Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards Part 2

[Harry]

Weather has now totally changed here. Very heavy rain and the wind is picking up plus I noticed when I went out for a cigarette that the temperature has dropped. Many hours watching the forums / models / my weather station to look forward to methinks!

Judging by the radar I think that is a shower that is affecting Hampshire.

The real stuff is currently over Cornwall/Devon, but making quick inroads eastwards.

Notice on the satellite image, the low is gathering momentum and beginning to wrap up nicely!

[WaitingForMackerel]

Currently gusting 35-40mph, highest gust so far 42mph, mean wind speed around 30mph. Pressure has dropped about 2.5millibar in the last hour. Raining pretty consistenly, but not that heavy. As a point of comparison, met office have it gusting to 44mph at 3pm.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Treiagonaut

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to my post in the old thread, I have also cross posted the following to the Southern regional thread.

I've seen a post in the MOD thread that is of particular interest to us folk down south in the immediate timeframe.

Here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71881-model-output-discussion-12th-december-onward/page__view__findpost__p__2181740

Take care.

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 12, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[kate1]

Apparently the Met office have now issued an Amber warning for rain and high winds from 4 pm but it still isn't showing on their website...

[DanN]

Weather has now totally changed here. Some rain and the wind is picking up plus I noticed when I went out for a cigarette that the temperature has dropped. Many hours watching the forums / models / my weather station to look forward to methinks!

Look out for an increase in temp & dew points later this evening as well...

[Harry]

Apparently the Met office have now issued an Amber warning for rain and high winds from 4 pm but it still isn't showing on their website...

Are we presuming therefore the yellow was replaced with a view to adding an amber?

Look out for an increase in temp & dew points later this evening as well...

I would add "briefly" - the cold front will not be far behind!

Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if there was lightning this evening across the south coast (Channel region) after the front clears....

[Coast]

I've tied looking at various other models as much of what I've seen so far was from GFS. These are from NW Extra and are the Hi-res NMM charts for wind gusts - they concur with GFS and others. They show the worst of it from 2200hrs tonight until approx 0100 hrs tomorrow. Ireland seems to provide a bit of a buffer to much of the middle of the country but if you have NW extra, watch the animated progression of the storm up the Channel which acts like a duct for the winds along English and French coasts:

[WaitingForMackerel]

Just broken the 50 mark with 51mph gust at 3.08 pm

[DanN]

Are we presuming therefore the yellow was replaced with a view to adding an amber?

I would add "briefly" - the cold front will not be far behind!

Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if there was lightning this evening across the south coast (Channel region) after the front clears....

I was wondering about the convective risk, dew points look to increase to around 10c (GFS that is, NAE has them in the channel), probably briefly like you say, but with the cold air behind there must be a risk? I hadn't seen much discussion on that aspect - more on wind speeds!

Edited December 12, 2011 by danuk

[gottolovethisweather]

Apparently the Met office have now issued an Amber warning for rain and high winds from 4 pm but it still isn't showing on their website...

Paul has confirmed their website is having issues.

Edited December 12, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Insert Name Here]

Storm just starting to appear on the Altlantic sky as seen from Ayrshire...

Edited December 12, 2011 by Paula Livingstone

[gottolovethisweather]

Coast, would it be advisable to start a current reports thread?

If so, would someone like to start one as the reports are already coming according to one or two posters.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Currently 6.6c AT, 4.4c DP, 1004.6hpa falling slowly. Rain by rush hour in my region.

Edited December 12, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

I was wondering about the convective risk, dew points look to increase to around 10c (GFS that is, NAE has them in the channel), probably briefly like you say, but with the cold air behind there must be a risk? I hadn't seen much discussion on that aspect - more on wind speeds!

Not a lot of CAPE, but I don't think that is an issue here

Convergence in the tails flow:

Lapse rates off the scale into Ireland

Then there's the shear and helicity.......

I still say marginal for thunderstorms, more conducive to rotating things out of the sky - and I don't mean next doors whirly washing line!

[richjb78]

Blue sky and sun has gone here now, although wind and rain not expected until sometime after 6pm.

[tinybill]

Blue sky and sun has gone here now, although wind and rain not expected until sometime after 6pm.

met office det yellow alert for the east side of the uk

[West Sussex Kate]

Calm before the storm......

[Bobby]

Look at that beast, 943mb off Scotland tomorrow

The heavy rain has started here, good chance of us getting 2 inches out of this I think, ground is already saturated so there'll be some flooding in places no doubt.

[DanN]

Not a lot of CAPE, but I don't think that is an issue here

I still say marginal for thunderstorms, more conducive to rotating things out of the sky - and I don't mean next doors whirly washing line!

Thanks Coast, Just looking at some forecast soundings and the atmosphere looks pretty saturated throughout - I guess that probably explains some of it.

[weatherobsuk]

Not surprisingly coastal areas around the Southeast & Southwest are on Flood Alert for tonight, with expected onshore winds & swell driven up by gales. Exacerbated by onshore rains leading to floodwater clogging up drains and river systems backing up as tide heights make their way upstream driven by wind.

[Coast]

Oh the Daily Express, don't you just love em?

BRITAIN was told to brace itself for the worst weather in 30 years – with forecasts of gale-force winds, snow, sleet and torrential rain.

The Met Office issued a weather warning of gales as strong as 100mph and a freezing wind chill factor bringing the coldest week of the winter so far. Experts said there will be little respite until the New Year with more brutal weather during the run-up to Christmas.

Motoring organisations urged the public to heed the warnings and plan journeys carefully to avoid the “carpet bomb†weather heading our way.

And there were fears that already hard-hit retailers will take another financial wallop as Christmas shoppers may be put off by the extreme elements from stepping out on the high street. A double whammy of two deep Atlantic low-pressure systems is forecast to smash in from the South-west later tonight. High winds and rain will lash most of England with the South and Northern Ireland expected to take the brunt of the gales and storm-force winds. Snow and sleet is likely on higher ground as far south as Dartmoor and Exmoor and on the North Downs.

Temperatures will drop to around 5C (41F) in the North and 7C (45F) in the South but it will feel colder because of the wind chill factor.

While temperatures will not hit freezing in the weather system’s first phase, high winds and flooding are expected to make travel treacherous and cause structural damage. After a brief lull on Wednesday a second stronger bout will hit on Thursday night going into Friday. It is likely to cause more havoc. It will bring a drop in temperatures in the North to 1C (34F) and 4C (39F) in the South but wind chill will make temperatures sub-zero.

Aisling Creevey, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, said: “There’s a system coming through on Tuesday and again on Thursday – it looks as if they will be two stormy days. “We could see gusts of 100mph in some places – but there is very little confidence about exactly where.â€

Met Office forecaster Alex Fox said we could see snow fall in the North and on higher ground in the South. Mr Fox said: “It’s really going to be windy this week with gales, even severe gales at times in some parts. There’s certainly going to be wet weather about as well.†He said daytime temperatures are set to only reach single figures.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/289401/100mph-storms-on-their-way

[Gorath]

Heavy rain just kicking in here. It's slowly but steadily building in intensity. Winds are nothing to write home about, yet.

[Luke]

Are winds likely to be severe here or not?

[bobbydog]

so whats up with the Meto? have they issued an amber warning or not?

[Rich_Clements]

Just came across this http://www.youtube.c...KKocsW_uBXY]Met

Edit: Its a video made by the Met Office Senior forecaster talking about this week

Edited December 12, 2011 by Rich_Clements

[Coast]

Just had a quick peek at the METAR and TAF for Shoreham airport (aviation forecasts for specific airports). They aren't going out further than 2100hrs currently but they already show:

Temporary from 12 at 18 UTC to 12 at 21 UTC Wind 33 kt from south/southwest with gusts up to 45 kt

Things don't really get going for another couple of hours after this period so 70 mph may just be feasible.

http://en.allmetsat....d.php?icao=EGKA