Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[SMU]

TOM ^^ Have a look at PTB 7

1Meter snowmangedden for the SE-

S

[Radiating Dendrite]

We have a cold snap in front of our noses (this weekend) and nobody has mentioned it, apart from me, the possible much colder pattern is very much in the balance despite some positive output this morning but within the reliable timeframe we have some cold frosty nights and chilly days which are now set in stone and anything beyond that is still on very shaky ground.

At last, a few mentions of it

We know, but an air frost does not really compare with the synoptics that could be thrown our way further down the line.

Maybe this thread should be split?

Upto 144 and past 144, may be worth a go, bit for everyone then.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[Jack Wales]

We have a cold snap in front of our noses (this weekend) and nobody has mentioned it, apart from me, the possible much colder pattern is very much in the balance despite some positive output this morning but within the reliable timeframe we have some cold frosty nights and chilly days which are now set in stone and anything beyond that is still on very shaky ground.

At last, a few mentions of it

It's not a cold snap, maybe cool in eastern areas for a day or so. I doubt I'll see frost in my locale with daytime highs across the UK of around 5C to 10C.

Look at the 850hp uppers, the -5C isotherm only skirts the eastern side of the UK for a few hours...

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Can I just remind everyone of the Model Mood Thread? You'd find it difficult to have a post deleted for being off topic in there, although I'm sure some of you could give it a good go.

Please do keep this thread for purely model-output discussion. I don't know what that actually means, but hopefully you all do.

[swilliam]

Control run is having non of it

Shows that it is still finely balanced.

But does eventually - shows we will be most unlucky not get something good (cold and snowy) out of this

[Frosty.]

We know, but an air frost does not really compare with the synoptics that could be thrown our way further down the line. Maybe this thread should be split? Upto 144 and past 144, may be worth a go, bit for everyone then.

Yes it's all relevant as the cold frosty snap is definately going to happen whereas the very cold and potentially snowy and icy spell within the next 7-10 days or later is far from nailed but certainly more of a chance than yesterday's models (ecm 12z last night)

[kold weather]

Control very much 'gets there' in the end, it just takes a 2nd bite of the cherry, which is pretty similar to the ECM in many ways as it takes 2 bites to get the job done..

[Tom Montalbano]

TOM ^^ Have a look at PTB 7

1Meter snowmangedden for the SE-

S

Hi Steve,

Yes saw that, there's a few good 'uns kickin' about. Even some of the members that arent so good early on, improve a great deal later on.

Let's keep our feet on the ground, we've been here so many times before. Steady as she goes!

Regards,

Tom

P.S Ptbs 14,15 pretty special with Scandy/Greeny combination.

[SMU]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Berlin_ens.png

yes Tom-

the important Berlin Ensembles are out- big scatter but getting colder & colder by teh day-

As soon as these become stable so will london et 'al-

S

[shedhead]

Won't verify of course, but this is what I call a pattern change... And all within 8 days!!!

Edited January 11, 2012 by shedhead

[Zakos]

After being in a positive AO state for a very, very long time now, i think the AO "switch" is about to occur and be strongly negative and prolonged. I said weks ago that the strong jet in december was a good sign for a cold sprll later on. If the jet had been weak in december, there still would have have been no noteable cold due to the cold PV. Now the PV is finally disintegrating, and the jet is running out of steam after months of being vey strong. In my opinion, everything is falling in to place for a severe cold spell. Of course, living in the UK, even with all this its still not certain , and we have no idea of the details, e.g it could be very cold, but settled with little snow. One thing i do think is that any cold will come from the east/northeast/southeast. I cant see any cold from the N/NW just yet, the PV isnt weak enough yet. GP's winter forecast is looking increasingly acurate with each passing day.

[Snowmad79]

wow would you look at that. The models all drop SM's cross polar flow and heights ridging across to Scandi knocking the PV for 6 and SW energy spewing south east of the uk! then bring it back today. You have to admit 2 things now.. this is a definitive trend that may be dropped again or prolonged even similar to last winters big event and secondly.. it would be a massive backtrack of the ECM which not far off being a stonker.

Yes its looks like there a long way to go for a proper brutal and prolonged set-up and it still in FI but something is definitely brewing.

[Tim Bland]

Good ensemble agreement on a cold spell 19th - 25th. Its also great to see the 1st -15 859hpa member for London!

Bizare update from the Meto for that time period though !?

"Into the following weekend and the second week unsettled conditions are likely to persist, with spells of cloudy and relatively mild weather with periods of rain,"

Edited January 11, 2012 by Tim Bland

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I've got to say that model outputs yesterday made one ponder but as I pm'd someone who was concerned re poor outlook, not to worry unless the picture is bleak after further 2-3 days of similar output. Here we are a new day and much improved picture with ECM very much better. We are getting there I think but it shows the short range of FI currently, watch for overall picture and not individual run, whatever it shows. i think consistency in runs will be upon us very soon.

A ramp from Shedhead.....now one should sit up!!

BFTP

Edited January 11, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

just noted that the ecm ens for london are very much cooling but certainly not frigid as the ones for de bilt were. interestingly the mean for brussels looks similar to london. now that confuses me a tad and means the mean pattern is struggling to get south or southwest (for the time being)

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

[shedhead]

I've got to say that model outputs yesterday made one ponder but as I pm'd someone who was concerned re poor outlook, not to worry unless the picture is bleak after further 2-3 days of similar output. Here we are a new day and much improved picture with ECM very much better. We are getting there I think but it shows the short range of FI currently, watch for overall picture and not individual run, whatever it shows. i think consistency in runs will be upon us very soon.

A ramp from Shedhead.....now one should sit up!!

BFTP

Agreed, I think Sun-Mon next week probably represents FI right now and what happens at that juncture will have major implications for the pattern beyond. Perhaps the models will move more and more towards 'sliders' across the coming day or two, but it really is knife edge stuff at the moment.

[nick sussex]

just noted that the ecm ens for london are very much cooling but certainly not frigid as the ones for de bilt were. interestingly the mean for brussels looks similar to london. now that confuses me a tad and means the mean pattern is struggling to get south or southwest (for the time being)

http://www.meteogrou...e-forecast.html

Yes I think thats still a hurdle to overcome, the models still keep the Azores high quite close and its whether any trough disruption can occur far enough west and dig right into Iberia there by stopping any possible link up with the high to the east.

The pattern looks reasonably solid in terms of the overall NH pattern but how far west that ridge to the ne sets up is still a bit up in the air.

The UK though does look like the battleground with troughing likely to be close by.

[snow drift]

Agreed, I think Sun-Mon next week probably represents FI right now and what happens at that juncture will have major implications for the pattern beyond. Perhaps the models will move more and more towards 'sliders' across the coming day or two, but it really is knife edge stuff at the moment.

The meto update would suggest that they see this taking a while to get anything significantly colder. Maybe they feel that the models are being a little progressive at this time. The suggestion of colder weather towards the end of the month is promising. I guess they would like to see more consistency in the output.

[Radiating Dendrite]

The meto update would suggest that they see this taking a while to get anything significantly colder. Maybe they feel that the models are being a little progressive at this time. The suggestion of colder weather towards the end of the month is promising. I guess they would like to see more consistency in the output.

They are always going to hedge their bets until nearer the time.

I think that is a safe call, as it looks like it will certainly be colder by the end of the month.

For me, I now want to see a bit of consistency between the models. Importantly, the ensembles are now trending colder, we need this to continue. The fact that some very cold runs are now appearing is always a good sign. This is something that has been missing ALL winter so far.

[weathe20]

After being in a positive AO state for a very, very long time now, i think the AO "switch" is about to occur and be strongly negative and prolonged. I said weks ago that the strong jet in december was a good sign for a cold sprll later on. If the jet had been weak in december, there still would have have been no noteable cold due to the cold PV. Now the PV is finally disintegrating, and the jet is running out of steam after months of being vey strong. In my opinion, everything is falling in to place for a severe cold spell. Of course, living in the UK, even with all this its still not certain , and we have no idea of the details, e.g it could be very cold, but settled with little snow. One thing i do think is that any cold will come from the east/northeast/southeast. I cant see any cold from the N/NW just yet, the PV isnt weak enough yet. GP's winter forecast is looking increasingly acurate with each passing day.

GP goes with cold from the N and NW.

[shedhead]

The meto update would suggest that they see this taking a while to get anything significantly colder. Maybe they feel that the models are being a little progressive at this time. The suggestion of colder weather towards the end of the month is promising. I guess they would like to see more consistency in the output.

Yes, an interesting and rather disappointing update for cold from them this morning, rather undoing the positive 6-15 from yesterday. They now seem rather bullish that the milder air will drive through, but to be honest I really don't think they have a much better chance of being right with this evolution, it's going to take another 24-48hrs yet before we or anyone else can swop would's, could's might's and maybe's for will's imho.

Edited January 11, 2012 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

A ramp from Shedhead.....now one should sit up!! BFTP

The ramp from IB this morning made me sit up more!

The overnight change in the Ecm is the biggest plus as the 12z last night was poor for a cold outcome. All the main models are now strongly indicating a much colder spell but no point discussing snow potential until we know it's 100% certain that we will get the deep cold..but the met office don't concur, surprise surprise.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Frosty039

[shedhead]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 11 January 2012 - 11:57 , said:

A ramp from Shedhead.....now one should sit up!! BFTP

As far as I'm concerned Blast, ramps belong in an old folks home. I'm simply interpreting what I see, perhaps slightly coloured by a bit of what I'd like to see, but I'm a lot more comfortable talking about cold prospects when the models actually show them.

Edited January 11, 2012 by shedhead

[weathe20]

The 06z shows the Atlantic keeping a literal foot in the door as it tries to fight the block, and that is a stalling situation that could hold for days, hence the METO update

Seems we could end up with one of those terrible 'snow north of M4' events...

[shedhead]

Seems we could end up with one of those terrible 'snow north of M4' events...

More like E of the M1 if a battleground does actually ensue, but that is just one of 3 major senario's. We could see the block hold the fort, we could see a battle somewere, or we could simply see the Atlantic calvalry riding on through. Frankly tho I wouldn't want to bet my mortgage on any of those 3 right now.

Edited January 11, 2012 by shedhead