Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[saintssupporter]

i dont think the models are taking into account the warming stratosphere and the effect that is going to have plus the AO is be forecasted to have a large dip soon in the negative area and so is the NAO is also going negative and staying there so i am looking forward to tomorrows models and see if the actually take this into account

[nick sussex]

At six hours we have this.......

http://www.meteociel...p?&ech=6&mode=0

At 384 hours we have this.......

http://www.meteociel...&ech=384&mode=0

Fair to say, another poor run. That said it is only one run and fortunately this will be gone by the morning

I have a feeling that there will be some twists and turns yet!

Jason

Do you know the chances of that 384hrs lower resolution chart verifying? Zero thats the correlation using the day ten which is around 0.4 as a baseline which has already dropped from 0.8 at day 6.

Cold or mild post 240hrs lower resolution output is basically rubbish, stick to the higher resolution of the GFS and see if theres a recurring trend over the day/s.

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to be frank--- that video is pretty low level .....- Im not knocking the actual bloke- its not personnal- but he spends 9 minutes going on about the deep trough cant go away & look for it moving west then at 8:43 his last chart shows the trough blown away back to moscow with an overunning pattern.. it isnt going ot back west unless theres a wedge of high pressure over the top moving that circulation-

Also a cold greenland has a very low teleconnection correlation to a greenland high -

Most weather enthusiast on here could whip something up better than that- perhaps I should bring back the model tracker!

he makes some valid points however theres nothing in it that hasnt already been written on here day in day out---

S

I was going to say something myself but i dont want to be overly critical when im only a novice myself, but he can go on and on about that cold air but it will remain there unless we get a southerly tracking LP or an atlantic low ejecting a shortwave to the south, and preferably with high heights to the North east.

[ukpaul]

Quite a few ensemble members looking to eject the low south eastwards at 90h, quite a few succeed, something to look for in the reliable timeframe.

Edited January 10, 2012 by ukpaul

[Snowmad79]

Latest video update from Mark Vogan on the current model situation regarding the upcoming pattern change, wise words from this man.

This guy described winds just north of west as SWerlies and then called Scandinavia/ Russia....... ASIA (6mins in).Then says LP dragging cold air round the perhihery of Greenland to Iceland is a key signature of a negative nao.

Edited.. a bit harsh on an a fellow amatuer

Edited January 10, 2012 by Snow Time 79

[Jason M]

Poor in terms of cold/snow delivered, much better in terms of the PV backing away westwards from G/L and allowing the Arctic high to position itself more favourably. I may be in the minority but this run is the best of the day in terms of potential.

Yes, fair point. I actually don't have much faith in the mid long term output at present. Its all over the place. On that basis i'm not overly fussed tonight and we move onto tommorow. Were now looking out towards 25th onwards though, so the clock is ticking. Feb can deliver, but towards the end of feb the sun comes into play and it gets much harder to get ice days. Still time though.

[Zakos]

Mark vogan is correct in saying that the models arent handling the current situation well because of the strato warming etc... His idea of an easterly somewhere down the line is also what i think. But he shouldnt use charts which dont back up what hes saying. Mark vogan is an amatuer, and he gave it his best shot, and was fairly accurate About the stormy weather in Dec. he was certainly much more accurate than james madden, and much more gracious in defeat than james.

[Jason M]

Do you know the chances of that 384hrs lower resolution chart verifying? Zero thats the correlation using the day ten which is around 0.4 as a baseline which has already dropped from 0.8 at day 6.

Cold or mild post 240hrs lower resolution output is basically rubbish, stick to the higher resolution of the GFS and see if theres a recurring trend over the day/s.

Yes, I know, hence me saying it will be gone by the morning. Sorry should have used a smiley .

[SMU]

A few nice ptb's running out

4 & 6 with lots of Scandi WAA at 140 ish-

An interesting slant on the outcome from PTB 8 with an undercut ( which has to happen at some point) 7 a bit of a loop jet over scandi over 150-

PTB 13 at 180 Scandi WAA- & 15 & 16

the 18z ensembles arent actually that bad with some undercutting snow examples .. I will post one more comment why in a min

S

[damianslaw]

Last post from me this evening - and I won't be back until Thursday eve.

GFS and ECM keen on maintaining deep euro trough held in situ as we head into next week, and the jetstream profile charts continue to suggest strong amplification of the atlantic trough with the jet on a NW-SE tilt - common sense as the euro trough will prevent the jet from taking a steamroller run into scandi and west russia, everything will be forced to shift SE into SE Europe propping up the euro trough- this is an important development as it does signify a pattern change of sorts to what we have been used to in recent weeks.

Whilst next week may well delivered further unsettled conditions it is unlikely to bring the very mild conditions of recent weeks, indeed the chances of some proper cold zonality look very plausible with snow risk for the north I imagine with the passage of strong cold fronts and steep temp gradients and polar maritime air. I still believe a weakening PV will eventually enable mid atlantic heights to quickly ridge north towards Greenland and provided those arctic heights remain in situ then bingo we have the link up needed for proper cold, may take another bite at the cherry but I see this as the evolution to cold not a scandi high - that will only occur once this evolution occur - this synoptical evolution will aid cut off lows to our SW and the potential battleground snowfall attacks - but this is a while off yet.

[Duane S.]

Does anybody know if the same starting point adjustment on each of the 20 member runs is the same each time? Maybe it's my imagination but during the lead-up to this pattern change the good runs always seem to come from the same member numbers. i.e. 7 and 13 are a couple of the usual suspects.

[SMU]

yes ^^

the 'sway' used to be in the Net weather ensemble maps- you could have the 'warmer' pterbed runs & the colder ones- but i cant remember what actually swayed them..

S

Edited January 10, 2012 by Steve Murr

[leicsnow]

Latest video update from Mark Vogan on the current model situation regarding the upcoming pattern change, wise words from this man.

I think he speaks some wise words but it seems that he treats that model run like it's 100% accurate and what is going to happen!

[SMU]

ok last one from me-

OF note the ECM shows no amplification- post 120 ( until day 10) & it was wrong for Mark vogan to use the ECM 12z in his images as the cold was not going to back west before at least day 12-

So, IF ECM outsome is to be observed- forget it game over for another 12-14 days- the patterns flatter than a witches t*t

There is still some GFS ensembles that show that the pattern is JUST amplified enough that despite the intitial ridging missing at t96/120 the overwhelming 'thrust over the pole from that monster high still manages to feed into Scandi & 'lift' the euro high-

As a consequense we get some nice undercutting charts & the potential for snow-

once again then the GFS tempts us with dangling the carrot at 140 ish & like a herd of donkies we will chase that WAA & high pressure-

You know what they say- even a blind squirrel finds his nuts now & again.........

s

[syed2878]

Hi ladies and gents. I must say i do agree with matty m. Though i cant c the charts properly i think mat's post is a sensible1. I hope i don't afend any1.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

If you've been affected by any of the issues raised in tonight's thread... The you need help. Just ignore ott posts and let the team deal with anything that needs dealing with at a reasonable hour. Right now, I'm tired and might do something rash.

[Cheese Rice]

What interests me is keeping pressure high over Norway.

Latest GFS ensembles are trending for higher pressure over NE Europe than the 12Z.

Which suggests nothing is set in stone. If the high doesn't budge then expect to a more NW/SE trajectory of lows.

12z-

18z-

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

18Z ensembles still looking reasonable for an outbreak of cold zonality.

Hopefully something better for the 0z runs.

[Zakos]

Hi ladies and gents. I must say i do agree with matty m. Though i cant c the charts properly i think mat's post is a sensible1. I hope i don't afend any1.

i personally dont want to see it where it comes to the point where people have to say "i hope i dont offend anyone" in their posts for fear of geting a negative response. Equally, i agree that snowingman's post was arrogant, propesterous, and misleading. IMO, Perhaps we, ( me included) should leave it up to the team to sort out these posts and help them by Reporting these kind of posts. Edited January 11, 2012 by Zakos

[492]

The predicted cold spell that is not going to happen according to some of the models wasn't going to happen until day 5 anyway and in 5 days time it still might happen - see UKMO 120 FAX with the hint of a block (diffluent/omega - cannot be sure yet) developing close by.

[Matty M]

The predicted cold spell that is not going to happen according to some of the models wasn't going to happen until day 5 anyway and in 5 days time it still might happen - see UKMO 120 FAX with the hint of a block (diffluent/omega - cannot be sure yet) developing close by.

There was never a predicted cold spell! The cold spell never really made it to the UK properly. Barring the 18z last night in la la land.

People must remember this!

I don't think we were led down the garden path as much as people think, I have witnessed many more cruel model cold spell defeats.

[Brum Watcher]

GFS 00z changes, the most significant one for me was them height rises towards the NE at t150 onwards till the far reaches. potential easterly again. -5 uppers from the west and east interlinking. plenty of snow chances. Short term changes minor. final answer moat positivity again is in FI. so still no clear picture. ECM will be important today aswell as ensembles.

[David-kig]

GFS 00z what a nice run indeed. shame that easterly never quite made it here. but look that that northern blocking ? nice nw-se tilt to the jet to. still seems a slight pain and very active jet? overall a good near perfect run. P.V going west. great start to a new day. lets hope ukmo and ecm follow suit.

temperatures on gfs for next look look rather low at times? plent of frost on the cards. better then rain and mild muck by any means

GFS 00z changes, the most significant one for me was them height rises towards the NE at t150 onwards till the far reaches. potential easterly again. -5 uppers from the west and east interlinking. plenty of snow chances. Short term changes minor. final answer moat positivity again is in FI. so still no clear picture. ECM will be important today aswell as ensembles.

plenty of frost next week to. i have no idea how this is going to end up. the landlady at my local were saying that someone on telly\ news of it to be colder by the end of next week???? how cold who knows

Edited January 11, 2012 by David-kig

[weathe20]

00z, changes again. Please correct if wrong..but is that a Scandi high? >

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

00z, changes again. Please correct if wrong..but is that a Scandi high? >

It is but I don't think it,s the one we want. Ie it won't drag in cold air as the centre is only a small area rather that a huge centre that can drag in air from Scandinavia to us.