Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[cj114]

Ah, the highs and lows of model watching. Yes pick a model [pref 12z] and stick to it. But we don't, we watch every darned one of them and then take it as gospel. It is the way of the world.

The amount of massive storms progged over the years only to dissipate up to and including 12hrs ahead is amazing. This also goes for Snow storms, Heatwaves etc.

Our weather is the most unpredictable in the World [i read it somewhere] thus the problems we have. But the journey is great and even last year when all the Snow was falling outside, what were we doing??? Yes we were on here!!!

I have observed the weather [and was once involved with it] for over 30yrs. Yet I still find it amazing. We sometimes forget how lucky we are to have such unusual patterns going on.

Which is why I could never settle anywhere else!

Stay safe tomorrow all. And if Thurs/Fri come off be very careful indeed. When you are sitting in your Car as I was in 1990 and the Wind catches under the Bonnet and lifts it up, now THAT is Weather!

[Robbie Garrett]

The following TAFs for London -

TEMPO 1220/1224 20030G43KT 3000 +RA BKN009 (34.5 mph sustained gusting 49.4mph)

and Bristol

BECMG 1221/1224 25020G40KT

Which appears to me that London has the highest forecasted winds tomorrow, according to the Terminal Area forecasts. Coastal Airports such as Shoreham/Lydd won't be available till tomorrow.

[Liam J]

GFS 18z control run still shows the deep low slightly further north, many options on offer and many ups and downs over the coming days.

[Roger J Smith]

Would look for peak winds for south coast of England on Monday afternoon/evening in the range of 40 knots gusting to 65 knots.

Not exceptional but certainly a gale force windstorm at times.

[ZONE 51]

What i've been wondering is after three low pressure systems in a week does this look to be a likely trend for the month ahead or can we not tell this early?

Possible we could see high pressure eventually when the Atlantic calms. at the moment anything could turn up in the next 2 weeks! and i include the word wintry for even the SE.

It is important for everyone to keep on topic, as going off topic can make the forum become confusing for many readers! - just re-edited this bit from earlier, although quote below says what i said first i have realised it sounds wrong, so i have edited in a better way!

Back to the storm.. il be scanning the charts soon and give some idea on what we can expect monday/tuesday

Edited December 12, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Robbie Garrett]

The following weather forecasts in place,

[Trugoy]

Possible we could see high pressure eventually when the Atlantic calms. at the moment antthing could turn up in the next 2 weeks! and i include the word wintry for even the SE.

It is important for everyone to keep on topic as this makes the forum become confusing for many readers!

Back to the storm.. il be scanning the charts soon and give some idea on what we can expect monday/tuesday

My appoligies, just went for the most active thread! I am very interested in your use of the word wintry but wont get my hopes up just yet.. After the last few years i'm sure we will get a snow fall at somepoint this winter but i think we'd be very lucky to get anything before christmas! Then again we got a decent snowfall last december down here and january onwards was a bit of a damp squib. I've seen a few poster on here in the portsmouth to brighton area so will post some updates tomorrow from my neck of the woods if we end up experiecing anything wild!

[Mark Neal.]

As the low moves through wouldn't surprise me if the english channel has wind speeds/gusts in excess of 70-80mph.

Anyone agree?

[Nick F]

newly updated t+120 fax for 12z Friday - brings the low further south now too, could be southern areas in for a blow too.

Looks similar in track to 18z GFS.

[Liam J]

Over half the GFS ensemble solutions went with the earlier deeper low solution running across Scotland on Friday.. clearly a finely balanced set up.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Liam J

[Mark Neal.]

newly updated t+120 fax for 12z Friday - brings the low further south now too, could be southern areas in for a blow too.

Looks similar in track to 18z GFS.

I'd be in the firing line, as i live in Southern England. The next few days will be interesting as we will start to get a realistic idea of where will be hit the most, but some information will be unknown even close to the event itself. Interesting model watching ahead.

Mark.

[Josh Gaffney]

Not looking good for Friday, another 1987 or 1990 storm wouldn't be good at this time of year, a Christmas without power or expensive property damage wouldn't be nice at all.

[bobbydog]

well, what will be will be. watch and wait. we'll enjoy the storms if they come but when you get up in the morning and next door's wheelie bin is sticking out of your car windscreen, you will be thinking " i wish it had just been frosty ".....

[Team Jo]

Just had the met office warning email. I don't think I've ever seen the whole uk covered before!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[pyrotech]

Seen the new warnings by Meto for Thursday and Friday?

The yellow completely covers the whole of the UK so they either have concerns for all areas, or just not sure about the track.

what i will say is they like some confidence before issuing warnings so definitely no downgrade.

Was issued just after midnight, id say they would have waited till 11 am tomorrow if any doubt.

So its batten down hatches folks.

Plus GFS seems to stall any quiet weather after next friday and it continues unsettled - perhaps this pattern will continue into next week too/

One added thing i think rainfall could be equally important for some people with these storms. In the west the water table has normalised and rain has been plentiful recently.

Remember the Buoy Reports from Today

[Luke]

Just had the met office warning email. I don't think I've ever seen the whole uk covered before!

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Not covering their backs there

[Team Jo]

Not covering their backs there

Ooh I love a bit of ambiguity!

[ZONE 51]

Seen the new warnings by Meto for Thursday and Friday?

The yellow completely covers the whole of the UK so they either have concerns for all areas, or just not sure about the track.

what i will say is they like some confidence before issuing warnings so definitely no downgrade.

Was issued just after midnight, id say they would have waited till 11 am tomorrow if any doubt.

So its batten down hatches folks.

Plus GFS seems to stall any quiet weather after next friday and it continues unsettled - perhaps this pattern will continue into next week too/

One added thing i think rainfall could be equally important for some people with these storms. In the west the water table has normalised and rain has been plentiful recently.

Remember the Buoy Reports from Today

It is quite possible that the storm effects everywhere as the deep low storm system moves across.

I think its possible to be a widespread severe gale event with some areas taking on storm force.

be interesting to see how the models handle this!

[PeteB]

Just had the met office warning email. I don't think I've ever seen the whole uk covered before!

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Keeping their options open for Friday I suppose. The main problem I have with extreme storms is that you feel (and are) completely helpless, you just sit there hoping that a tree doesn't fall on your house or your roof gets blown off completely. I'm not looking forward to what could be a major weather event for this area. Last time we had anything really severe was the great January storm of 1968 which I remember really well, there were more trees down in this area on that one night than in every subsequent storm added together.

Pete

[Team Jo]

Better safe than sorry i guess. I'm not getting knickers in a twist over the latest warnings, the ones for Tuesday have changed three or four times in as many days. very much watching the developments.

[knocker]

If you have nothing constructive to post, then buzz off back back to the serious discussion threads that you love to high jack with your views. This is predominately a weather web site. The vast majority on here love exciting weather - be it thunderstorms, tornadoes, snow, extreme heat etc - NONE OF WHICH WE CAN CONTROL - so we might as well sit back and enjoy the roller-coaster ride!

I'm sincerely sorry that i don't know much about the weather, I'm learning but I wasn't aware I high jacked threads. In any case this has convinced me that I have no place in this forum. Enjow your weather.

Edited December 12, 2011 by weather ship

[Josh Gaffney]

My sister is currently planning to get a train from Oban to Glasgow and Glasgow to Falkirk on Friday. If this storm is that size then she might not be able to get a train and she would be stuck in Oban. Will need to keep track because if it is that strong she might have to leave her Dance college on Thursday or earlier.

[Aaron]

If you have nothing constructive to post, then buzz off back back to the serious discussion threads that you love to high jack with your views. This is predominately a weather web site. The vast majority on here love exciting weather - be it thunderstorms, tornadoes, snow, extreme heat etc - NONE OF WHICH WE CAN CONTROL - so we might as well sit back and enjoy the roller-coaster ride!

I will post what someone posted on another weather forum which sums up what I think nicely:

The fact is, this is a weather forum, and people are going to be interested and enthusiastic about unusual/severe weather, end of!

If people really want to discuss the morality of it then please start a separate thread

[knocker]

I will post what someone posted on another weather forum which sums up what I think nicely:

The fact is, this is a weather forum, and people are going to be interested and enthusiastic about unusual/severe weather, end of!

If people really want to discuss the morality of it then please start a separate thread

Not a problem I'm out of here.

[Liam J]

Upgrades within 48 hours, much tighter gradients to the depressions, UKMO & ECM down to 950hpa, Meto now say storm force winds possible over Cumbria on Tuesday.

Early warning for Tuesday, severe gales or storm force winds for N Ireland, Central/Southern Scotland and Northern England.

Gusts over 70mph on the location forecast here.

Nothing this week is set in stone, Warnings upgraded for Thurs/Fri with a countrywide blanket warning on the Meto site.

Tuesday:

Remaining very windy, with frequent blustery showers separated by sunny intervals. The showers will be wintry, with some sleet and snow. Storm force winds perhaps affecting Cumbria late on. Maximum temperature 6 °C

Edited December 12, 2011 by Liam J