Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[CardiffStorm]

Looks like Mid-Wales is going to get the worst of it early Friday morning. The latest NAE run is now taking the snowfall further South through Friday morning and into Friday afternoon.

I think even where the snow does fall it wont last very long with some rain following on Friday night/Saturday morning.

As @mikeocarroll says its going to be a case of nowcasting and watching the radar.

[Snowmadsam]

well the BBC charts look good for me...until rain comes in at 8am (hoping this will turn to snow or wet snow!)

Radar tonight then...

[swales]

High res nmm. Hope NW don't mind me posting it...

Edited December 15, 2011 by shaunwales

[loadsa]

well Wales warnings have gone off the Met Office

[Marcus_surfer]

well Wales warnings have gone off the Met Office

Wow metoffice really like to change their warnings alot dont they?

[Scarlet_Snow]

Wow metoffice really like to change their warnings alot dont they?

That's strange....why would they take it off completely all of a sudden :huh:

[Marcus_surfer]

That's strange....why would they take it off completely all of a sudden :huh:

They could be updating it...then again they are taking a while

They could be updating it...then again they are taking a while

Updated now to amber warning

[Scarlet_Snow]

aha! Marcus you were correct, the warnings have returned! Amber warning covering parts of east wales

[Marcus_surfer]

aha! Marcus you were correct, the warnings have returned! Amber warning covering parts of east wales

Yeah Seems they have had warnings out in the past for east wales and further west we have had snow on occasion interesting how this will play out later.

[DeepSnow]

I like how they warning covers more of south wales now too, with north bridgend covered so gives me a bit more hope to see snow! Looking better than it was thismorning!

[swales]

Yeah Seems they have had warnings out in the past for east wales and further west we have had snow on occasion interesting how this will play out later.

That's true...

Like others have said, nowcasting is probably the best thing to do later because precipitation is hard to forecast.

What time approximately will the cold air start to feed in to Wales?

[WalsallWeather]

The MetOffice's warning seems to be focused on mid and east Wales. Maybe I will miss out!

[Cwmbran Eira]

It looks like being more marginal now. The BBC are mixing it up with rain in many places so could be more sleet than anything

Edited December 15, 2011 by Cwmbran Eira

[mikeocarroll]

That's true...

Like others have said, nowcasting is probably the best thing to do later because precipitation is hard to forecast.

What time approximately will the cold air start to feed in to Wales?

Temp has dropped here from 6.0c (highest in 3 days!) to 4.6c in the last 90 mins so some cold air feeding in already. That should continue throughout the afternoon followed by a slight warm up as the depression reaches the channel, then it should start raining and gradually turn to snow (hopefully). The precipitation associated with the low should reach the south wales coast about 7.00pm tonight and extend to mid wales by about 9.00pm. The most likely time for snow is between about midnight and 6.00am, after that the precipiation band moves away eastwards and there is also a slight warm up, aided by the transition to daytime.

[Snowmadsam]

It looks like being more marginal now. The BBC are mixing it up with rain in many places so could be more sleet than anything

The BBC always do that don't worry (they did it to me last year) woke up and massive covering of snow

[worldairgroup]

hi all, pyro, andymusic! hope your all well - well its that time of year again for me to poke my nose in and see whats going on!! any interesting updates/predictions for pontypridd tomorrow?

[Bobby]

Looking at the set up and going by past experience, I expect some slush outside in the morning and maybe some proper white on the mountains, would be surprised if there's anything more than that. So people shouldn't get too excited because there'll probably be dissapointment.

Hope I'm wrong but that's my honest appraisal of the situation.

For what it's worth

[Jackfrost]

Agree with Barb. A sleet/wet snow/slush event seems most likely away from the Heads of the Valleys, Beacons etc.

[Scarlet_Snow]

I think it's time andy got those famous charts out again!

They may not be that good but its always interesting to see what they show haha

[Coast]

The Met Office has upgraded snow warnings for parts of Wales into Friday morning.

Forecasters say there is potential for travel disruption as over 10cm (4in) of snow could fall on higher ground.

Areas which could be affected include the south Wales valleys, the hills of mid Wales, the Black Mountains and the Brecon Beacons. Meanwhile, a lightning strike is continuing to cause delays to south Wales rail services.

Signalling equipment was damaged in the Llantrisant area causing problems on the main line between Cardiff and Bridgend.The Met Office warned that heavy rain was likely to turn to snow early on Friday. Sleet is more likely on lower ground but snow has not been ruled out.

BBC Wales meteorologist Derek Brockway said: "Based on the latest information from the Met Office, the higher ground of south and mid Wales could be worst hit by snow but, of course, things could change with further updates later on Thursday. "There is still some uncertainty on the path of a deepening area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic. “A change in direction of just 50 to 100 miles north or south can make all the difference as to which part of Britain will get heavy rain, snow and severe galesâ€

"A change in direction of just 50 to 100 miles north or south can make all the difference as to which part of Britain will get heavy rain, snow and severe gales." Rain in Pembrokeshire will spread across the rest of Wales on Thursday evening and will turn increasingly to sleet and snow after midnight.

On the coast it will probably stay as rain or sleet, but may turn to snow inland. The Met Office has now issued a stronger amber [be prepared] snow warning for parts of Wales, while a yellow [be aware] warning remains in place in some areas. The warnings take into account how likely snow is and the potential impact the expected conditions may have. Parts of mid Wales, the south Wales valleys and Monmouthshire could have 2-5cm of snow (1-2in). More than 10cm (4in) is possible on higher ground such as the heads of the valleys, the Black Mountains, the Brecon Beacons and the hills of mid Wales.

While the wintry weather continues, police are advising drivers to ensure they have plenty of fuel in the tank, fully charge their mobile phones before setting off, and to carry warm waterproof clothing, food, water and a torch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...-wales-16202758

[Gorath]

Oddly, the MetO's observations show that it's been snowing in Capel Curig, Snowdonia this afternoon. I wouldn't have called that.

[DeepSnow]

It is nice to see the temperature dropping, now 5.6C here. Hope it continues! Even if the lower ground below 100M doesn't get anything tonight, I have seen in the stratosphere temperature watch of it showing signs of warming, which could be good for us in the new year!

[mikeocarroll]

3.2c here now, dropping steadily... seems generally to have been snow here over the last couple of weeks when the air temp has been around 2c or below, so not too much further to go according to that particular rule of thumb.

The precipitation is moving up over Cornwall now and a few bursts north of the main band in the Bristol Channel.

[Gavla]

How are the prospects for me seeing some of the white stuff tonight guys?. Still looking good or is just a case of waiting and seeing what you get?, I hate that, would like some confirmation if possible from someone more knowledgeable than me. Dont want to be on lampost watch and be disapointed. Thanks gavin

[swales]

4.1c here. Expecting rain, then more rain - possibly sleet if I'm lucky in the early hours.

Have fun everyone, whoever get's snow make the most of it for the rest of us who won't see any haha