Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[Scarlet_Snow]

You've won the euromillions and you're taking us all the the arctic?

Don't get my hopes up now will you!

Got a slight feeling the odds on pyrotech winning the euromillions are the same as us seeing snow here thursday night!

Edited December 14, 2011 by Scarlet_Snow

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just been reading the SW thread and people have been saying that Ian Ferguson said snow risk increased for them, has it increased for all of us too then?

[pyrotech]

Just been reading the SW thread and people have been saying that Ian Ferguson said snow risk increased for them, has it increased for all of us too then?

Jay, looks like its up the Brecon Beacons for us, Its not looking that likely for Cardiff on percipitation charts right now, but we have seen that before.

Alot can change, but i do not want to get you too excited as its probably at best 50/50

At least your " Will it snow in Cardiff? sentance has improved, nice to see you back, i know there is snow in the air when i see you on here

[J10]

Nmm for 3am, a slight snow for most of south wales, but very high over most of the South Wales Valleys.

(2am)

[Marcus_surfer]

Quite a bit of lightning to the north here, one cloud to ground lightning spotted..not much rain falling here though

[J10]

A bit of thunder and lightning here, anyone else getting it?

edit Marcus beat me to it. Rain has stopped here as well.

[Marcus_surfer]

A bit of thunder and lightning here, anyone else getting it?

edit Marcus beat me to it. Rain has stopped here as well.

A bit of thunder and lightning here, anyone else getting it?

edit Marcus beat me to it. Rain has stopped here as well.

A bit of thunder and lightning here, anyone else getting it?

edit Marcus beat me to it. Rain has stopped here as well.

Im looking at quite alot of flashes in the Morriston area, very odd that the rain does not look that heavy on the radar, ive spotted a lovely cloud to ground too!

[swales]

Very intense precipitation moved up from Llanelli>Pontarddulais>Bynamman

[valejack]

Very windy to lot of flashes also bit of mixed bag.Penlan area.

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyone seeing any snow in North Wales and what are the temps and dewpoints like please?

[rosgar]

Here in Chirk at 130m currently rain with maybe a sleety flake or two. Temperature is 2c, not sure about dewpoint but Shawbury and Hawarden both show 1c?

Virtually no wind here either.

Edited December 15, 2011 by rosgar

[alijoe]

just put the dog out to have a little widdle,,, very breezy here and rain and very cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

Thanks, i was just wondering if the unthinkable could happen and the PPN could turn wintry as it moves east.

[georgiedre]

It was 3c with rain but now clearing in nw wales

[Bonjangle]

just put the dog out to have a little widdle,,, very breezy here and rain and very cold.

Same here , but without the rain , hows Newport looking for the white stuff 2mozz then.? Looks like a wet one by the latest runs

[alijoe]

Wow, the winds here have really picked up since my last post. Even the dog keeps barking at the wind. But think it has stopped raining at the moment. brrrrr cold though.

[Gorath]

Anyone seeing any snow in North Wales and what are the temps and dewpoints like please?

No idea on the dewpoint, but it's currently 4 degrees, zero wind, zero rain just slightly north of Caernarfon.

We had a burst of strong wind and heavy rain at around 11pm, that lasted for about 20 minutes.

[loadsa]

Thunder and lightening in caerphilly

[Wales123098]

Tipping it down here with Thunder and Lightning. New fax charts out I believe can anyone offer an anaysis on them for Wales?

[Gorath]

Here goes. I'm sticking my neck out!...

18z FAX charts from Wednesday are the latest I can see - and they are almost bang-on with the MetO predictions.

Looks like a very slim chance of snow to Wales after midnight friday morning (/ Thursday night), with a slightly greater chance for you in the south. Still very marginal though.

There's a good chance of colder air being pulled down from the north after the system passes, which means lower temperatures, and a greater chance of any snowfall sticking around longer. It also means that any wintry precipitation that develops in the aftermath has a better chance of making it to lower ground. Say, below 300m.

Like I say though, very marginal. Don;t get your hopes up for the white stuff - but polish those sleighs / sledges ready just in case!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Morning all!

Just a quick update from me, it appears this southward trend of Tonights/Fridays low has continued as shown when comparing the 18z from last night to this mornings 0Z for the same time:

http://expert-images...121600_1418.gif < 18z

http://expert-images...121600_1500.gif < 0z

This will bring a greater chance of wintry precipitation/snow to south Wales....bar the coastal areas of the southwest where dewpoints will strugle to fall below freezing:

http://expert-images...121609_1500.gif

While the low is further south the fronts associated with it are shown to effect most of Wales still on the 0z NAE- so the risk of snow to N/Central & East Wales & into the Midlands is/has been consistent - What may prevent this is the low continued to be pushed southwards which has been a general theme in the models over the last few days.

[DeepSnow]

^^ does that mean that I may be in with a chance of some snow tonight?

Had some thunder and lightning wake me up at 1:10am thismorning, lasted for around 15mins and was unexpected!

[welshwizard]

Daybreak weather just showed rain turning to snow tonight into tomor morn but it did look like it was not coming right down,mid Wales looking i would say from the map shown the snow may go as far down as the valleys but may not even get that far by the map they showed,so looking like the far south is going to miss out. im may be wrong mind as i got bad eyes lol. good thing tho it looks like we will miss the real bad winds.

[DeepSnow]

Daybreak weather just showed rain turning to snow tonight into tomor morn but it did look like it was not coming right down,mid Wales looking i would say from the map shown the snow may go as far down as the valleys but may not even get that far by the map they showed,so looking like the far south is going to miss out. im may be wrong mind as i got bad eyes lol. good thing tho it looks like we will miss the real bad winds.

Yes I saw this too, although some in the model thread, as SnowStorm above has said, it appears to be slightly further south which may give us more of a chance! One can hope anyway

[mikeocarroll]

I think for tonight we've got about as far as the models can tell us, and now it's down to nowcasting, looking at the satellite and radar etc. There's a chance of snow pretty much anywhere, though reduced further north as precipitation is less, and reduced further south and coastal areas as temps and dewpoints may be too high. The Beacons and the tops of the valleys look like the optimum location for snow at the moment, but we'll just have to wait and see, it could go either way.

Still looks pretty good for snow showers over the weekend, best for north and west coasts but hopefully a few will reach further inland.

Rain here at the moment with bits of hail mixed in. Still lying snow above about 450 metres.