Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards Part 2

[Upgrade]

Coast question here am i led to believe that the latest track of the storm system is now over france and the southern half of the uk?

Must admit that is quite a movement now is it not from what was forecast yesterday. Confused and a touch concerned as a storm of the 87 magnitude would be something else. This is not scare mongering just general concern that this could get quite bad

Friday may be a non event , or it may be the storm of the century, lots of variability in the models for the track and intensity of Fridays storm. So unfortunately its impossible to say what will happen at the moment.

The worries over the potential for this week's winds have arisen because the particular atmospheric conditions which lead to short notice, extreme windstorm events (bomb cyclogenesis) are present and aimed squarely towards us. So the possibility for an extreme event is there.

However it is a possibility, rather than a certainty - and no one can say for sure whether this will happen. It's a bit like Russian Roulette at the moment!

Everyone's hoping for a blank (ok , apart from on here) , but the uk could be in line for the bullet.

I would say there's a one in 6 chance of an extreme windstorm hitting the south - they do from time to time. Although, if my memory serves me correctly , the last full gale we experienced in London was in about 2002 or 2003. so they havent been common in the last few years. we are probably overdue a gale.

I do like a good blow!

Edited December 12, 2011 by Upgrade

[knightrider]

It's still so eareely calm out. GFS has gusts of around 55mph for my region for around about midnight to 2am which is kind of about what I was expecting I suspect somewhere on the south coast tonight is going to get gusts over 70mph for a time! As for Friday I'm dissapointed to see that GFS has downgraded it at least for my location suggesting nothing over 40mph then again I think there's still alot of uncertainty about that system with other models and forecasts predicting there could be gusts in access of 70mph just about anywhere in the country, I did have to laugh at The Daily Express's main headline today though. Talk about over the top and ramping things up, we all know they just wrote that stuff about 100mph and worst storms for 30 years to get a few more sales!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Friday may be a non event , or it may be the storm of the century, lots of variability in the models for the track and intensity of Fridays storm. So unfortunately its impossible to say what will happen at the moment.

The worries over the potential for this week's winds have arisen because the particular atmospheric conditions which lead to short notice, extreme windstorm events (bomb cyclogenesis) are present and aimed squarely towards us. So the possibility for an extreme event is there.

However it is a possibility, rather than a certainty - and no one can say for sure whether this will happen. It's a bit like Russian Roulette at the moment!

Everyone's hoping for a blank (ok , apart from on here) , but the uk could be in line for the bullet.

I would say there's a one in 6 chance of an extreme windstorm hitting the south - they do from time to time. Although, if my memory serves me correctly , the last full gale we experienced in London was in about 2002 or 2003. so they havent been common in the last few years. we are probably overdue a gale.

I do like a good blow!

LOL don't we all

[Snow free zone]

How can there be so much difference between the UK met and the ECM and GFS for the track of Fridays LP ?

[knightrider]

I'm not expecting anything major tonight but we could get some decent squals as the rain moves through, there's certainly going to be alot of rain though and there's the likelyhood of some wet snow over the higher ground in Kent like The Downs for example. I think it's Thursday night into Friday we all need to watch with interest, I think the MetO need to make their minds up about that storm and fast, where is it going to be worst and just how bad is it going to be?? Judging by the latest runs I'd say the south could get severe gales of anything between 60-80mph on Thursday night and early Friday morning then later on Friday the storm appears to sweep up the country deepening as it does so bringing the likelyhood of 90-100mph gusts to Scotland I'd say.

[The PIT]

Well this is going to embarrassing for several models. UKMO still has the storm GFS does not. All eyes on the ECM to see if that shows it or not. Other lesser models either show it over France or blowing the UK away. Never seen such a split before. No way the met office issue a warning today over this due to this split.

Edited December 12, 2011 by The PIT

[knightrider]

How can there be so much difference between the UK met and the ECM and GFS for the track of Fridays LP ?

There's alot of variations to be had yet, if you got on the Met Office website there's an interesting video about this weeks weather their still very uncertain about Friday's LP system and are trying to pin it down, it does appear to cover a very large area so I think most of the UK are going to feel the effects of it it's just a question of where's going to get it worst?

[Harry]

How can there be so much difference between the UK met and the ECM and GFS for the track of Fridays LP ?

Each model uses slightly different data to formulate the models.

All it takes is one slight difference between a model, for it to lead to totally different outcomes.

Your next question will probably be, which model tends to be right more often.....now there's a question indeed!!!! I personally would say ECMWF, but that is qualitative assessment with no factual basis behind it (just my perception). Yet, often this year, GFS has been spot on while ECMWF has been way off the mark.

[PurpleButterfly]

Thank you so much to all you guy's on all the updates and data on these current storms.

It's been a very clear day here. The cloud started to roll in at around 3pm and got dark quite quick.

Current conditions here: Temperature: 6 °C Comfort Level: 3 °C Dew point: 2 °C Barometer: 1003 millibars Humidity: 76% Wind: 15 km/h from 200° South-southwest

All is quiet at the moment. I've been watching the charts and the weather warnings change since the weekend.

What are your thoughts on my neck of the woods? Will I see significant wind/rain here or will it be as the MetO predict, winds of up to 51mph???

This would be for tonight through to friday night.

Edited December 12, 2011 by boo1981

[Coast]

I think the MetO need to make their minds up about that storm and fast, where is it going to be worst and just how bad is it going to be?? J

No, that's exactly what they shouldn't do!

Need more runs, more info, more accuracy. It isn't like us on here guessing what outcomes would be and just walking away from the forum. This is a government organisation who will be looked at to give national advice on a potentially serious event - no guessing or wrong calling, they must be assured of what is coming and won't know until right up to the last few hours.

[Liam J]

Meto removed Tuesdays wind warning for Cumbria but recent updates still predict gusts of 70-75mph for my town Tuesday evening, odd?

Meanwhile the Meto sound confident this storm will happen, NW England Forecast from them below

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Windy with more wintry showers Wednesday. Bright and frosty at first Thursday but becoming exceptionally windy with heavy rain overnight into Friday. Staying very windy Friday with wintry showers.

Updated: 1459 on Mon 12 Dec 2011

[knightrider]

Tonight will be a damp squib I can see it comming lol After all the hype from the media and the MetO warning us for days on end and now they seem to have yellow warnings out just for the rain but not the wind tonight, if we get a tempest they'll be sorry that they removed those warnings or didn't upgrade them!

[Purplepixii]

Look out for an increase in temp & dew points later this evening as well...

You're right there, temp was at 9.3^oC with 7.2^oC windchill, I'm now watching it drop (currently at 9.0 / 6.1)

[Harry]

Well this is going to embarrassing for several models. UKMO still has the storm GFS does not. All eyes on the ECM to see if that shows it or not. Other lesser models either show it over France or blowing the UK away. Never seen such a split before. No way the met office issue a warning today over this due to this split.

Well now that depends on how you interpret the GFS charts. GFS still shows (or at least how I interpret it) a very deep depression, borderline storm, which reaches peak intensity as it drifts to our East.

Just because one run has weakened its intensity doesn't mean that's how it will play out! Given the synoptics, I'd be surprised if its not something quite intense.

[Snow and storms]

Very quiet calm weather here all day, as I was heading home from work out in the country side I couldn't see a thing, the cloud cover is so thick that there was no light on horizon or moon light. Just started to rain hard and a small breeze picking up. Looking forward to tonight 70mph+ gusts along here. Wish I had a wind measurey thingy.

As for Friday, does anyone get an odd de javu feeling this has got great storm of 1987 written all over it? A unusually ferocious storm was forecast end of last week, it has now vanished from some models and downgraded from others, no one has much idea of where it's going, maybe some where around the Bay of Biscay? before it unpredictably deepens and heads north over south east england and off into North sea maybe? If we look back to that storm I wonder if it could of been predicted even with the advances in equipment and forecasts.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I wrote on the wall on met office twitter and got a response I asked the question.."What sort of winds are likely in the south east tonight?" the reply "In the south east 50-60mph is likely with 70mph on the coast" 0.o

Edited December 12, 2011 by Surrey

[Bobby]

Nasty outside here, winds picking up now with persistent heavy driving rain.

[coldfingers]

'Coast' said "I hope not, all my Christmas booze is in the garage!"

Where exactly in Eastbourne are you Coast? And which number?

Already starting to get very gusty here about half a mile from the sea at Bognor. Force 10 forcast for here but I reckon Eastbourne and east of there could get the worst of this. What time is high tide I wonder? OH DEAR 00:23am high here, just as the wind is peaking and around 6 hours for the swell to build! No wonder they have the storm surge barriers up on the slipways on the prom. I will be down there in the morning to see if any of the fishermen lost their tackle to the sea this time.

Edited December 12, 2011 by coldfingers

[knightrider]

Very quiet calm weather here all day, as I was heading home from work out in the country side I couldn't see a thing, the cloud cover is so thick that there was no light on horizon or moon light. Just started to rain hard and a small breeze picking up. Looking forward to tonight 70mph+ gusts along here. Wish I had a wind measurey thingy.

As for Friday, does anyone get an odd de javu feeling this has got great storm of 1987 written all over it? A unusually ferocious storm was forecast end of last week, it has now vanished from some models and downgraded from others, no one has much idea of where it's going, maybe some where around the Bay of Biscay? before it unpredictably deepens and heads north over south east england and off into North sea maybe? If we look back to that storm I wonder if it could of been predicted even with the advances in equipment and forecasts.

The MetO certainly dont seem much more sure of what's going to happen then they did back then lol Their models actually picked up the 1987 storm beautifully about a week in advance and the runs where spot on, yet for some reason they lost data in the days leading upto the storm I think it had something to do with Boyd's out at sea which weather stations relyed on alot back then for data comming in from shipping forecasts! So they took a wild stab in the dark the day before it hit and said not to worry there wont be a storm/hurricane! WHOOPS :blush:

[Chief Wiggam]

Chimet showing F7 with F8 gusts ands trend is upwards

Winds now starting to be apparent outside but no ferry cancellations just yet

[Harry]

Nothing occurring in London as yet as I'm about to commence my commute home.

Skies have that bronzed look so rainfall not too far away.

Light breeze at the moment

[weatherobsuk]

I actually disagree with the motion that if nothing happens on Thurs/Fri given the expected run, it's nothing more than a damp squid. Lessons would be learnt from this in how model prediction and behaviour influences both forecast outliers for 120hr ahead, aswell as it putting new data into the system to prevent such confusion possibly happening again.

No weather event like this goes un-recorded by the MetO, and it'll easily be recycled for future use in meteorological education analysis.

[Wilxy]

Winds picking up now here with heavy rain.

[essex coast matt]

Winds have picked up to a modrate breeze now, rekcon gusts around 60mph here later, and maybe inch rain looking at the radar.

[Chief Wiggam]

F9 gusts and now F8 average.................................