Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[David-kig]

gfs ens show clearly a cooling trend next week with plenty of member -5 and below. still the odd couple below -10. the control run has it own ideas and doesnt agree with the op. fallen out it seems

to be honest though. i can't see the beast from the east happening with though's ens. if it stays below -5 then im happy

Edited January 11, 2012 by David-kig

[Paul]

Just deleted a load of posts from yesterday evening all relating to one troll like post. Please, please, please either report or ignore this type of post - reactions simply ruin the thread & give the original poster exactly what they want!

00z, changes again. Please correct if wrong..but is that a Scandi high? >

No, it's a scandi low, you're looking for oranges/yellows for high pressure

[David-kig]

ukmo from what i can see upto 120h is sightly better to then the last run. wanting to bulid a high to the n.e quicker then the 12z. not much difference from the gfs upto that point?????

Edited January 11, 2012 by David-kig

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Nearly cross model agreement for days 9 and 10 next week from the GFS and the ECM. What I have noticed is on each run the atlantic onslaught has been pushed west further each run. As things stand (probably will change) next week should feel cold with a chance, be it small of seeing a bit of snow in the wind by the end of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif day 9 ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png day 9 GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif day 10 ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png day 10 GFS

[winterof79]

There was never a predicted cold spell! The cold spell never really made it to the UK properly. Barring the 18z last night in la la land.

People must remember this!

I don't think we were led down the garden path as much as people think, I have witnessed many more cruel model cold spell defeats.

Take another peek today Matty,the models are doing their level best to bring in a battle scenario http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012011100/ECM0-240.GIF there is something brewing....lets wait and see what it is

Edited January 11, 2012 by winterof79

[Polar Continental]

Morning all, it has been interesting following the models over the last few days. Despite all the ups and downs and disagreements. I think the winds of change are upon us. This morning ECM demonstrates very well what us cold lovers need, especially in its latter stages around 192 hours.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

High pressure settling over Svalbard, followed by an easterly flow over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

It’s not going to take much to pull all that very cold air on the continent in to the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Fingers very crossed

[SMU]

ok last one from me-

OF note the ECM shows no amplification- post 120 ( until day 10) & it was wrong for Mark vogan to use the ECM 12z in his images as the cold was not going to back west before at least day 12-

So, IF ECM outsome is to be observed- forget it game over for another 12-14 days- the patterns flatter than a witches t*t

There is still some GFS ensembles that show that the pattern is JUST amplified enough that despite the intitial ridging missing at t96/120 the overwhelming 'thrust over the pole from that monster high still manages to feed into Scandi & 'lift' the euro high-

As a consequense we get some nice undercutting charts & the potential for snow-

once again then the GFS tempts us with dangling the carrot at 140 ish & like a herd of donkies we will chase that WAA & high pressure-

You know what they say- even a blind squirrel finds his nuts now & again.........

s

Morning All-

Well were off & running again after that carrot, only this time phase 2 of the cold coming west is a little closer at 120-144, however people we will not get the true cold until the atlantic jet amplifies & a wave goes SE under the block..

A nice positive present to wake up to after teetering into mild oblivion last night- also we must remember for future reference the ECm is follwing a GFS trend ( if it pans out that way)

Steve

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Sorry Paul I get irritated when people write things off.

Anayway,loads of potential this morning.ECM DOES build heights to the NE AND NW,and GFS brings a classic battleground situation which oozes snow potential as the Atlantic comes across a string block initially over Scandy,the trough disrruption then brings about a mid altantic high ridging into GReenland!!

Very busy in here again today methinks!!

Morning All-

Well were off & running again after that carrot, only this time phase 2 of the cold coming west is a little closer at 120-144, however people we will not get the true cold until the atlantic jet amplifies & a wave goes SE under the block..

A nice positive present to wake up to after teetering into mild oblivion last night- also we must remember for future reference the ECm is follwing a GFS trend ( if it pans out that way)

Steve

Steve have you seen the ECM 0Z operational?Looking GOOD!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Good agreement now between ecm and gfs in the mid range. Height forming to our north/north east and the pv moving over Canada.

Ecm from 192 is screaming cold potential!

[bluearmy]

ECM op at day 10 looking a lot like stevs's cpc 'chocolate teapot' last night!

[Zakos]

GFS upfgrades again. Jet stream is weaker and more southerly tracking. Atlantic takes longer to make inroads.Heights over the NE are significantly stronger than the 18z. Cold air signifacntly further west, -5 t850s eventually reaching the UK. The deatils are different in each run, but the arrival is being delayed at least slightly almost every run. Some say the jet is often over powered by the GFS in these situations., and I really do think this is what its doing now. ECM also significantly upgrades. Today could see some "beasterlies" in FI i believe.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Zakos

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM op at day 10 looking a lot like stevs's cpc 'chocolate teapot' last night!

Hope it comes off BA the ECM Op is oozing potential and look at that cold pool over Europe knocing on the door.(And i don't mean the -5 850HPS's that we see mid range).

[Nick F]

Corker of an arctic high building towards Svalbard on the ECM, with a little help from WAA aloft over Scandinavia, get a solid block up there which then extends west to Greenland, then it's game on to force the jet and upper cold way south. Unfortunately GFS is not showing this yet in its operationals, but keep an eye on developemnts over Svalbard, it may hold the key to where we go late Jan/early Feb

[SMU]

ECM op at day 10 looking a lot like stevs's cpc 'chocolate teapot' last night!

LOL- I dont really look at them TBH...

We have almost indentical info as them, the only thing out of it is to see what model they prefer-

but it is very much US focussed on the NOAA discussions-

Anyway- the berlin ensembles Have started crashing again-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Berlin_ens.png maybe more luck & support this time-

Also if you look at the london ones- some of the runs now stretching out that initial cold as a small shortwave undercuts a little- The surface temps now may even hover around 4/5 under the cold sry influence day 6-8

RE ridging towards iceland/ greenland-

At some point to get the correct undercut to make that cold go the final leg we will need that ridge- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=6&mode=0&carte=

run PTB 6

ECM has that canadian high neg tilted which is OK because the flow is the tilted SE on its eastern flank-

Aslo the Svalbard high is sneaking in the back door while the PV isnt looking!

the ECM 264 & 288 chart one would assume to be EPIC-

Anyway if the last 4-5 days have scored 1-3 on the net weather rampomenter then you can crank that up to 6 now as the bulk of Central Europe now looks to be set cold from the stationary chunk of PV & the svalbard high..

Can we make it the whole 9 yards & get energy going underneath.....

if so expect a rampede tonight ( or maybe even when the ECM 15 day comes out)

S

PS editing at work is a nightmare- the PC starts adding random words like amp&>?

Edited January 11, 2012 by Steve Murr

[sebastiaan1973]

Wonderfull charts this morning by EC. Look at this setting at 240h. Lots of very cold air at the Continent. A very desirable outcome.

[nick sussex]

You couldn't make it up could you! more drama today, OMG that ECM 240hrs chart is close to outstanding!

And the misery model(UKMO) says yes! This is always key in this situation, its all down to the ¨PV as it has been for the last week, if that heads west its hard to see how a cold spell wouldn't arrive soon after.

I think its going to be hard to stop expectations going through the roof today and we've been here so many times in the last week, could the models be this cruel yes!

Its all down to 144 to 168hrs, if you get trough disruption and that ridge to the ne is strong enough then that will be a pattern change as the PV heads off to bug someone else!

[VillagePlank]

Cold night Sunday/Monday in London, according to Wed GEFS 00Z ensemble runs,

First air frost this season, perhaps?

Edited January 11, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[snow drift]

You couldn't make it up could you! more drama today, OMG that ECM 240hrs chart is close to outstanding!

And the misery model(UKMO) says yes! This is always key in this situation, its all down to the ¨PV as it has been for the last week, if that heads west its hard to see how a cold spell wouldn't arrive soon after.

I think its going to be hard to stop expectations going through the roof today and we've been here so many times in the last week, could the models be this cruel yes!

Its all down to 144 to 168hrs, if you get trough disruption and that ridge to the ne is strong enough then that will be a pattern change as the PV heads off to bug someone else!

So the ECM drops the idea and then picks it up again. It just goes to show why each run should not be taken as gospel. This would also apply to the latest run but the trend is there.

[Craigers]

when the model picks up the idea and drops it, plays around with other concepts and then decide the first idea is more likely is a good positive sign! this could be the start of eye candy charts

[Tom Montalbano]

Well fascinating model watching this morning. An almighty battle ensues on the GFS Op, between the Atlantic/Greenland (purple/blue corner) as pressure rises over Arctic/Scandinavia (Green/Yellow corner), with the two slugging it out, with the Atlantic getting a very narrow points decision, at the end of the fight.

Anyway enough of the Boxing analogies.

Looking through the Ensemble members we're so close to seeing some mega easterly runs again, with just a little less pressure around the Svarlbard area, that would've been the case. It seems that the main core of the PV has just backed a little further west in the model forecasts overnight to suggest this isnt done and dusted yet.

Certainly an encouraging run from ECM too, with UKMO none too shabby either and not a million miles away from a great looking chart at t144.

I just hope we dont get stuck in a stalemate situation for days on end, if the Atlantic did break through this time at around t144/168, I dont think it would be long before a better opportunity presented itself for more substantial northern blocking.

A fascinating few days model watching awaits!

Regards,

Tom.

[nick sussex]

So the ECM drops the idea and then picks it up again. It just goes to show why each run should not be taken as gospel. This would also apply to the latest run but the trend is there.

The background signals suggested limpet high being displaced with high pressure to the ne, thats been the case for a week now, the big variable was that PV and thats still the case today.

But I agree don't take this run as gospel, detail isn't important at this stage and none of those interesting synoptics can come about if we don't get a strong enough ridge to the ne within 144hrs, this isn't about looking well into FI for signs of change, once you get low pressure developing in the northern Med and a ridge to the ne thats a good sign.

If you get an undercut at 168hrs then you're 90% of the way there.

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2012011100!!/

There are two clusters, circa 20 members are following the oper and control.

[Radiating Dendrite]

when the model picks up the idea and drops it, plays around with other concepts and then decide the first idea is more likely is a good positive sign! this could be the start of eye candy charts

Yep, this has often happened in the past.

Hopefully we can get all three singing from the same sheet in the 144 period of time.

As Nick says, if the PV does vacate over to Canada and the Svalbard High fills the gap then it would be very difficult to imagine a scenario where we do not get colder!

Some good battleground snowfalls also now showing up.

The curtain is up.............showtime!?? (unless a technical glitch ensues)!

[tinybill]

yes i know its deep f1 and it wont happen but were are my snow gear,!!!!

[nick sussex]

More good news from NOAA this morning:

TELECONNECTIONS WITH STRONG POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT

ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA RESPECTIVELY

TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FAVOR A MEAN LONGWAVE

TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER

THE SOUTHEAST DAYS 3-7. THE DETAILS OF THE TELECONNECTS VARY

SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...WITH THE NEGATIVE ANOMALY TELECONNECTING MORE

STRONGLY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE BOTH ANOMALIES

SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PACIFIC

NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ABOVE

NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA

COASTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD EVEN THROUGH

DAYS 6/7...AND CORRESPOND BETTER WITH THE SECOND SCENARIO OF

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD REMAINS QUITE HIGH...WHICH

SUGGESTS SOME CAUTION IN FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON THEIR

DETAILS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...THE

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH OF BOTH THE

OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS/ECMWF TO WARRANT EQUAL USE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS

IN CONSTRUCTING THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS FOR ALL DAYS