Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards Part 2

[Coast]

Please carry on your general conversation and updated information/reports etc with regard to the potential stormy week ahead

Please remember, if you have something more detailed or in-depth you wish to share about the very interesting period coming up this week, we have a thread here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71873-in-depth-analysis-atlantic-storm-12th-december-2011-onwards/

[Polar Bear]

thanks Coast

When are next runs out? I loose track of time and have a hideous memory of when the next set will be out. I am going to be glued to this thread all week. Dont change the name of it. Although if Friday comes off you may have to. Regards PB

hello helllo

what is going on with Wednesday is what I want to know met office hints at some snow for the south east. so focused was i with the storms but not the precipitation.

"Wednesday stays cold and windy with wintry showers. After a promising start on Thursday with lighter winds and some sunshine, heavy rain and severe gales return Thursday night and Friday."

Updated: 0409 on Mon 12 Dec 2011

What is going on?

[Lauren]

The road signs on the way to work all said very heavy winds forecast from 6pm.

[Coast]

thanks Coast

When are next runs out?

GFS = 03:30-04:45 | 09:30-10:45 | 15:30-16:45 | 21:30-22:45 (GMT)

ECMF = 6-7AM || 6-7PM (GMT)

[Robbie Garrett]

Scotland out of the firing line for Thursday/Saturdays storm it seems? -

Issued at - 12 Dec 2011, 13:15

Valid from - 15 Dec 2011, 18:00

Valid to - 16 Dec 2011, 23:59

Rapidly strengthening winds and heavy rain are likely to reach the west later on Thursday and extend quickly eastwards overnight into Friday bringing another potentially stormy period.

The public is advised to monitor warnings for this period, noting that the warning may be upgraded.

The public is advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Edited December 12, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Polar Bear]

GFS = 03:30-04:45 | 09:30-10:45 | 15:30-16:45 | 21:30-22:45 (GMT)

ECMF = 6-7AM || 6-7PM (GMT)

You star thank you

PB

Edited December 12, 2011 by Polar Bear

[Coast]

Just had a quick look at the updated models and I get the feeling things may be a tad windier than prog'd earlier around my way:

The sustained winds are now showing force 10 further West along the Channel and its heading straight into my front door!

I guess the ferries will be cancelled in a couple of hours time as a precursor to a choppy and blowy night.

[snow raven]

It seems so nice and calm outside at the moment it seems hard to believe that strong winds and rain is only a few hours away!

[Harry]

Just had a quick look at the updated models and I get the feeling things may be a tad windier than prog'd earlier around my way:

The sustained winds are now showing force 10 further West along the Channel and its heading straight into my front door!

I guess the ferries will be cancelled in a couple of hours time as a precursor to a choppy and blowy night.

Makes you wonder why the warnings for wind have been removed??

[Robbie Garrett]

It seems so nice and calm outside at the moment it seems hard to believe that strong winds and rain is only a few hours away!

Calm before the storm?

I guess the ferries will be cancelled in a couple of hours time as a precursor to a choppy and blowy night.

Is there any thunderstorm potential over the next few days?

Makes you wonder why the warnings for wind have been removed??

As it's below 50mph gusts for certain parts. I think!

[bobbydog]

Just had a quick look at the updated models and I get the feeling things may be a tad windier than prog'd earlier around my way:

The sustained winds are now showing force 10 further West along the Channel and its heading straight into my front door!

I guess the ferries will be cancelled in a couple of hours time as a precursor to a choppy and blowy night.

hi coast, are the first two charts gusts or sustained?

[Coast]

Makes you wonder why the warnings for wind have been removed??

Ferry cancellations have started, here is the first Channel one, more for Scotland and Ireland in the linky

Cancellation of 22:00 Brittany Ferries service between Plymouth and Roscoff due to bad weather

http://www.bbc.co.uk/travelnews/ferry

hi coast, are the first two charts gusts or sustained?

Sustained at 10M above ground/sea. Can't find those maps for the whole of the UK just yet, sorry!

Is there any thunderstorm potential over the next few days?

More likely to be funnels, a possible tornado or hail I'm guessing

[MR CB]

Oh dear Coast I live right beside the sea...75mph gusts possible around 9pm-midnight!...just had a heavy shower with some nice Cumulonimbus Capillatus in the Channel. Wonder what time high tide is.

My thought for Friday's storm is the Low entering the North Sea - could pose a threat to Eastern Coasts around Lincolnshire and Norfolk?

[mardatha]

Totally lost now. BBC says good day for us tomorrow and yet the Met office site has snow warnings out. :unsure:

[Team Jo]

The Highways agency have also put a warning out to drivers for the wind.

http://www.highways.gov.uk/news/breakingnews.aspx

It wouldn't surprise me if the Dartford bridge is closed, or at least restricted at some point this evening.

The combo of Rain and gusty winds will probably incur some fairly nasty driving conditions, especially on the Motorways, M20 springs to mind.

Still Blue sky and sunshine here... for now.

[bobbydog]

bloody hell! i'm in the F11 zone!

as for you, (Coast) you might as well stay at work because by morning, thats roughly where the new Channel coastline will be!!

Edited December 12, 2011 by bobbydog

[Robbie Garrett]

Thanks Coast.

1500 to 2100z - 1000ft winds 200/55kt sustained, 2000ft winds 210/65kt sustained in knots across the southwest.

[JRMcLeod]

Thundersonw forecast? Quite precise wouldn't you say?

http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/now-scots-set-to-be-hit-by-thundersnow-1.1139336

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/3993160/Thundersnow-and-lightningvery-very-frightening.html

[Marie]

Gone dark here but very calm

[Coast]

Here we go!

bloody hell! i'm in the F11 zone!

as for you, (Coast) you might as well stay at work because by morning, thats roughly where the new Channel coastline will be!!

I hope not, all my Christmas booze is in the garage!

Taken at face value, those GFS charts show Kent and Essex coasts getting the full force of it, as well as those areas of Ireland and Scotland. I don't think anyone will escape it, it's just a case of how strong it's likely to be.

[bobbydog]

I hope not, all my Christmas booze is in the garage!

quick! go and get it- you can keep it in my garage!...

[Marie]

Heavy rain now stopped now lol

Edited December 12, 2011 by Marie

[bobbydog]

Heavy rain now

thats just a shower, the main band is ... erm... on the radar...

[Coast]

Whatever the Europeans currently think of us, they have issued a warning of gales on the SE and rain in the SW:

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index2.php?lang=&country=UK&day=1

[Purplepixii]

Weather has now totally changed here. Some rain and the wind is picking up plus I noticed when I went out for a cigarette that the temperature has dropped. Many hours watching the forums / models / my weather station to look forward to methinks!

Edited December 12, 2011 by Purplepixii