Northern England Regional Discussion Thread

[damianslaw]

I assume nothing east of the Pennines though Danianslaw?

Yes less likely unless we see a trough feature.

[Cheese Rice]

Posted this in Model discussion, seems suitable for here too!

Interesting weather

I'm going to try and do one of these daily posts focusing on interesting weather occurring over the next 7 days. The models thread is too obsessed with looking at 240 plus completely overlooking anything interesting in the reliable time-frame.

Monday

Throughout Monday we see a brief PM incursion of -5/-6 850s

The colder 850s promoting convection across the Irish sea. These showers falling as snow across most areas with a sleety mixture at the coast. NW Scotland should see showers merging together to bring prolonged periods of snowfall, delivering a few cm's in places. Temporary accumulations possible across NW England.

The NAE goes out to 48 hours and is currently projecting showers pushing inland across Northern England/ Western Scotland/ Northern Ireland and some across Wales/South West England at 3pm. GFS projects the peak of shower activity to be around 6PM, it will be interesting to see what the NAE shows at 6pm on the 18Z output.

Tuesday

During Tuesday we see a deepening area of low pressure (960MB) tracking just north of Scotland.

The main cause for concern is the mixture of strong winds and large rainfall totals. During Tuesday morning we will see winds gusting up to

60 knots (70 MPH).

Heavy rainfall across Central and western parts will lead to localized flooding, particularly across Wales and North West England with 12 hour accumulations totals projected 52mm for wales and 37mm for North West England.

There is a very high risk of disruption to travel on Tuesday morning. High winds and a very wet ground causes trees to become very unstable (when subject to strong winds.). Expect disruption to road, rail and power with trees falling across tracks and power lines etc.

Tuesday Evening

Throughout Tuesday the associated mild sector will quickly leave, followed by colder 850s. Rainfall rapidly turning to snow across the pennines (300M), leading to several cms of wet snow. This transient as the front soon clears with a risk of snow to all areas on its back edge as the cold air undercuts the front.

Through Tuesday evening we see a very similar setup to Monday, the colder 850s will promote convection across the Irish sea, any showers falling as snow away from the coast where a wintry mixture is to be expected.

[Backtrack]

Monday is a very similar setup to the day in which NW England saw lying snow..

Could we get a repeat? Unlikely, but not impossible.

Keep your eyes on some very potent showers developing in the Irish Sea, perhaps merging at times, giving coverings of hail, and probably wet snow inland, but even at coastal areas at times as cooler air is brought down from the upper atmosphere during the heavier showers.

[feb1991blizzard]

I did rubbish compared to other parts of the region in early december, just dustings over the hills, lovely little mini tonking on the morning of the 17th, i am not holding my breath for a repeat but we can hope.

[Isolated Frost]

10c and mild... pleasant day with sufficiently clear skies and broken cloud, and calm winds. Looking forward to some more variable weather as we move into January.

After the horrid, mild-dullfest that was 2011, December has delivered snow cover, a few frosts, some intense storms and heavy rainfall, as well as exceptionally mild conditions... so it's provided some much needed interest I guess! No December 2010, but it sure has got the fun back into the weather this year.

[Backtrack]

I did rubbish compared to other parts of the region in early december, just dustings over the hills, lovely little mini tonking on the morning of the 17th, i am not holding my breath for a repeat but we can hope.

We got an inch or two.

[Snowstorm1]

We got an inch or two.

You get snow again and I dont there will be trouble

[Backtrack]

You get snow again and I dont there will be trouble

Well it's looking NW'erly dominated for a while yet... so looks like there will be trouble, because I'll see snow before you again.

[Snowstorm1]

Well it's looking NW'erly dominated for a while yet... so looks like there will be trouble, because I'll see snow before you again.

I only have had 10mins daft snow shower turn to rain on me so far

[Backtrack]

I only have had 10mins daft snow shower turn to rain on me so far

Long may that continue.

After last year, you deserve it!

[Isolated Frost]

Well it's looking NW'erly dominated for a while yet... so looks like there will be trouble, because I'll see snow before you again.

Don't be too quick to expect that... it does look more likely that you will see snow before ss1... but a trough could easily form and inject cold air into ne england with an added pulse of cold air compared to the more marginal air on the nw flow... and we both seen snow at roughly similar times on 16 Dec- I seen 3cm snow lying at 1200, you seen 4/5cm... but of course ss1 seen nothing

And anyway, we'll see by March 1st who has seen more snow this winter...

[Snowstorm1]

Long may that continue.

After last year, you deserve it!

I don't I believe everybody is entitled to at least 1 day of snow cover per month shame that doesnt happen tho

Don't be too quick to expect that... it does look more likely that you will see snow before ss1... but a trough could easily form and inject cold air into ne england with an added pulse of cold air compared to the more marginal air on the nw flow... and we both seen snow at roughly similar times on 16 Dec- I seen 3cm snow lying at 1200, you seen 4/5cm... but of course ss1 seen nothing

And anyway, we'll see by March 1st who has seen more snow this winter...

Yep I got nothing and im bound to get the least

[Backtrack]

Don't be too quick to expect that... it does look more likely that you will see snow before ss1... but a trough could easily form and inject cold air into ne england with an added pulse of cold air compared to the more marginal air on the nw flow... and we both seen snow at roughly similar times on 16 Dec- I seen 3cm snow lying at 1200, you seen 4/5cm... but of course ss1 seen nothing

And anyway, we'll see by March 1st who has seen more snow this winter...

Odds of that though compared to a heavy shower producing a temporary covering here is slim.

Yep, you just watch. Feb 1st, Polar Low in the Irish Sea will bury NW England.

I don't I believe everybody is entitled to at least 1 day of snow cover per month shame that doesnt happen tho

Yep I got nothing and im bound to get the least

Should ask Paul if he can make that a rule among the months.

[Snowstorm1]

Odds of that though compared to a heavy shower producing a temporary covering here is slim.

Yep, you just watch. Feb 1st, Polar Low in the Irish Sea will bury NW England.

Should ask Paul if he can make that a rule among the months.

LOL

[Isolated Frost]

Yep, you just watch. Feb 1st, Polar Low in the Irish Sea will bury NW England.

Lol Polar Lows are extravagantly more rare than you make out!

For starters, mid-january will have a strong cold front due to pressure rises in the north and west and the jet shifts south into the benelux, then france, then iberia... northerly winds with cold temperatures and snow showers in the north and east.

Then the main course.. height rises in scandinavia accompanied by a deep upper-level trough in france... cold easterly winds with heavy snow showers moving in from the north sea... a strong wind chill and sub-zero temperatures... blizzards and drifts (see 79')

And for dessert, a good week or two of showery, cold north-easterlies in an unstable flow... sunshine and snow showers on and off adding to the snow depth, temperatures fall to record levels on clear nights under record snow depths and a bitter airmass.

:smiliz23:

Urm... excuse me for a sec...

[Backtrack]

Lol Polar Lows are extravagantly more rare than you make out!

For starters, mid-january will have a strong cold front due to pressure rises in the north and west and the jet shifts south into the benelux, then france, then iberia... northerly winds with cold temperatures and snow showers in the north and east.

Then the main course.. height rises in scandinavia accompanied by a deep upper-level trough in france... cold easterly winds with heavy snow showers moving in from the north sea... a strong wind chill and sub-zero temperatures... blizzards and drifts (see 79')

And for dessert, a good week or two of showery, cold north-easterlies in an unstable flow... sunshine and snow showers on and off adding to the snow depth, temperatures fall to record levels on clear nights under record snow depths and a bitter airmass.

:smiliz23:

Urm... excuse me for a sec...

Ahem.

In the voice of Mr.T *Dream on, sucka.*

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

!!!!!Happy new year!!!!!!

[mandi35]

yeah u2 xxxxxxxx

[cheshire snow]

A very happy 2012 to one and all

Back to the weather

Meto update this morning going for a covering of snow for parts of NW England by

morning then frequent wintry showers all day Monday

According to the NAE southern parts of NW England,IE Myself and Backtrack is showing dry

Whilst most northern regions enjoy a bit of snow

Have a good day

C.S

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I'm sure Peter Gibbs sent me to bed last night with the promise of a bright and breezy day today. However, I look out of the window, see the hills flowing with water and have had 15mm of rain so far today.

[mandi35]

rain rain rain go away bring the snow anyday

[pnepaul]

Here in Workington at around 4am there was heavy hail, thunder and lightning!

[Backtrack]

A very happy 2012 to one and all

Back to the weather

Meto update this morning going for a covering of snow for parts of NW England by

morning then frequent wintry showers all day Monday

According to the NAE southern parts of NW England,IE Myself and Backtrack is showing dry

Whilst most northern regions enjoy a bit of snow

Have a good day

C.S

NAE is a horrible model, my least favourite model, but this time I have to agree with it.

There's no northerly element to the flow, so we'll stay dry and sunny whilst Lancashire has rain. Not like I'm bothered, as the conditions aren't right for snow.

Wind is WSW, uppers barely touching -5C and a dewpoint above 0C.

Let them have their rain. :lol:

[cheshire snow]

NAE is a horrible model, my least favourite model, but this time I have to agree with it.

There's no northerly element to the flow, so we'll stay dry and sunny whilst Lancashire has rain. Not like I'm bothered, as the conditions aren't right for snow.

Wind is WSW, uppers barely touching -5C and a dewpoint above 0C.

Let them have their rain. :lol:

Tomorrow Uppers of -5..DP -1

Above 150m slight accumalations of snow very possible for Lancashire

C.S

[Backtrack]

Tomorrow Uppers of -5..DP -1

Above 150m slight accumalations of snow very possible for Lancashire

C.S

GFS suggests DP's of 0C which will tend to rise in showers. Inland & the Pennines have a chance, coastal areas, no chance.