Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[Tim Bland]

2 posts an hour after the 18z comes out at the end of December...says it all really! I gues those wishing for a pattern change get their way at the end of this run but it's not the change we want! Can GP come to the rescue here with promise for a change at the end of Jan or should I stock up on Prozac for NW snow lovers!

[bluearmy]

2 posts an hour after the 18z comes out at the end of December...says it all really! I gues those wishing for a pattern change get their way at the end of this run but it's not the change we want! Can GP come to the rescue here with promise for a change at the end of Jan or should I stock up on Prozac for NW snow lovers!

many members of the gefs continue to paint pretty pictures in fi. no panic as far as colder second half jan is concerned (for the time being)

[SxK]

I actually think 18z has huge potential past 300. Heights into Scandi with amplified jet! Anyway as you say unlikely to verify but thats the sort of thing i am looking for to spark an eventual change to cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 posts an hour after the 18z comes out at the end of December...says it all really! I gues those wishing for a pattern change get their way at the end of this run but it's not the change we want! Can GP come to the rescue here with promise for a change at the end of Jan or should I stock up on Prozac for NW snow lovers!

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2199541

Whilst its not a promise of a pattern change, no forecast is but it sounds like he sees no reason to amend his intitial forecast.

I actually think 18z has huge potential past 300. Heights into Scandi with amplified jet! Anyway as you say unlikely to verify but thats the sort of thing i am looking for to spark an eventual change to cold.

I am not a big fan of mid latt highs but im sure i have seen synoptical setups in the past where charts like the T384 have ended up delivering potent cold a week later, im not saying thats what will happen though, as it probably wont even verify anyway. It does look slightly more buckled than anything up to that point.

Edited December 29, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Well, suprise suprise the 18z run was at the top end for 850's with the majority of the other runs below the average. There is certainly some increasing colder runs now showing. I would still say though that the likely hood for average temperatures for the next few weeks remains at present.

http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

Edited December 29, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[weather_it_will]

Guys what i don't understand is that if all the main models not forecasting any blocking how come then most membors keep on going on about this cold an snow from mid jan?

It is called hopecasters.

There is no sustained cold weather in the models until at least mid January.

The same hopecasters were here last January predicting sustained cold and heavy snow which never happened.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

It is called hopecasters.

There is no sustained cold weather in the models until at least mid January.

The same hopecasters were here last January predicting sustained cold and heavy snow which never happened.

So what if it isnt sustained cold, all i want to see is a few snow showers

[TEITS]

It is called hopecasters.

There is no sustained cold weather in the models until at least mid January.

The same hopecasters were here last January predicting sustained cold and heavy snow which never happened.

Lets be fair I haven't really read anyone predicting any cold weather or snow during the next 10days. What most are eagerly looking for is a change in this dreadful pattern. Like I said last night we won't suddenly find the models predicting a severe cold spell because in my opinion the models don't go out far enough. Maybe in around 7-10 days time we may start to see some more interesting F.I charts on the GFS.

Speaking of F.I charts what I find incredible so far this winter is the sheer lack of mega cold synoptics in F.I. Normally the GFS produces one of these charts at +384 on a few occasions. Since mid November I cannot remember one GFS +384 chart that was predicting severe cold and that must be a first since I joined this forum.

Still I have been very impressed with GP so far and have no reason to doubt the rest of his forecast. All members should just accept that for the next 7 days the models are going to be boring if you're seeking a severe cold spell.

[Duane S.]

It is called hopecasters.

There is no sustained cold weather in the models until at least mid January.

The same hopecasters were here last January predicting sustained cold and heavy snow which never happened.

Firstly I unashamedly post with a glass-half-full menatility, that's in my nature, I love the cold and as a result my posts are always going to be cold biased but I hope with an objectional element.

I can understand what you are saying but trace back to early November and there was nothing to be excited about whatsoever. It was evident early on that we had a mountain to climb during early winter 2011. We had a remarkable December considering the state of the atmosphere in my opinion. That said, I remained downbeat until the past week or so, when to me, small green shoots have at last been appearing.

There have been a disturbing number of posts on this thread today back slapping and lauding certain mildies on some sort of 'done deal'. These leading to virtual lynch mobs calling for LRF'ers to 'rip up their forecast'. I'd ask why? Granted, take the charts of the past couple of days at face value and they have been downright awful but (and it's an old well-used chestnut) it is only December. Will this pattern be easy to shift? Hell no it won't and when the ECM showed a quick PV split very few people, including me, thought it was likely, it made little sense to happen that quickly but be aware, models have a habit of flashing up nice looking charts in FI, reverting back to zonal for a while then suddenly there they are at +150, bigger bolder and better than before. CFS aside the charts are only going out to mid Jan and GP, for example, has always mooted mid Jan-late Jan as the period to look for to get the ball winter rolling.

Of course there's an element of 'hopecasting' in all our posts I would imagine, it's human nature to make the cap fit to our own weather preferences to some extent but... as long as there are physical (no matter how tentative) signs to fit the teleconnections etc why not? We know that the reminances of the +QBO are all but out of the way, the strat has been immensely cold and yes the resultant PV will take some budging but a small warming is being followed by a bigger one then the likelehood is a bigger one afterwards. No cold guarantees, no instant northern blocking but some interesting chart viewing coming up for early Jan.

It's been going on for a while (or maybe it's just the runs I look at, which isn't all of them) that the GFS op seems to be right up there with the mild members whilst the mean very gradually (VERY gradually yes) drops in FI.

I posted the Rome SLP ens this morning which showed it as a clear outlier (I use to see if mean height propensity is lowering in Mid Europe). The 18z is not an outlier but yet again is off on it's on with little support. Who's right? Op vs ens, i'd weight it as 40/60 at best.

00z

18z

Not cherry picking, only had a chance to save these two but noticed at work that the 06z & 12z also seemed to follow this mild op trend.

Certainly some nicer looking FI member charts in deep FI and you'd have to think sooner or later we are going to get the op to go down that road, if only for a teaser.

Edited December 30, 2011 by s4lancia

[Daniel Miller]

It is called hopecasters.

There is no sustained cold weather in the models until at least mid January.

The same hopecasters were here last January predicting sustained cold and heavy snow which never happened.

Let's be honest, you can't say with any certainty what will happen mid January, and neither can the models.

GP's thoughts are a forecast, he isn't 100% sure. He is say what may be likely to happen.

Why do you say "the models say this" for a time that is weeks out?

I find it hard to take anyone seriously when they talk about what the models show in 3 weeks time. For long term, I would rather go on the thoughts of the knowledgeable people such as GP, Michael Fish and BFTP as they have a human input on matters.

Does anyone know how UKMO charts do for accuracy, out of interest?

[Snowy Easterly]

Lets be fair I haven't really read anyone predicting any cold weather or snow during the next 10days. What most are eagerly looking for is a change in this dreadful pattern. Like I said last night we won't suddenly find the models predicting a severe cold spell because in my opinion the models don't go out far enough. Maybe in around 7-10 days time we may start to see some more interesting F.I charts on the GFS.

Speaking of F.I charts what I find incredible so far this winter is the sheer lack of mega cold synoptics in F.I. Normally the GFS produces one of these charts at +384 on a few occasions. Since mid November I cannot remember one GFS +384 chart that was predicting severe cold and that must be a first since I joined this forum.

Still I have been very impressed with GP so far and have no reason to doubt the rest of his forecast. All members should just accept that for the next 7 days the models are going to be boring if you're seeking a severe cold spell.

Agree even when we had turgid mild winters at least FI showed mega cold synoptics on a few occasions, this winter there have hardly been any, why is this, is it because the GFS is better now and has a good handle on futures patterns i really don't know

Edited December 30, 2011 by Snowy Easterly

[syed2878]

Man! I hope we get a change in patern because this patern is becoming 1 boring. I hope we here at least c day or 2 of snow..

[Ruzzi]

Am I right in thinking that this is what we're looking for?

I know it's FI ofcourse but to me this has been the best outcome for quite a few runs now. It seems to completely split the vortex in 2, with high pressure ridging up from the Atlantic over Greenland and eventually linking with HP over the Arctic and Northern Russia, with a segment on the remaining PV directly over Scandi. Also, Is it a fair assessment to say that blocking appears more likely when the lows off the Eastern seaboard of America track South-North towards western Greenland, rather than heading NE or E into the Atlantic?

It will be interesting to see the ensembles to determine where this run lies after a lot of the recent runs have been on the mild side with very little (if any) support.

Edited December 30, 2011 by ruzzi (snowboy)

[snow drift]

It is called hopecasters.

There is no sustained cold weather in the models until at least mid January.

The same hopecasters were here last January predicting sustained cold and heavy snow which never happened.

Perhaps you could give me a link to your detailed LRF?

I would be interested to compare with GP's to see how they differ. I learn a huge amount from GP and others. Whether their LRF is correct or not all the back ground info and thoughts which give them the outcome they see is a great way to learn.

If as I expect, you do not have a link, then I would suggest you show some respect to ones who put time and effort into this site. How can one learn from someone who posts a mild looking chart and states that it won’t snow? The amount of people who have ago at GP JH etc without backing their thoughts is ridiculous. If you look back a couple of pages you will see two Net weather individuals discussing their opinions which are different. No rude remarks, no baiting, just a sensible discussion about their thoughts and possible outcomes. If you read through both posts (503 and 511) you can see where both are coming from and this helps to gain further learning for the less knowledgeable.

Edited December 30, 2011 by snow drift

[snowww]

january in my opinion would have to be the catalyst in this winter, there have been many hints in the charts of coldish uppers arriving in the uk, whether it will give us snow is hard to predict at this range, but what will happen is not in our control.

[The PIT]

Boring weather far from it. Another two very windy spells in the offering the first on the 3rd which will ensure that the first day back at work from new years will be far from uninteresting. Northern and central England could hit with some very damaging winds. More winds follow not as strong but could make repairing damage more tricky. Still out in FI but getting nearer the reliable time frame. No warnings as yet but keep an eye out for them.

For the hot or cold brigade where no hot == boring and no cold == boring just get some beer and keep away from the models for a bit..... You maybe sometime....

[Great Plum]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Once again, the 0z GFS ensembles show a different picture to the Op which remains (bar a brief northerly 330 hours out) one of the mildest.

The mean, once again dips below average on the 7th Jan and remains that way.

[Frosty.]

The models are definately trending colder beyond T+500 hours but more patience is required, but before then it's windy, mild and unsettled or windy, cool and unsettled with snow limited to northern hills and mountains, lots of rain and that's good news for the drought in eastern england at least.

[Frosty.]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= Once again, the 0z GFS ensembles show a different picture to the Op which remains (bar a brief northerly 330 hours out) one of the mildest. The mean, once again dips below average on the 7th Jan and remains that way.

a crumb of comfort in a very zonal and generally average outlook with mild weather in control for the south apart from cooler blips.

[mountain shadow]

a crumb of comfort in a very zonal and generally average outlook with mild weather in control for the south apart from cooler blips.

Trending colder in the later parts of ECM, GFS and GEFS. The ECM shows a decent disruption to the vortex opening up for a change mid month.

[Great Plum]

I have noticed PL, that the ensembles have trended below average after the 7th Jan for the last 5 days whilst the op has 'defaulted' to the mildest option... Which is right, I don't know!

[Frosty.]

I have noticed PL, that the ensembles have trended below average after the 7th Jan for the last 5 days whilst the op has 'defaulted' to the mildest option... Which is right, I don't know!

I wonder why the op's are always at the milder end of the ensembles day after day, hope our luck changes soon and mountain shadow makes a good point about a possible mid month pattern change with growing support but still too far out to probably affect what the meto updates have been saying recently.

[stewfox]

The models are definately trending colder beyond T+500 hours but more patience is required, but before then it's windy, mild and unsettled or windy, cool and unsettled with snow limited to northern hills and mountains, lots of rain and that's good news for the drought in eastern england at least.

Could you post a link that supports 'the trending towards colder' post T+500 otherwise people will just think another wind up post, many thanks.

[Cloud 10]

Interesting long range ensembles from the ECM 00z showing a definite cooling trend

as we head towards mid January.

[johnholmes]

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

little on this link nor the NOAA version last evening to suggest any major change to the current pattern in the next 15 days; the 'storm' in the reliable (supposedly) time frame, needs careful watching?

As with any major surface low development don't expect the details to be finalised until nearer T+00, both for its track and depth.

Edited December 30, 2011 by johnholmes