all relative, so colder weather going forward is as inevitable and as guaranteed as night following day, it really does go without saying. However, whilst that is undeniable, so is the fact that absolutely nothing in the current model or telecon outputs suggest we'll see any genuine cold weather, with average to mild really being the best on offer as far ahead as we can see. We don't have to like it, but unfortunately we do have to accept it - hopefully our patience will be rewarded further down the line.

No, I don't agree with this. We could have easily seen a continuation of the pattern we were in or blowtorch SW's. I know BFTP's methods don't fit in with what others think but I've followed this forum for a few years now and his success as a long range forecaster is as good as anyone elses. BFTP said that the last week of November would see a change to colder conditions and that is exactly what looks like happening.

As for the models, well they look fine to me. A return to more seasonal conditions looks certain for a while at least. It will be nice to see some wind and rain for a change!

[weathe20]

Todays models look like a normal UK winter conditions. Zonal with the odd colder interlude giving snow at high levels. Im hoping for something decent towards christmas but a green, wet and average christmas could be on the cards if we get locked in to this zonal stuff.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Wet and Windy for most over the weekend on the GFS 06z. Very windy potentially in Scotland with damaging gusts. As seems the norm at the moment the largest quantities of the rain will be in North and West. A weekend of interesting weather to look forward to. Will feel cold in most places given the strength of the wind.

[Teesdale]

Not here it wouldn't, many parts of the North and West are already saturated.

Really?The river levels are low for time of year in NW England,due to the low rainfall over last 4/5 weeks.

Wet across W upland regions as you would expect in such a set up, but totals not that high further East in areas that need the rain. At least this will provide some dynamic weather thats been missing for so long.

Edited November 22, 2011 by Teesdale

[MP-R]

This may sound a bit amateur but I've seen some pattern similarities this year to last year, just running a month behind. October last year began and ended very unsettled with a largely blocked middle such as this month. November began on a stormy note and gradually got colder as the month went on. The models show a similar start to December with cyclonic conditions from the Atlantic and a general movement southwards of lows bringing colder air with them. I wouldn't put it past the models to show some more favourable synoptics for say mid-month onwards (December). However, this is by no means to say that a repeat of last year is afoot.

As for now. I'm looking forward to some more mobile conditions as the southeast has been incredibly boring the last few weeks. After today, sunnier skies over the southern half and more unsettled further north, rain and wind on Friday followed by a cooler weekend with showers becoming confined to the north once again as high pressure tries to nudge in from the south.

[shedhead]

No, I don't agree with this. We could have easily seen a continuation of the pattern we were in or blowtorch SW's. I know BFTP's methods don't fit in with what others think but I've followed this forum for a few years now and his success as a long range forecaster is as good as anyone elses. BFTP said that the last week of November would see a change to colder conditions and that is exactly what looks like happening.

As for the models, well they look fine to me. A return to more seasonal conditions looks certain for a while at least. It will be nice to see some wind and rain for a change!

I'll have a go then... If the first 3 weeks of June 2020 are close to record breakingly hot, the last week will be cooler.

[Paul]

Models, models, models...... Please

[Isolated Frost]

Indeed the 06z is more progressive, and has a less cold fi, but it's consistent in a jet tracking into S Britain, after the hi-res says just north of Scotland. Less appealing, but the trend I think i've found is that the 00z and 12z are usually cooler than the 06z and 18z...

[nick sussex]

A flat jet, strong Euro high and low heights to the north, as far removed from cold as you could possibly find.

It looks like the worst start to the new skiing season for decades to top off the worst end to the previous season since records began.

The problem with these set ups is even though the FI may suggest some PM air getting south, this is unlikely to verify, its a model bias with nearer term output shunting the jet north and developing shortwaves near Iceland.

Either some amplification appears or I fear alot of doom and gloom in here over the next few weeks.

[ITSY]

Models more interesting definitely but hardly the cold loving feast we had last year! Aside from mountainous snowfall, GFS Fi on the 06Z shows snowfall for the north midlands late on, just proves that every run is different and the patterns are constantly changing. And if last couple of days are to go by then I'd say that it's the 06 and 18Z that have been cooler!'

[Frosty.]

Indeed the 06z is more progressive, and has a less cold fi, but it's consistent in a jet tracking into S Britain, after the hi-res says just north of Scotland. Less appealing, but the trend I think i've found is that the 00z and 12z are usually cooler than the 06z and 18z...

At least the worst case scenario is for the jet to track across southern britain so there will be welcome rain for the drought hit areas with half empty reservoirs and colder incursions to at least flirt with the far north of britain, the models are still getting to grips with a more intense weather pattern following the sluggish blocked spell which seemed to go on forever, there will continue to be runs showing colder zoneality.

[SP1986]

Not much change today, if we ignore FI (which we ideally should), the pattern is one of a mild start then reverted to average later on, snow perhaps over the Scottish hills (as you would expect), but in most places, plenty of rain, limited frost, and temperatures trending to average. I notice the high pressure over Canada loses a little vigour compared to a few days ago, this however isn't surprising, because some of those runs were a little fanciful, today (excluding FI), represents a realistic outlook given the signals.