Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

[lorenzo]

It could still happen. This chart on the same day in 1983 doesn't look all that different to what we have now and led to the snowiest January I can ever recall. Spot the difference! If anything, the PV was even stronger. I would love to be able to see the northern hemisphere charts around that time to see how it transpired!

That is an interesting analog, looking at how January 1984 evolved also makes for some pleasurable viewing for those wanting to look out those sledges. Also a Nina year and similar values to now.

05th Jan that year shows a similar position to the 12z GFS with a lobe of the PV digging South east into Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840105.gif

How it moves forward from there is beyond my experience in looking at the models. Still one to match in the weeks ahead.

Quite a strong NW flow in this one !

[blitzen]

Am I off on one, or are the height rises over the Aleutian? Islands in Alaska what Steve Murr was hoping to see? FI yes, starting at 288 through 384. Couldn't that, if it continued, split the vortex sending a lobe towards Scandanavia and the other lobe west? Dunno, not that good at reading the charts. All doom and gloom on the MOD but is that because things are not happening within the next week or so?I don't think GP or Chiono were expecting anything sooner anyway.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Blitzen

[Guest]

A sleety shower heading across the centre of Central Scotland, get those lampposts on full standby!!!

[Cheggers]

A sleety shower heading across the centre of Central Scotland, get those lampposts on full standby!!!

Will only be rain here, been rain all afternoon, and temp has dropped from 3C to 0.5C, but still the same, only saw sleet earlier on Kincardine.

[West Highland Storm]

In Govan its gone from 15 all the way down to minus 2, currently.

[Northern Strath]

currently 1.5C and snowing. Wind picked up a fair bit in the last hour too

[snowy owl]

That is an interesting analog, looking at how January 1984 evolved also makes for some pleasurable viewing for those wanting to look out those sledges. Also a Nina year and similar values to now.

05th Jan that year shows a similar position to the 12z GFS with a lobe of the PV digging South east into Europe.

http://www.wetterzen...00119840105.gif

How it moves forward from there is beyond my experience in looking at the models. Still one to match in the weeks ahead.

Quite a strong NW flow in this one !

Really interesting read about previous La nina years. Some of which is well beyone my understanding.

However as i recall after a warm christmas of 83 we experienced much of a turnaround fairly quickly into January and certainly by mid month we had drifting snow and lots of days with falling snow and snow lying for a long period.

So all in all. As GP and others have stated. Once some of the pieces of this weather jigsaw start to fall into place then maybe Just MAYBE we'll see another Jan 84

Edited December 29, 2011 by snowy owl

[blitzen]

So all in all. As GP and others have stated. Once some of the pieces of this weather jigsaw start to fall into place then maybe Just MAYBE we'll see another Jan 84

Oh you tease!! :lol:

[BleakMidwinter]

Pah.

and Bah humbug, while I'm at it.

Dry, bright, overcast, light drizzle, occasional rain showers.

not even one snowflake.

::crawls off to sob pitifully, wistfully and yearningly over a picture of last December::

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Straw clutching?:

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20111229/12/prmslReyjavic.png

Ensembles have been showing indications of wanting pressure rises over greenland recently.

Which agrees with others talking about a weakening of the polar vortex / a split which could favour height rises to the NW.

[Guest]

Straw clutching?:

http://hw.nwstatic.c...mslReyjavic.png

Ensembles have been showing indications of wanting pressure rises over greenland recently.

Which agrees with others talking about a weakening of the polar vortex / a split which could favour height rises to the NW.

It's written in the stars SS, GP said this would happen in the second half of January, winter will arrive. Keep the faith.

[A Winter's Tale]

I've got a question for the experienced and the wise. Has a Scandi Hi ever brought any snow or proper cold to Scotland? I know that we tend to end up drier as we're closer to the high pressure but surely if an area of high pressure further north over Scandinavia would bring those easterlies further north. But I would assume that a Greenie HI is better for us to get our proper cold and snow.

[Guest]

I've got a question for the experienced and the wise. Has a Scandi Hi ever brought any snow or proper cold to Scotland? I know that we tend to end up drier as we're closer to the high pressure but surely if an area of high pressure further north over Scandinavia would bring those easterlies further north. But I would assume that a Greenie HI is better for us to get our proper cold and snow.

For technical reasons I don't have many charts to post but I'm pretty sure a Scandi can do it for us. Much better to have a Greenie though, I feel.

[Norrance]

If we can repeat Jan 1984 it would do for me. Something like this perhaps. Note the high to the North of Norway AWT.

Re your question it all depends on how they are aligned. Eastern Scotland can do well from a Scandy high sometimes.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Norrance

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I've got a question for the experienced and the wise.

That rules me out then...

For me, Greenie highs are better as they bring sustained cold by blocking the Atlantic while encouraging N-NE-E flow. They can be very stable and long lived too.

Scandi highs can potentially deliver big time but really have to be positioned so perfectly to bring snow as well as cold. Even the better ones tend to favour the SE of the British Isles; that's why they are so popular on the model thread....

It's written in the stars SS, GP said this would happen in the second half of January, winter will arrive. Keep the faith.

LOL, you know me CMD. I'll be here to the bitter end, even past that!

Edited December 29, 2011 by scottish skier

[Norrance]

Was Mid Jan 1987 not a Scandy high? It brought deep convectional snowfall to Eastern Scotland [and through the Central belt]. As SS said though they are not likely to last without the help of HP to the NW as well. The 1987 one didn't stay long anyway but was great while it lasted.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Norrance

[snow1975]

This one was almost too far north.

Edited December 29, 2011 by snow1975

[LomondSnowstorm]

I've got a question for the experienced and the wise. Has a Scandi Hi ever brought any snow or proper cold to Scotland? I know that we tend to end up drier as we're closer to the high pressure but surely if an area of high pressure further north over Scandinavia would bring those easterlies further north. But I would assume that a Greenie HI is better for us to get our proper cold and snow.

For sustained cold at least you need it to get at least as far as Iceland, otherwise the jet tends to end up sinking the high. '47 certainly began with the formation of a Scandi High http://www.wetterzen...00119470126.gif but that pattern would've toppled had it not retrogressed to greenland http://www.wetterzen...00119470203.gif

Short sharp cold bursts like 1987 can stem from Scandinavian highs, and certainly if you're looking for a major easterly convective dumping it's certainly one of the best set ups to get but further west and for longer term prospects Greenlandic/Iceland Highs are better.

Anyway, this has slipped under our collective radar: http://expert-images...123018_2912.gif

It could only last as snow for maximum of about 3 hours as >0C uppers move in by 6pm http://expert-images...123018_2912.gif

It does show however that only a few hours of surface cold can change what would normally be considered an all rain event into something potentially interesting.

Was Mid Jan 1987 not a Scandy high? It brought deep convectional snowfall to Eastern Scotland [and through the Central belt]. As SS said though they are not likely to last without the help of HP to the NW as well. The 1987 one didn't stay long anyway but was great while it lasted.

It was indeed, a true example of a Scandi High that gives snowfall but doesn't even make an impression on Greenland. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870113.gif

Edited December 29, 2011 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest]

LOL, you know me CMD. I'll be here to the bitter end, even past that!

Me and you both, thanks for the chat the other night. You still haven't given advice on my potential move down your way....

Could be interesting. I am trying to switch my brain round to Borders thinking, I love the way the local radio gives the sunset time and the sheep forecast My west coast ways will die hard

For sustained cold at least you need it to get at least as far as Iceland, otherwise the jet tends to end up sinking the high. '47 certainly began with the formation of a Scandi High http://www.wetterzen...00119470126.gif but that pattern would've toppled had it not retrogressed to greenland http://www.wetterzen...00119470203.gif

Short sharp cold bursts like 1987 can stem from Scandinavian highs, and certainly if you're looking for a major easterly convective dumping it's certainly one of the best set ups to get but further west and for longer term prospects Greenlandic/Iceland Highs are better.

Anyway, this has slipped under our collective radar: http://expert-images...123018_2912.gif

It could only last as snow for maximum of about 3 hours as >0C uppers move in by 6pm http://expert-images...123018_2912.gif

It does show however that only a few hours of surface cold can change what would normally be considered an all rain event into something potentially interesting.

It was indeed, a true example of a Scandi High that gives snowfall but doesn't even make an impression on Greenland. http://www.wetterzen...00119870113.gif

I love the way, LS, that you gave the scientific answer to my earlier shrug of "aye, Scandi can do it but what you want is a Greenie".

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Me and you both, thanks for the chat the other night. You still haven't given advice on my potential move down your way....

Could be interesting. I am trying to switch my brain round to Borders thinking, I love the way the local radio gives the sunset time and the sheep forecast My west coast ways will die hard

I'm a borderer of just 4 years. I'm only now just accepted in the local; used to be when I opened the door the music stopped and everyone would turn to stare in my direction.

And that's for a teuchter - for a West coastie it could be torches and pitchforks at midnight if you're not careful. :lol:

[NorthernRab]

I've got a question for the experienced and the wise. Has a Scandi Hi ever brought any snow or proper cold to Scotland? I know that we tend to end up drier as we're closer to the high pressure but surely if an area of high pressure further north over Scandinavia would bring those easterlies further north. But I would assume that a Greenie HI is better for us to get our proper cold and snow.

What is interesting is that last December the Greenland High brought largely N and NErly winds (as is the case with Greenies), but December is when the Arctic is actually at its least cold in the winter. I'd imagine a Greenland High in February would be particularly fierce.

I'm a borderer of just 4 years. I'm only now just accepted in the local; used to be when I opened the door the music stopped and everyone would turn to stare in my direction.

And that's for a teuchter - for a West coastie it could be torches and pitchforks at midnight if you're not careful. :lol:

I remember when my sister's husband first visited us and was very amused by picking up Radio Nan Gaidheal, seeing people play shinty at Kingussie, driving through heavy snow on Slochd and hearing a few teenagers playing the box and fiddles on Falcon Square in Inverness, all in one journey!

[snow freak]

will this boring mild weather never stop?..... probably not. I hate it.

[damianslaw]

Some great posts in this thread today - beats reading the england threads which are all doom and gloom.

The easterly of Jan 87 was a true rare beast - not often do they ridge all the way towards iceland and this was the reason for its potency. The feb 91 scnadi high had less ridging and thus was less severe especially in Scotland with snow limited to eastern parts.

Greenland highs deliver the true winter goods to Scotland as we saw to great affect last december and during late dec 09/early jan 10.

[snowy owl]

This is a very jolly thread and we are eternally optimistic - well most of the time lol!

We are very patient and prepared to wait for some cold to arrive.

Its also nice to share our discussion group with new friends from other groups

[spindrift1980]

Some great posts in this thread today - beats reading the england threads which are all doom and gloom.

The easterly of Jan 87 was a true rare beast - not often do they ridge all the way towards iceland and this was the reason for its potency. The feb 91 scnadi high had less ridging and thus was less severe especially in Scotland with snow limited to eastern parts.

Greenland highs deliver the true winter goods to Scotland as we saw to great affect last december and during late dec 09/early jan 10.

I presume there isn't a great deal of snow on the Lakeland fells at the moment? Enjoyed some fine snowy conditions in the Lakes in the winters of 09/10 and 10/11. Will be down for a weekend of walking/scrambling on 20/21 January - all to play for before then. Struggling to motivate myself to get out on the Scottish hills at the moment due to ever-changing conditions and lengthy driving distances needed to find proper winter conditions