Atlantic Storms - January Part 2

[Zenarcher]

Met Office are giving me 72mph gusts for tonight.

3pm today the low is already moving in to the UK bringing around 45mph winds and gusts of 60mph. As forecast below,

6pm the wind will start to move inland over Ireland and Northern England I expect 40mph with gusts of 55mph for these parts and higher over the coasts and high ground. Meanwhile for Western Scotland they can expect the same wind speeds but gusts of 60mph is likely,

9pm to 12am during this time pretty much all of the UK and Ireland will be getting the wind at this point with 50mph and gusts around 60 to 70mph.

3am is the main concern as the wind will get stronger to 55mph with gusts around 65mph to 75mph. The area's at risk are Southern Scotland and Northern England at this time of the day.

6am the wind continues to increase as it moves further South and Northern England will be the most affected by this especially Eastern parts.55mph to 60mph mean speeds could be possible with gusts around 70mph to 80mph.

9am the wind will ease off over the UK as the storm heads into Europe,

As for the rain it will be from 3pm today to 3am this morning the heaviest will hang around Scotland and Northern England.

Some wintry weather may take place over the Highlands tomorrow and possibly over higher ground in Southern Scotland and Northern England.

I will update this again tonight.

Edited January 4, 2012 by weathermaster

[Isolated Frost]

L3 warning for strong winds in W and SW Scotland, Central Scotland, E and SE Scotland, N Ireland, NE England, NW England, Yorkshire and Humber, N and M Wales, S Wales, W Mids, E Mids, E of England, SE England.

L2 warning for strong winds in NE Scotland, Highlands and Islands, SW England.

L3 warning for accumulated rainfall in Highlands and Islands, W and SW Scotland, NW England, N and M Wales.

L2 warning for accumulated rainfall in NE Scotland, Central Scotland, N Ireland, S Wales.

L1 warning for accumulated rainfall in E and SE Scotland, NE England, Yorkshire and Humber, E Mids, E of England, SW England.

My warning forecast for the next 18 hours. Mesoscale events could easily alter this, but viewing the hi-res NMM has given me this expectation.

My warning system works from L1 as a slight precaution, L2 as be prepared, L3 is moderate-severe with potential damage, L4 is severe and poses a large threat to the public, and L5 is extreme.

[Coast]

Meteoalarm Europe latest:

Valid from 04.01.2012 14:00 CET Until 05.01.2012 01:00 CET

Wind Awareness Level: Yellow

Rain is now becoming persistent and heavier across western Scotland and northern and western parts of Northern Ireland. This will extend to western parts of Northern England and to much of Wales during the rest of the day. Winds will continue to increase with the risk of severe gales for coasts and hills during the evening. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption from localised flooding and also from the strong winds this evening.

http://www.meteoalarm.info/

I still envisage this moving down the Eastern coast during the early hours of tomorrow, around 03Z still being the key peak time

[bobbydog]

Meteoalarm Europe latest:

http://www.meteoalarm.info/

I still envisage this moving down the Eastern coast during the early hours of tomorrow, around 03Z still being the key peak time

looking at all the various warnings, i cant see it really affecting our little corner of the world

[Coast]

looking at all the various warnings, i cant see it really affecting our little corner of the world

I might get the effects of something coming up the Channel, but I suspect you're right, the most southerly this could go will be Essex, maybe the extreme tip of North Kent before it heads off to the low countries, It would be nice to have some convective stuff though, just don't rip up my neighbours dodgy adjoining fence until its fixed please!

[cyclonic happiness]

Nice to see that we haven't got any warnings here in the West Midlands again!

So going by the Met Office, can I assume that I won't be blown into oncoming traffic tonight and tomorrow?

I think that winds of 50mph in the part of Britain that rarely see gales should merit a weather warning?

We had trees down and debris flying all over the place yesterday and no warning?? and now they're gonna make the same mistake again less than 24 hours later??

I'm really quite angry about it!

Good job I have you guys to tell me what's really going on!

[Coast]

Latest GFS convective indications still on track for something quite big:

The gusts are still there!

SatRep has the front (and convective elements) moving into Scotland now:

With the first sign of sferics amongst it!

[Chris K]

They warned on BBC news a little earlier that the wind will funnel up the Bristol Channel/Severn Estuary for a while, potentially creating 60mph gusts. Considering I'm facing the Severn Estuary it could be more windy than yesterday here where I live, as we're a bit more sheltered from winds from other directions. I'd imagine disruption for the Severn Crossings will become evident. Especially the old crossing.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Bugganuts

[bobbydog]

I might get the effects of something coming up the Channel, but I suspect you're right, the most southerly this could go will be Essex, maybe the extreme tip of North Kent before it heads off to the low countries, It would be nice to have some convective stuff though, just don't rip up my neighbours dodgy adjoining fence until its fixed please!

actually, looking on the Meto interactive map, there's nothing spectacular forecast for anywhere in the next 12 hours. the odd stronger gust in some coastal locations and this is despite their own warnings!

Edited January 4, 2012 by bobbydog

[gottolovethisweather]

And now this.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alert;reg=7;sess=

Sounds like its still on for a lot of us.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[If Wishes made Weather]

It would appear from the GFS convective and gust indications that somewhere between the Thames basin into East Anglia is likely to have a wild time around 3z. Interesting though that the area is not under warning with these sort of numbers - 450+ Helicity, 80kts gusts ad significant shear. Looks worse for Germany though - my tip would be for severe weather the Hartz mountains which will force orographically.

[Coast]

It would appear from the GFS convective and gust indications that somewhere between the Thames basin into East Anglia is likely to have a wild time around 3z.

Netweather's own NMM charts have the gusts pretty much everywhere but the emphasis does seem to be generally in that area:

Sustained wind remains constant through the night and early hours into rush hour:

[Liam J]

Nothing really of note yet being recorded in terms of wind speeds and gusts, gusts generally in the 50's for the exposed locations atm and nothing really interesting over NW Scotland as the cold front moves ever closer.

The cooler 850 temps can be seen behind the frontal zone.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited January 4, 2012 by Liam J

[If Wishes made Weather]

Many thanks Coast - not often that we see this part of the world with the potential for gusts higher than in the channel.

[Coast]

More sferics now as the front moves in, might be interesting to see what the orographic effects (if any) are as it comes across Scotland

More on yesterday:

Strong winds bring down trees as the south coast is battered by storms

MUCH of the south coast was battered by gale-force winds and heavy rainfall today. PEOPLE across the region were today picking up the pieces after gale force winds and heavy rain battered the south coast. Trees were uprooted, roofs collapsed and signs were damaged as winds averaging 60mph ripped through Portsmouth and the surrounding area.At the height of the storm, gusts of 82mph were recorded by the Met Office between 12pm and 1pm.

In Southsea, neighbours reported seeing a ‘mini tornado’ rip tiles from roofs. John Munday, 72, of Fordingbridge Road, Southsea, had the back window of his car smashed by falling debris, and his bonnet was pitted with holes. ‘All the stones and tarmac from some of the nieghbours’s roofs was flying around,’ he said. ‘The wind was going round in circles and everything was caught up in it – it was like a tornado. ‘Lots of tiles were taken off people’s roofs and about six cars were done in. A chimney went through the back window of my neighbour’s car. ‘I’ve never seen anything like it. It was a fair old to-do.’ Firefighters were called to the street just after midday and spent over an hour fixing tarpaulin to some of the roofs to stop any more debris falling off.

The Met Office said the freak conditions were caused by a dramatic and sudden change in the atmosphere. Alison Richards, from the Met Office, said: ‘What was experienced in Southsea was a classic, violent change in atmospheric conditions. ‘The temperature dropped from 12C to 8C, there was gusts of up to 82mph and heavy rain at the same time, all this can give the impression of a hurricane. ‘It was caused by the front moving through which made the wind change direction. ‘As strong gusty winds change direction, it can create swirls and look like the wind is spinning, but it’s not.’

In Havant, three cars were crushed when branches were blown down in Wakeford Way. Hampshire County Council’s member for environment and transport Cllr Mel Kendal said: ‘A large tree broke away and fell on three cars. ‘The remaining part of the tree was identified as being at risk of falling and, as a precaution, the police cordoned off part of the highway so that the arboricuture team could carry out further investigation and take action to make it safe.’ Roads were closed while the work was done. The extreme weather started early this morning as torrential rain and high winds caused disruption to the roads, rail and sea. Portsmouth City Council said its helpdesk received 15 calls relating to trees falling, 10 to do with damage to fence panels and 11 for structures becoming dangerous. This included a report of a tree falling in New Road, near Kingston Cemetery, Buckland. Jon Saxty, 37, an engineer, of South Road, Buckland, had seen the damage first hand. He said: ‘I was coming back home after getting a McDonald’s for breakfast and saw this tree had fallen down. ‘I was quite fearful more trees would fall so I got back to my house pretty quickly. ‘It’s bizarre as Monday was so clear and this morning we woke up to gales.’

The A272 near West Meon was blocked due to several fallen trees and the A27 near Cams Hill was also partially blocked. Marcin Jedryciak, 28, a porter, of Knox Road, Stamshaw, said: ‘I saw very strong winds and decided to go to Southsea seafront to take pictures. ‘As I was going I saw signs had been blown away and some trees. I have lived here for six years and this is one of the worst storms I have seen.’ Trees also fell in Nutbourne Road, Farlington, and at the junction of West Lane and Havant Road, in Hayling Island. Motorists and commuters faced delays on what was the first day back to work and school for many after the Christmas break. Hovertravel suspended its service between Southsea and Ryde at 5.40am because of the treacherous conditions. It was fully restored just before 1.30pm. Southern Railway said train travel was disrupted because of trees being blown onto tracks and flooding from heavy rainfall. Late night services between London and Portsmouth were cancelled after a tree fell on the line. Trees had also fallen on the Portchester to Southampton route, which meant trains were being diverted to Portsmouth Harbour. The route between Havant and Southampton was blocked in both directions.

Some routes had delays of up to 50 minutes. Meanwhile, firefighters from Southsea and Cosham fire stations were called to the Debenhams store in Commercial Road, Portsmouth, after part of its sign was falling down. Two crews from Southsea – including the aerial ladder platform – were called to the rear of the store at 10am. Crew manager Chris Norgate said: ‘We were called to the store as the sign, which overlooks the car park in Surrey Street. ‘The sign was over three panels and two of them had come off because of the wind. We were called to get the third one down safely, which we did.’ The crew was then called to Squirrels antiques dealers in Kingston Road, Portsmouth, after a 15ft hole appeared in the roof of the flat above the store. Firefighters fitted plastic sheets over the roof. The chimney of a flat was damaged in High Street, and there was structural damage to a flat in Marine Parade, both in Lee-on-the-Solent. And customers visiting the Tesco store in Northarbour were forced to use a side entrance after glass in the main entrance popped out in the morning. Tesco engineers were working to fix the panels.

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/east-hampshire/strong_winds_bring_down_trees_as_the_south_coast_is_battered_by_storms_1_3381392

[Snowangel-MK]

....... just don't rip up my neighbours dodgy adjoining fence until its fixed please!

Too late for that here.......

....two sections of my neighbours dodgy fence are already down (I have a nice view of their summer house from my conservatory now though)

......so tonight it might be the other eight panels that fall....Great

[Liam J]

Significant damage through Scotland's Central Belt yesterday from the near hurricane force winds, have a look at these pictures!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16392381

Edited January 4, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Gale force winds batter South Coast

Published on Wednesday 4 January 2012 16:00

FESTIVITIES were brought to an abrupt end yesterday (January 3) as Eastbourne was battered by gale-force winds. Gusts of up to 70mph hit the south coast as the Christmas and New Year break came to an end. The powerful winds prompted a severe weather warning from the Met Office and Eastbourne was among many towns across the country to be on alert for high winds and rain. A spokesperson from East Sussex Fire and Rescue said the crews were prepared for weather-related callouts but had fortunately not received any calls to fallen trees or damaged buildings before the Gazette went to press.

However, firefighters were needed in Old Town after a trampoline was blown from a garden onto the roof of a house. A crew from Eastbourne went to the home in Upland Road and used an aerial ladder platform to remove the trampoline. A spokesperson from the Met Office said, “The winds will be strong enough to bring down the odd branches or even tree but they are not going to see widespread travel problems.â€

This is the second bout of stormy weather this winter. In the middle of December the Gazette reported high winds and heavy rain had caused damage to properties in the town. Hayley Roberts, from Grasmere Close, had a lucky escape when a tree from her neighbour’s garden fell in the wind and damaged her conservatory but missed her house by centimetres. Despite the high winds this winter, temperatures have been mild for the time of year. January is usually the coldest month with average temperatures between 0.5C to 3C.

But as the gales ripped through Eastbourne yesterday temperatures were around 11C. The weather will remain windy throughout the week but conditions are expected to be calmer with brighter weather on the way towards the end of the week.

http://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/local-news/gale_force_winds_batter_south_coast_1_3383675

[gottolovethisweather]

Significant damage through Scotland's Central Belt yesterday from the near hurricane force winds, have a look at these pictures!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16392381

OMG or something along those lines. I'm glad we didn't have to endure that, although it was certainly quite rough further south and more expected tonight. indeed.

Thanks for sharing.

Windy Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 4, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Liam J]

OMG or something along those lines. I'm glad we didn't have to endure that, although it was certainly quite rough further south and more expected tonight. indeed.

Thanks for sharing.

Windy Regards

gottolovethisweather

Nothing like as severe as yesterday, that was exceptional!

Wind is certainly picking up here just recently and it's absolutely hammering with rain, I expect the river levels will be rising and making many people in flood prone areas rather nervous around here.

[The PIT]

Fairly quiet here at the moment. Met Office a short while ago mentioned 60 mph due to Lee winds on the eastern side of the pennines. We shall see later no doubt.

[mardatha]

Blowing like hell here now and heavy rain.

[Liam J]

Gusts are now reaching 50mph, chimney starting to howl.

NAE 12z is progging very strong winds later this evening inland over Southern Scotland and Northern England with mean speeds 35-40mph overland and 40-45mph mean speeds on the coast perhaps slightly higher.

[Cheese Rice]

Fairly quiet here at the moment. Met Office a short while ago mentioned 60 mph due to Lee winds on the eastern side of the pennines. We shall see later no doubt.

50-60 MPH winds here, torrential rain very windy indeed.

Amazing how much a few miles can make.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Love Snow]

Really picked up in Leeds at the minute heavy Rain and Gusty winds blowing like crazy