Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

[Cheggers]

A rather chilly day. 4c and calm, but won't last as wind will start again later tonight.

[mardatha]

For southern Scotland Cheggers?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

ECM has been improving in terms of cold/snow potentail, with the 00Z this morning not bad at all.

Wed storm brings in cold behind it:

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111227/00/ecmt850.048.png

which hangs around until friday/saturday:

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111227/00/ecmt850.072.png

Before another quite mild sector swings in briefly later in the weekend:

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111227/00/ecmt850.120.png

Then the trend is for cold polar maritime again well into FI:

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111227/00/ecmt850.144.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111227/00/ecmt850.168.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111227/00/ecmt850.192.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111227/00/ecmt850.216.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111227/00/ecmt850.240.png

Models keep suggesting moves to a more negative NAO which of course is what we want for good old blocking. I just hope this acutally will come off at some point soon!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[Cheggers]

For southern Scotland Cheggers?

Indeed, but not as bad as Bawbag, but more so than the last two days. Worst I think is NW areas, but still not going to be nice anywhere really.

[mardatha]

ok ta Might go to supermarket tonight then ..

[Cheggers]

Amber alerts now issued. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/ta_forecast_warnings.html

[lorenzo]

ECM has been improving in terms of cold/snow potentail, with the 00Z this morning not bad at all.

Models keep suggesting moves to a more negative NAO which of course is what we want for good old blocking. I just hope this acutally will come off at some point soon!

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

Two excellent points here SS, and ECM subject of much bluster on the Model Output thread today, for what it is worth I have always given this model preference over the others as the GFS for me is a bit jumpy at times !

At last it seems this everlasting +ve NAO is moving toward neutral at least then hopefully into negative territory, with the AO following suit it is slowly evolving.. talk about a painstaking evolution to cold.

The Stratosphere needs another stone in the pond to create the ripple effect we need to tip the Vortex over the edge, combine that with a more favourable MJO position and hey presto plunged into the freezer..

Interesting ideas beginning to fly around on the many ensemble runs now too that oppose the rigid Bartlett regime, models are getting interesting again.

With the trend being for patterns wanting to remain in place for weeks at a time, let's hope the cold blast decides to entrench itself for a similar time frame.

Oh and to add to that a couple of decent CMEs on Xmas Day- who knows if they have any telling on our current model situation !

[howham]

Will get a chance to upload my weather data from the past few days later today but it looks like today is around 10 degrees colder than the previous two.

[skyeblue]

I see little bro bawbag is about to strike soon

On the sat pic its rapping up nicely

Time. For indoors l think

stay safe troops

[Cheggers]

Damp and cold now, temp topped 6c but now dropping a little. Time to start tying up those trampolines, and hiding the wheelie bins, as it's going to get a wee bit brisk overnight.

[skyeblue]

Sat 24 she a wee cracker

We r in for a hiding chaps

[Hairy Celt]

Cool, grey & quiet today, time to prepare for the ritual, fortnightly beating tomorrow.

No trampoline so that's ok. Wheelie bins strapped in, ok. Bairns in their cots, ok. Neighbours chained to the rocks just below high water line, ok.

[lorenzo]

Now reading 981 mbs this one will be packing a similar punch to bob agg ! Met Office have this deepening further to 972.

Looking impressive on satellite.

Wind profile intense on NMM.

Looks like the bridges will be restricted if not shut tomorrow.

Just when is this Atlantic conveyor belt going to give up and quit !?

[Poots]

Still 8.9c here, SWW breeze, but very calm. No need for us to tie stuff down, it's still done from the last time. Don't see the point in putting everything back out if this is going to keep happening. Looks like it's going to be another interesting day here tomorrow, but I'd like to see the back of these gales now and have some of the white stuff.

[snowy owl]

Been a busy and interesting day. Flat calm and quite nice when out for a walk. Let the chooks out for a roam since they will be confined to quarters tmrw - bad move though as someone had left a gate open and one of the chooks was munched by a dog!! seems the chook has lost a lot of her feathers but is still here to tell the tale - lets hope the shock doesn't get her later.

Not looking forward to more wind tomorrow - in fact i'm getting pretty fed up of it! Roll on some snow. Much ado in the model thread so think i will stay out of it for now as things get a bit heated when the models aren't all showing a similar evolution. Hoping that there may be a sniff of some snow potential soon. Maybe thurs will throw us ssome interest after the wind!!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

ECM subject of much bluster on the Model Output thread today, for what it is worth I have always given this model preference over the others as the GFS for me is a bit jumpy at times !

Aye, me too.

The 12Z GFS looks more like the 00Z ECM in terms of colder air an avoidance of warm sectors. The GFS does tend to over egg the power of low pressure systems...

Will be interesting to see what the ECM 12Z will bring today. looking not bad so far.

[mardatha]

Me too Owl, am desperate for snow !!

[lorenzo]

It's going to take a wee bit time to get out of this..

Looking at this chart this is exactly what we need - the ridge in the Pacific building heights and a pre-cursor to Stratospheric Warming.

Between that HP and the Russian high then hopefully this PV can take the hint !

The trough at 168 across the US should help amplify the Jet Pattern, but at this timeframe we are on the edge of FI and more runs needed.

At least hints of something different..

[edo]

8 degrees here just now which is the highest it's been all day....very very calm before the storm that will probably finish the trampoline off once and for all....duvet day with the kids beckons

[Cheggers]

Temp back up to 7C, drizzle and wind has started to pick up a wee bit. Expect to wake to it howling through here.

[milkmaid]

we are now at top gust 64 mph

south south east

it's mizzling

1002.9mb

temp is 8.5 rising

[snowy owl]

morning all, getting pretty windy already - not looking forward to later on!

Models seems as confused as ever this morning?! Seems some potential for snow next week from ECM. Probably only for higher areas.

[blitzen]

Temp 5.7c with dew point of -1.9c. Highest gust so far 44.9mph. It's going to be a windy one! I liked the look of the ECM this morning. Pretty chilly (and windy) most days next week. UKMO had the jet running a tad more south also. We will see what GFS coughs up but I think things looking a bit more hopeful of a change this morning.

[aggy]

huge diffrence between met o and net weather forecast have us fown for 69mph and met o 80mph . wait and see

[Poots]

Currently 5.6c here and pressure is 987 hPB, wind chill is 1.7c, gust max 49mph at the moment.