Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[Bobby]

The low and so snow risk further south on latest NAE and GFS so the valleys could now be in firing line, even Cardiff etc too.

[pyrotech]

Hmm.. Word on the model thread is that snow risk has decreased for S.Wales, which includes you and me :S

Yes it seems to have given more for new areas and taken every chance for us away. Thats a quote from BBC West forecaster in last few mins from his twitter account.

Nothing much for Devon and Cornwall either just his back yard area really. but you never know glass half full and all that.

I can handle the storm being nothing more than a breeze, but if everyone else gets snow and i get naff all then i will be miffed

[alijoe]

Yes it seems to have given more for new areas and taken every chance for us away. Thats a quote from BBC West forecaster in last few mins from his twitter account.

Nothing much for Devon and Cornwall either just his back yard area really. but you never know glass half full and all that.

I can handle the storm being nothing more than a breeze, but if everyone else gets snow and i get naff all then i will be miffed

Lol, thats me as well. I don't know why I ever get my hopes up really, living in Magor is a no go 99% of the time, but when that Snow word is mentioned, it just brings out the BIG kid in me and my brain goes in overdrive thinking of it. Sooooo depressing when it goes down hill but so so much worse if others around get it and you don't. lol I know it's selfish but hey ho.....

[Daniel Miller]

Yes it seems to have given more for new areas and taken every chance for us away. Thats a quote from BBC West forecaster in last few mins from his twitter account.

Nothing much for Devon and Cornwall either just his back yard area really. but you never know glass half full and all that.

I can handle the storm being nothing more than a breeze, but if everyone else gets snow and i get naff all then i will be miffed

Yeah I would probably cry, especially as they say S.E England will get some! WHY them? Thing is it is hard to track the exact path of these lows so they will be shifting about from run to run.

The low and so snow risk further south on latest NAE and GFS so the valleys could now be in firing line, even Cardiff etc too.

You sure? The general thought is that it decreases our chances? :/

[WalsallWeather]

Hmm.. Word on the model thread is that snow risk has decreased for S.Wales, which includes you and me :S

Well I'm guessing that includes me then!?

[keithlucky]

Calm down they not weathermen on forum, we will have rain after 6pm tomorrow but with the Lp further south we will drag the colder air further south which will turn the rain to snow further south quicker.

[Bobby]

You sure? The general thought is that it decreases our chances? :/

12z NAE

18z NAE

Looks a bit better

And Ian Fergusson says it looks bad for M4/Gloucestershire/Cotswalds and that's fairly south.

The precipitation should be fairly intense especially over the hills too so if it is snow there could be a fair bit.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Barb-

[pyrotech]

Well I'm guessing that includes me then!?

Okay but now i got doom and gloom for some users time to cheer you all up abit

firstly this low tonight should bring some interesting weather overnight

Heard gusts of 78mph in Sourthern Ireland

Hail, Thunder and lightning near Milford Haven

Any one able to confirm or any reports elsewhere keep them coming in

Secondly this low is still along way out

Now i am not a mean person so not going to hope our english friends miss out on the snow or our friends in Mid Wales

But we just do not for sure know where this low will track, 25 miles makes a huge difference and its got much more variables than 25 mile

I think those areas mentioned are most likely to get it even with flexibility in the path, but who knows

So my friends in South wales we wait and hope, trying not to wish so hard that our friends in mid and north wales lose out.

We can all meet on Brecon Beacons for a sledging race

[Daniel Miller]

Calm down they not weathermen on forum, we will have rain after 6pm tomorrow but with the Lp further south we will drag the colder air further south which will turn the rain to snow further south quicker.

Haa that's true.. I haven't looked at the charts yet because I'm watching a film so I'm just going on what they say.

When Ferguson says "dire", what exactly does he mean? :S

[J10]

NAE 18Hz whihc has the low slightly further south extends the snow risk over much of South Wales, and more of it will also start of as snow. IF it were to come off, even coastal areas may be effected as the wind switches round to the North later. As ever though higher areas of the Valleys in SE Wales are in the firing line.

Conversely the GFS has the low much further south so the vast majority of the precipitation will miss Wales altogether.

Which is more likely. Who Knows?

More detail on the exact track and NMM to follow later.

[Marcus_surfer]

Odd how the BBC forecasts are missing the most southern part of Wales all together with little rain or snow falling tomorrow night whilst further north lots of rain and snow, surely there will be more PPN in the south if it pushes in from the south and then exits to the south/southeast when the winds turn more northwesterly?

[keithlucky]

Haa that's true.. I haven't looked at the charts yet because I'm watching a film so I'm just going on what they say.

When Ferguson says "dire", what exactly does he mean? :S

More chance of heavy snow in the SWest .

[pyrotech]

Haa that's true.. I haven't looked at the charts yet because I'm watching a film so I'm just going on what they say.

When Ferguson says "dire", what exactly does he mean? :S

Think he means bad for travel conditions, the timing will coincide with pre rush hour and thru rush hour for many central areas ( his forecast areas not Wales)

[Daniel Miller]

More chance of heavy snow in the SWest .

Ahh ok What do you reckon, will we be hit or miss?

Regarding the NAE v GFS. It would be interesting to see who is better at placing short term lows etc. as a better guide as to which one to "trust".

[pyrotech]

Odd how the BBC forecasts are missing the most southern part of Wales all together with little rain or snow falling tomorrow night whilst further north lots of rain and snow, surely there will be more PPN in the south if it pushes in from the south and then exits to the south/southeast when the winds turn more northwesterly?

marcus im surprised at you, you are a seasoned user on here and should know that the actual areas of percipitation should be used only as a very rough guide.

We know by now not to take them fully at face value, just as what percipitation type and then its down to now casting.

Nice to see you back

[J10]

Odd how the BBC forecasts are missing the most southern part of Wales all together with little rain or snow falling tomorrow night whilst further north lots of rain and snow, surely there will be more PPN in the south if it pushes in from the south and then exits to the south/southeast when the winds turn more northwesterly?

http://www.metoffice...y-and-unsettled gives a bit of info based on previous charts, showing the Meso model than UKMO use.

Both the BBC National and local forecasts tend to be based on previous NAE Runs.

Hope I'm not on stepping on Jamie's toes.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201112141200&VAR=prec&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= <- Link to 12Hz Run NAE

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&WMO=&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201112141800%26HH%3D42 <- Link to 18Hz Run NAE

GFS 18Hz Run Precipitation

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111214/18/27/ukprec.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111214/18/30/ukprec.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111214/18/33/ukprec.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111214/18/36/ukprec.png

GFS 12Hz Run Precipitation

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111214/12/33/ukprec.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111214/12/36/ukprec.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111214/12/39/ukprec.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111214/12/42/ukprec.png

Notice that the 18HZ precipitation largely misses Wales to the south.

[Marcus_surfer]

marcus im surprised at you, you are a seasoned user on here and should know that the actual areas of percipitation should be used only as a very rough guide.

We know by now not to take them fully at face value, just as what percipitation type and then its down to now casting.

Nice to see you back

Thanks for slapping me in the face pyro ..indeed what you say is very true and i sometimes take the BBC forecasts to literally...indeed many times forecasts go wrong and we get a dumping of snow

http://www.metoffice...y-and-unsettled gives a bit of info based on previous charts, showing the Meso model than UKMO use.

Both the BBC National and local forecasts tend to be based on previous NAE Runs.

Thank you

[alijoe]

Okay but now i got doom and gloom for some users time to cheer you all up abit

firstly this low tonight should bring some interesting weather overnight

Heard gusts of 78mph in Sourthern Ireland

Hail, Thunder and lightning near Milford Haven

Any one able to confirm or any reports elsewhere keep them coming in

Secondly this low is still along way out

Now i am not a mean person so not going to hope our english friends miss out on the snow or our friends in Mid Wales

But we just do not for sure know where this low will track, 25 miles makes a huge difference and its got much more variables than 25 mile

I think those areas mentioned are most likely to get it even with flexibility in the path, but who knows

So my friends in South wales we wait and hope, trying not to wish so hard that our friends in mid and north wales lose out.

We can all meet on Brecon Beacons for a sledging race

Will polish my sledge with some wd40 and oil as I type ;-)<<<<<< bring it on

[pyrotech]

Will polish my sledge with some wd40 and oil as I type ;-)<<<<<< bring it on

You will need a little more than Wd40 to beat me, but you can have some fun trying

[WalsallWeather]

I'll be polishing my sledge too, just incase. It might be the best way to get to work! Situated on the top of a very steep hill it's never easy, even with the slightest bit of snow.

I'll be keeping an eye on this tomorrow after work, goodnight for now folks!

[alijoe]

You will need a little more than Wd40 to beat me, but you can have some fun trying

ohhhhhh I like nothing better than a challenge bring it onnnnnn

[pyrotech]

Might have some interesting news - give me 5 mins

[Wales123098]

Might have some interesting news - give me 5 mins

It's been 5 mins lol

[swales]

Might have some interesting news - give me 5 mins

You've won the euromillions and you're taking us all the the arctic?

[pyrotech]

The low currently over Southern Ireland was forecast (NAE) to cross directly over South Wales tonight, Now it seems to have shifted Northwards between 9pm and 10pm tonight. Not sure if a blip and will correct itself or not but on current path change it will be nearer North Wales

Problem is these hourly surface pressure charts can be a little out, but strange to move it suddenly North if thats the case. GFS did show it moving towards Midlands but NAE definitely had it centred over South Wales See Chart here and NaE here

Thats the thing with the wales regional area everyone is friendly and banter is fun, some other areas should pop in and see how it should be

Cymru am byth