Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

[Paul_1978]

A flat jet, strong Euro high and low heights to the north, as far removed from cold as you could possibly find.

It looks like the worst start to the new skiing season for decades to top off the worst end to the previous season since records began.

The problem with these set ups is even though the FI may suggest some PM air getting south, this is unlikely to verify, its a model bias with nearer term output shunting the jet north and developing shortwaves near Iceland.

Either some amplification appears or I fear alot of doom and gloom in here over the next few weeks.

Hi Nick, I've seen you mention the word "amplification" a few times recently. Can you explain what that is and how it could affect the weather in favour of colder conditions? Many thanks!

[legritter]

well it looks like some possible action coming our way from this weekend onwards , all leave cancelled , batton down the hatches , sandbags out , prozack and drinks at the ready , at least the charts have livened up . our way to winter could come with a more mobile set up . but dont forget gang it all could go pear shape , HEARS HOPING cheers legritter

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Without wishing to sound like I'm continually 'Blast Bashing, I have to agree wholeheartedly with this. It's all relative, so colder weather going forward is as inevitable and as guaranteed as night following day, it really does go without saying. However, whilst that is undeniable, so is the fact that absolutely nothing in the current model or telecon outputs suggest we'll see any genuine cold weather, with average to mild really being the best on offer as far ahead as we can see. We don't have to like it, but unfortunately we do have to accept it - hopefully our patience will be rewarded further down the line.

Average to mild being the best on offer?!, what days are you cherry picking next 3-4 days? Models are trending to lower temps and lets stop this nonsense that its bound to get colder as we go into Dec..... Pattern change seems to be grating on some. Lets enjoy the up and down Dec shall we?

And don't worry about thinking you are Blast Bashing....take a lot more than that :smilz38:

Just like to add that some are beginning to think that serious cold spells of recent winters are 'normal' ...well that's what it seems.

BFTP

Edited November 22, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick, I've seen you mention the word "amplification" a few times recently. Can you explain what that is and how it could affect the weather in favour of colder conditions? Many thanks!

Its also called a meridional flow, basically at the moment we've got cold air trapped to the north, the only way you can tap into that is for the jet stream to become amplified.

http://www.cbc.ca/nl...20Pattern-1.JPG

Thats the best image I could find at short notice, if you look there and project that onto the northern Hemisphere, if you get the amplification in the right place then you can tap into the colder air to the north, at the moment the NH pattern is flat with swathes of high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north.

The first place to look for a possible change is in the east Pacific/west coast of the USA , you need to see the upstream pattern in the USA amplify, however you can stll be stuck in mild conditions even with an amplified flow if you're on the wrong side of the trough.

Hope that helps.

Edited November 22, 2011 by nick sussex

[shedhead]

Models more interesting definitely but hardly the cold loving feast we had last year! Aside from mountainous snowfall, GFS Fi on the 06Z shows snowfall for the north midlands late on, just proves that every run is different and the patterns are constantly changing. And if last couple of days are to go by then I'd say that it's the 06 and 18Z that have been cooler!'

Yes, every run is different, but No, the patterns are not constantly changing... that is the problem. Until we see a pattern change upstream, all we can expect going forward into Winter is variations on the general theme that we've witnessed for several weeks.

Average to mild being the best on offer?!, what days are you cherry picking next 3-4 days? Models are trending to lower temps and lets stop this nonsense that its bound to get colder as we go into Dec..... Pattern change seems to be grating on some. Lets enjoy the up and down Dec shall we?

And don't worry about thinking you are Blast Bashing....take a lot more than that :smilz38:

BFTP

Yes, I can see nothing in the current outputs to suggest anything other than average to mild for the next fortnight at the very least. Judging by your response, you must be expecting temps to be average to below, correct??

Edited November 22, 2011 by shedhead

[shedhead]

Hi Nick, I've seen you mention the word "amplification" a few times recently. Can you explain what that is and how it could affect the weather in favour of colder conditions? Many thanks!

Nick has answered above Paul.

[tinybill]

all i say looking at the models in to f1 they seem to be heading to the colder section in early december now

[Osbourne One-Nil]

If people have specific questions of other contributors, it might be best to ask via PM? This thread is for everyone, and shouldn't focus on the few.

[Eskimo]

Chop and change, that's all we are seeing, for all cold lovers, don't be disheartened!

[Paul_1978]

Nick has answered above Paul.

Oops yes sorry, mobile phone problems! And thanks Nick, will read up on that link later. Many thanks.

[Eskimo]

all i say looking at the models in to f1 they seem to be heading to the colder section in early december now

I'm guessing the dashed lines means something wintry?

[phil nw.]

A flat jet, strong Euro high and low heights to the north, as far removed from cold as you could possibly find.

It looks like the worst start to the new skiing season for decades to top off the worst end to the previous season since records began.

The problem with these set ups is even though the FI may suggest some PM air getting south, this is unlikely to verify, its a model bias with nearer term output shunting the jet north and developing shortwaves near Iceland.

Either some amplification appears or I fear alot of doom and gloom in here over the next few weeks.

It does look ominous Nick,similar wavelengths run after run.

The NAEF ens mean anom is no comfort for any real cold either atT240

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-240.png?0

The odd run teases with a bit of amplification upstream but then it disappears again so looking forward it seems more of the same with the UK remaining locked to the West and north of those peskey Euro Hts.

Here mean Ht.comp.days 8-10

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,

Met office extended outlook pretty much hand in glove with what we're viewing from the model output at the moment.looks like all the current atmospheric,oceanic,teleconections,are simply stacked too highly for anything colder than average.not much hope for anything other than typical late autumn/early winter conditions for the forseeable i'm afraid.the changes we need arn't yet in model range for any proper sustained cold,something needs to change from whats driving the pattern.the stratosphere showing some signs of warming would be a good start,the arctic needs to be unlocked for us to see conditions like what the past trio of winters have delivered.cheers

[Weather Boy]

If people have specific questions of other contributors, it might be best to ask via PM? This thread is for everyone, and shouldn't focus on the few.

Not sure I agree, OON. Folks learn a lot from asking questions, as everyone know from having been at school. Taking Paul's Q as an example, I didn't know that and was pleased to see the response.

That's my fourpenneth, anyway.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/ should see any questions answered.

[Backtrack]

I'm guessing the dashed lines means something wintry?

Yes the lines across the PPN indicate snow.

[nick sussex]

It does look ominous Nick,similar wavelengths run after run.

The NAEF ens mean anom is no comfort for any real cold either atT240

http://176.31.229.22...s-0-0-240.png?0

The odd run teases with a bit of amplification upstream but then it disappears again so looking forward it seems more of the same with the UK remaining locked to the West and north of those peskey Euro Hts.

Here mean Ht.comp.days 8-10

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

Yes it seems that recently they have wanted to bring in a bit more amplification in their later outputs but as we near the 144hrs timeframe the pattern gets flattened again.

I really wish I could pull something out of the output thats a positive I could highlight but I'm still scratching around for that at the moment., give me a bit more time and lets see what I can uncover in my emergency box of straws to clutch!

[shedhead]

Yes it seems that recently they have wanted to bring in a bit more amplification in their later outputs but as we near the 144hrs timeframe the pattern gets flattened again.

I really wish I could pull something out of the output thats a positive I could highlight but I'm still scratching around for that at the moment., give me a bit more time and lets see what I can uncover in my emergency box of straws to clutch!

From a serious point of view, the constant flattening out of the pattern every time it tries to amplify cannot be ignored, that's why I have absolutely no faith whatsoever in the occasional more positve evolution for cold churned out by the models. To my mind and however disappointing/painful it is, I think GP has got this pretty much bang on looking forward to start of Winter, it's going to be after Xmas and perhaps even well into the New Year before the building blocks (no pun intended) for proper cold start to genuinely fall into place.

Edited November 22, 2011 by Paul

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Umm NAEFS has us back with the euro high by the end of the first week of december.

Round 2 anyone?

I shall be keeping a very close eye on this in the coming days to see if this continue's to be modeled on NAEFS.

I can only assume that this time around it maybe a slightly cooler high?

in the meantime we should enjoy the upcoming autumnal weather.

Yes I totally agree and am very disappointed that people will now be put off asking relevant questions in this thread, if its model related isn't that the whole point of this thread.

The whole point of this forum is for people who have an interest in the weather to learn a bit more about what causes it and at the same time discussing what the future holds.

I do hope the moderating team assess this matter and realize this is a huge own goal and totally counter productive to this type of forum where an interest in learning more should be promoted and not criticized!

Totally agree, if it is a question about models, what to look out for etc or how a certain factor will affect the models then it should be asked in here. But that's not rocket science to realise that surely.

Edited November 22, 2011 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Isolated Frost]

Umm NAEFS has us back with the euro high by the end of the first week of december.

Round 2 anyone?

I shall be keeping a very close eye on this in the coming days to see if this continue's to be modeled on NAEFS.

in the meantime we should enjoy the upcoming autumnal weather.

Totally agree, if it is a question about models, what to look out for etc or how a certain factor will affect the models then it should be asked in here. But that's not rocket science to realise that surely.

Yep- and I find the NAEFS model extremely accurate, but again it's a long time away, and the alignment of that high could put is in the freezer or in for some more very mild, unseasonal weather. Game on. I agree, enjoy the autumnal weather coming up.

[nick sussex]

I agree.

The Strato. thread is another example.I have had some usefull information given to me by Chiono. and others when asking questions.

There is a benefit to everyone as long as the subject matter(of the thread) is discussed.

It's laughable that asking questons in a thread about the topic of the thread can be seen as a bad thing!

It's not as if someone asked me who I wanted to win the X-Factor! By the way its Misha B if anyone wants to know!

[johnholmes]

Umm NAEFS has us back with the euro high by the end of the first week of december.

.

euro high, has Europe moved then?

The centre of the +ve anomaly seems to me to be over Scandinavia?

If we cannot even work out where something is then there is precious little chance of interpreting the models correctly.

my apologies if its my old eyes that are at fault.

The other valid point to make is it is at T+384.

How many times does the model even remotely get the correct idea that far out?

I do agree about asking questions on here. I'm a touch surprised that OON should make this comment. I would agree if someone asks a succession of questions that is best dealt with by pm but asking questions is how we all learn.

Edited November 22, 2011 by johnholmes

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Right - I'll run everything past you all first before I say anything.

There are places for questions, and some are good, others merely lead to conversations which take this thread off topic. For the avoidance of doubt, however, I was referring specifically to two individuals who seem to be having a back and forth in public which is getting a bit boring now.

Now - BACK ON TOPIC (if that's alright with everyone?)

[Isolated Frost]

What does the NAEFS say about the 1st December, the beginning of winter proper? How will we start the 'meltdown' season here on NW?

It's going for a w-based +nao, low pressure to the nw, a weak high in se europe and a westerly.

Against the 81-10 average, the UK is pretty much bang on average.

[johnholmes]

From a serious point of view, the constant flattening out of the pattern every time it tries to amplify cannot be ignored, that's why I have absolutely no faith whatsoever in the occasional more positve evolution for cold churned out by the models. To my mind and however disappointing/painful it is, I think GP has got this pretty much bang on looking forward to start of Winter, it's going to be after Xmas and perhaps even well into the New Year before the building blocks (no pun intended) for proper cold start to genuinely fall into place.

I'm not convinced that the pattern is really predicted to 'flatten out'. Yes the GFS is doing it regularly but its hardly a stable platform is it?

The chart below is far from invincible at 10 days out but I'd rather believe its output than the variable GFS, and at times, ECMWF synoptic charts, see below, is that a flat flow?

NOAA in their output last evening did show, as it has over the past few days at the 8-14 day range, have a flatter flow than either of the ECMWF-GFS versions, but all, over the past 7 days, now within the reliable time frame of 72 hours or so, showed what is now expected to occur. A Pm type air mass from the Atlantic with the POSSIBILITY of this veering over time.

see the latest Fax chart with Pm air following on behind the cold front