Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[J10]

Rain to start will probably result in snow sticking quicker on road surfaces as any gritting done will be washed away which will probably mean, most roads wont be gritted to begin with, hence i think travel problems rush hour friday will be highly likely. We could however have done with a couple of harsh frosts to cool the ground temps before hand which would have helped

Given the heaviness of the expected rain there could be widespread puddles. There is certainly potential for dangerous traveling conditions especially on the Heads of the Valleys.

However the track is not set it may still be further north or further south yet.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The snow potential for Thursday night is greater than before, with higher ground in the South Wales Valleys looking favoured .However there is one consideration, that most places will see rain to start, and as such any snow that does fall is less likely to stick. Areas close to coast especially in western areas may well miss out on any snow, despite the wind direction turning round to a N/NE to finish.

However the NW flow after this although marginal has much better thicknesses than the attempts a week or so ago.

NMM Snow prediction 10pm

NMM Snow prediction 12pm

As you can see as time pushes on the snow levels become more extensive to the south, the 12pm chart is as far as this goes out. the 18hz run will do another 6 hours ahead.

Another thing to bear in mind with these types of scenarios is does your area do well out of them.

Cheers for posting the NMM charts, looks to me like its inline with the NAE- Snow to North, Central/East Wales & into the Midlands. But this risk of snow may go further northwards (e.g. Low being further north) or the snow risk comes southwards (low further south) - The models have seemed to place this low on a more southerly track generally so i would tend to favour it not being further north at least.

[Daniel Miller]

Given the heaviness of the expected rain there could be widespread puddles. There is certainly potential for dangerous traveling conditions especially on the Heads of the Valleys.

However the track is not set it may still be further north or further south yet.

What would it mean if it was further south? Also, what are the expected accumulations for my area, do you know? or just generally? Thanks

Also, to andy, where are your infamous charts of last winter? :o with the symbols, I loved those

Edited December 14, 2011 by Daniel Miller

[Jackfrost]

This setup reminds me of the Dec 19th 1999 event. I remember seeing snow on the hills in the morning, but as the day went on it started turning ever colder with the rain finally turning into snow by evening which left 6 inches or so. It was magical as a 9 year old, especially so close to Christmas.

[Snowmadsam]

nothing for me then

[andymusic]

What would it mean if it was further south? Also, what are the expected accumulations for my area, do you know? or just generally? Thanks

Also, to andy, where are your infamous charts of last winter? :o with the symbols, I loved those

old weather online ones - website has now been scrapped and gone to website heaven! - awwwwwwwwww

a good percentage of Wales is gonna see a fair smattering of snow this time round overnight thursday/friday - i'll be out in newbridge till midnight assisting the mrs with her series of whitney houston tribute gigs - so lets hope we can get home before it gets bad - could be touch and go

Edited December 14, 2011 by andymusic

[Scarlet_Snow]

nothing for me then

Don't worry we might get something on the weekend when the flow turns North westerly

[Daniel Miller]

old weather online ones - website has now been scrapped and gone to website heaven! - awwwwwwwwww

a good percentage of Wales is gonna see a fair smattering of snow this time round overnight thursday/friday - i'll be out in newbridge till midnight assisting the mrs with her series of whitney houston tribute gigs - so lets hope we can get home before it gets bad - could be touch and go

Nooo :'( We must have a service for it some time

Ahh cool Enjoy yourself, hope you pull up home as it starts haha

On a more serious note, was it not a NW flow that brought us all the snow last December?:S

[keithlucky]

Some really heavy showers now heading from the west will reach S west in the next few hrs.

[Snowmadsam]

old weather online ones - website has now been scrapped and gone to website heaven! - awwwwwwwwww

Oh no they haven't! looking good

[andymusic]

Nooo :'( We must have a service for it some time

Ahh cool Enjoy yourself, hope you pull up home as it starts haha

On a more serious note, was it not a NW flow that brought us all the snow last December?:S

yes it was - but it was also in a much colder air flow - this friday morning "event looks good at the moment - + plus cold air will flow in to keep any snow that does fall nice and fresh over the weekend

Oh no they haven't! looking good

those are the new ones - looking good for friday though!

[Daniel Miller]

Ah ok andy, thanks

Ooohh. They're there! Look good aswell! That is heavy snow if I'm not mistaken?

[Snowmadsam]

looking good (from Derek's forecast)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Edited December 14, 2011 by Snowmadsam

[Wales123098]

Drove up to the Beacons today. Was snowing when I was parked up opposite Story Arms with a few inches on the grass and mountains. Looked good at the tops but didn't get out of the car much as I sort of just drove up there after my lesson randomly so was not dressed for walking up snowy mountains! Should get some snow Friday I hope

[Jase]

Evening, can enyone help? Im more than happy reading the forums and the 10 day at a glance thing trying to work out if we will get snow or not etc etc, however my 8 year son has a real interest in the weather and is always asking more questions that i can answer, does anyone know any links to where an 8 year old can start to learn about charts etc?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Evening, can enyone help? Im more than happy reading the forums and the 10 day at a glance thing trying to work out if we will get snow or not etc etc, however my 8 year son has a real interest in the weather and is always asking more questions that i can answer, does anyone know any links to where an 8 year old can start to learn about charts etc?

Heres a link to the Met Office Educational site: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/

Good place to start i would think.

[Jase]

Brilliant! Thanks for that Not sure we will get anyting snow wise in the next few days its all or nothing with us

[TonyH]

Rain to start will probably result in snow sticking quicker on road surfaces as any gritting done will be washed away which will probably mean, most roads wont be gritted to begin with, hence i think travel problems rush hour friday will be highly likely. We could however have done with a couple of harsh frosts to cool the ground temps before hand which would have helped

The deepest snow I have ever seen fell after hours of heavy rain, it gave 31cm in Coventry in December 1990.

Update to the weather guide for this week (west Wales and the Midlands):

This update is because modelling of the low pressure due to arrive tomorrow night has changed considerably since the original guide produced at the weekend.

This system is still coming, however it is no longer expected to cause much gale danger or damage as it is set to track across southern England, or even the English Channel, as a less deep affair than the very deep feature all models were previously showing to cross northern Britain. One aspect of this more southerly track is that rather than a risk from the wind, a snow risk will be present instead, as Wales and the Midlands will generally remain on the cold side of the low.

Rain and a freshening wind will spread into west Wales by Thursday evening, eventually spreading to most of the Midlands too, and persisting all night; winds should not be much of a problem. Colder air will be dragged into the low's circulation, enough for the rain to turn to snow in places during the night, perhaps lasting into the morning. This means that some of us will be troubled by snow for our travels on Friday morning. Higher ground, such as the Cambrian Mountains and the Cotswolds is most at risk of heavy snow that will lie to several inches depth, although wet snow could also fall in the lower Midlands for a time too but probably not settling much if at all in Coventry and Rugby. In west Wales the coasts should escape, but the Lampeter and Carmarthen area could well see disruptive snow accumulations early on Friday.

The snow and rain clears in the morning to showers; a cold and raw day but most of any lying snow should thaw, except over very high ground. Maxima probably below 5c only.

Rather cold and showery for the weekend, more hail showers for west Wales, and still the possibility of (mainly) hill snow. Few showers for the Midlands excepting if a 'Cheshire gap' streamer sets up, then a narrow strip of the Midlands will see plenty of showers, while adjacent areas tend to miss most of them. Overnight frosts.

Disclaimer: such is the nature of south tracking lows that there is also the possibility of this depression going so far south, that the precipitation only reaches the very south of Wales and the Midlands, however, that is not being modelled currently!

Edited December 14, 2011 by TonyH

[WalsallWeather]

No weather warning for me inbetween Carmarthen and Llanelli for Friday although there has been talk that we could see snow! Not sure if I even want snow, with a 6am start on Friday morning it wouldn't be ideal!

[Scarlet_Snow]

The low looks even further south on the 18z GFS.....what effect will this have? Will any snow forecast be further south?

[Snowmadsam]

No weather warning for me inbetween Carmarthen and Llanelli for Friday although there has been talk that we could see snow! Not sure if I even want snow, with a 6am start on Friday morning it wouldn't be ideal!

Nor for me

[jo200199]

old weather online ones - website has now been scrapped and gone to website heaven! - awwwwwwwwww

a good percentage of Wales is gonna see a fair smattering of snow this time round overnight thursday/friday - i'll be out in newbridge till midnight assisting the mrs with her series of whitney houston tribute gigs - so lets hope we can get home before it gets bad - could be touch and go

Really hope we get some snow that sticks around for the weekend :-) Where is your better half simging? Hotel? We have a charity gig on down crumlin, maybe I'll need to borrow the kids sleigh? :-0

[andymusic]

Really hope we get some snow that sticks around for the weekend :-) Where is your better half simging? Hotel? We have a charity gig on down crumlin, maybe I'll need to borrow the kids sleigh? :-0

newbridge hotel - 4 x whitney this week and same again next week

[pyrotech]

Well snow has increased further for Mid wales and right accross to South East England on latest NAE (18z)

Ian Fergusson quote " 18z NAE increases snow risk for the West Country†indeed. Could be truly dire Fri AM Cotswolds/M4 & elsewhere. Stay tuned..."

[Daniel Miller]

Well snow has increased further for Mid wales and right accross to South East England on latest NAE (18z)

Ian Fergusson quote " 18z NAE increases snow risk for the West Country†indeed. Could be truly dire Fri AM Cotswolds/M4 & elsewhere. Stay tuned..."

Hmm.. Word on the model thread is that snow risk has decreased for S.Wales, which includes you and me :S