Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[Southender]

When Mr Murr appears to throw the towel in, you know prospects aren't looking good. Say it isn't so Steve.

[chionomaniac]

I think it's no accident that the PV is super strength and has coincided with a strong Stratospheric warming event. It comes across as a strong example of dynamic equilibrium.

Nonsense Stephen.

[SMU]

I think it's no accident that the PV is super strength and has coincided with a strong Stratospheric warming event. It comes across as a strong example of dynamic equilibrium.

that is probably a physical impossibility- & not one for the model discussion thread- if you have a warming of 30/40 degrees in the stratosphere that propergates down form 10HPA to the troposhere then the net OVERALL mean zonal wind anomaly will be lower NOT higher as you intimate-

S

Edited January 10, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Cloud 10]

Evening All-

Take for example the NOAA anomaly charts- they are based off human interpretation from the models & ensemble means from models at day 10-14 that cant agree at day 4!!!

They are next to useless!!

best regards

Steve

Good post there steve,i'm assuming you have your asbestos suit at the ready regarding the last bit.

The jet seems to be taking a dive south on the 18z,possible under-cutter?

Edited January 10, 2012 by Cloud 10

[SMU]

Good post there steve,i'm assuming you have your asbestos suit at the ready regarding the last bit.

LOL-

Its all broad brush - for NH height anomalies it may be of use in the larger scale picture, but its to woolie for the UK, -

Dont get me wrong I will be here every year chirping up on the first sign of cold, sometimes we are wrong simetimes we are right ( the same as Ian is calling mild)

Calling it this time - the ridging at 130 odd looked nice but was always a tricky path - the inflection point of the jet had to be VERY sharp, & as its transpired the flow is a little less amplifed & slightly relaxed, so that small shortwave traverses east as opposed to shooting north into the pole-

Going back to the overall hemispheric picture +Ve anomlies ridging over the pole into the moscow./ svalbard region the cold will be fairly close by & any strong attenuation in the jet will support a QUICK movement west of the cold-

The NH is lining up perfect especially around the pole, we will at some point whenever the times comes need a ridge moving NE in the atlantic towards Greenland,..

S

[SP1986]

Nonsense Stephen.

Nonsense Stephen.

I said it comes across I didn't say it was.

Fantastic when people read posts in here.

ps I accept that may be incorrect.

[SMU]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012011018-0-138.png?18

Back to the models- NEWBIES might want to note a shortwave diving South/ south south west through Scandi is generally considered a good sign for a scandi high - especially when pressure +VE is piling up over svalbard-

remember though we will need a ridge towards greenland at some point...

S

[Geordiesnow]

Thats the whole point though, The drama, the frustration, the fall outs... This is not the Met Office, Its a weather forum with amazingingly enthusisatic members. Of course we should get excited by great runs... The ultimate alternative is to wait until the first snowflake lands softly on your nose. Embrace the passion,bugger caution.. just bleat when you see what you don't want to see... back to the Sauv Blanc

True but when things start to go wrong like it has done so today regarding the models have now backed the ECM trend of not having a successful link up with the Arctic high and the Azores high, the fun and excitment gets replaced with frustration and does not make the thread a good place to read. That said, we've experienced worse downgrades in the past therefore we should be used to it by now!

GFS 18Z is a bit different to the 12Z run and we have too see what develops here, it has not really trended towards the Euro's it seems as the high is knocked to the SE but it could develop potentially another scnario. I suppose whilst the Arctic high is around and whilst all the background signal is trying to favour more mid-latitude cold then we got a chance down the line.

[Matty M]

I don't mind the look of the 18z, shunts the PV well to our northwest

Edited January 10, 2012 by Matty M

[Zakos]

I don't mind the look of the 18z, shunts the PV over CAN

Yes, and the Jet is modelled to be weaker and more southerly tracking.

Arrival of Atlantic is also significantly delayed.

The initial easterly does now look unlikely, but things are really shaping up for a significant cold spell in lat jan/ feb IMO

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Saturday sunday and monday look very cold across the UK,not inc Ireland which looks quite mild in comparison due to the Atlantic influence.I'll happily take a 3 day cold interlude after the hopeless frostfree weeks of Dec.

[damianslaw]

the latter stages of the 12z naefs continue the positive trends post 20th jan. the euro high finally replaced by weak troughing and the arctic anomolies moving into the right places. the anomolys at the end of the run even manage to split the nw euro troughing from the vortex. (assumption that link up of atlantic high and arctic high through greenland would follow). there are clusters of higher heights in the north atlantic beyond the 23rd. if it weren't for the teases we've seen over the past few days, this output would seem pretty good output. the grown up way of doing this would be to ignore the runs we've seen since saturday and to tale the positives from the current trends towards a cold end to jan.

The 550mb forecasts have for a while now suggested a flow from between north and west as we go into the second half of Jan as opposed to south and west, this would suggest the jet is most likely to move on a NW-SE tilt with subsequent chances for significant scandi troughing as heights begin to build more directly to our north across the pole and towards svalbard. Your suggestion of higher heights in the north atlantic is very plausible, the PV is starting to weaken at long last and move westwards in position enabling a possible north atlantic high/svlbard/arctic high link up eventually thanks to a trigger low and a sharp movement of the trough deep into southeast europe. This is how I see things panning out next week and into the last week of Jan.

[chionomaniac]

I said it comes across I didn't say it was.

Fantastic when people read posts in here.

ps I accept that may be incorrect.

Sorry Stephen your post came across as if that was what you meant!

[Duane S.]

12z

18z

[SMU]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-13-1-96.png?12

for possibly the last time run model PTB 13 GFS 12z ensemble- this was the only was that kept the inflection point of the jet sharp so that shortwave went into the pole & the Scandi fledgling pressure ridged up & collected the polar ridge at 102-

( who remembers donkey kong on the handheld game when you had to jump & collect the key) well we missed it!

Look at the t96 chart & see how tenuous that link was & why we were talking fractions in terms of changes-

but then take that fractional difference & run it over + 1-3 days & then 5-7 days- then maybe 7-10

in the short term the Uk loses that chance of a big easterly, & 5-7 days after ( soaround 220 + ) the pattern starts to build back & there will be anotehr shot-

day 7-10 can we reach up with a ridge again?

s

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I don't mind the look of the 18z, shunts the PV well to our northwest

Maybe your'e right but it looks flatter to my eyes!!

[Matty M]

18z is a slow burner.

[Liam J]

Latest video update from Mark Vogan on the current model situation regarding the upcoming pattern change, wise words from this man.

Edited January 10, 2012 by Liam J

[Duane S.]

+228, Better looking Actic high, ridging about to take place?

and then...

An improvement for sure I'd say.

Jet certainly looks more favourable late on...

12z

18z

[nick sussex]

OMG the PV has actually moved away in the higher resolution output!

As that wonderful gospel song goes Oh Happy Day!

I think we can see what could crop up if the PV does indeed decide to head west, if the patterns amplified sufficiently upstream then a low will likely head se and hopefully this time the Arctic high will move in and finally deliver a pattern change.

After a few frosty days we want rid of that high over Europe as quickly as possible, its never going to deliver anything in terms of snow and the real change can only come once that PV relocates much further west.

[SMU]

Latest video update from Mark Vogan on the current model situation regarding the upcoming pattern change, wise words from this man.

I have to be frank--- that video is pretty low level .....- Im not knocking the actual bloke- its not personnal- but he spends 9 minutes going on about the deep trough cant go away & look for it moving west then at 8:43 his last chart shows the trough blown away back to moscow with an overunning pattern.. it isnt going ot back west unless theres a wedge of high pressure over the top moving that circulation-

Also a cold greenland has a very low teleconnection correlation to a greenland high -

Most weather enthusiast on here could whip something up better than that- perhaps I should bring back the model tracker!

he makes some valid points however theres nothing in it that hasnt already been written on here day in day out---

S

Edited January 10, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Jason M]

At six hours we have this.......

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0

At 384 hours we have this.......

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

Fair to say, another poor run. That said it is only one run and fortunately this will be gone by the morning

I have a feeling that there will be some twists and turns yet!

Jason

[noel]

I have to be frank--- that video is pretty low level .....- Im not knocking the actual bloke- its not personnal- but he spends 9 minutes going on about the deep trough cant go away & look for it moving west then at 8:43 his last chart shows the trough blown away back to moscow with an overunning pattern.. it isnt going ot back west unless theres a wedge of high pressure over the top moving that circulation-

Also a cold greenland has a very low teleconnection correlation to a greenland high -

Most weather enthusiast on here could whip something up better than that- perhaps I should bring back the model tracker!

S

yes Steve a lot of us quiet watchers of the model watch would love to see you do your model tracker, you did a great job last time

[Duane S.]

At six hours we have this.......

http://www.meteociel...p?&ech=6&mode=0

At 384 hours we have this.......

http://www.meteociel...&ech=384&mode=0

Fair to say, another poor run. That said it is only one run and fortunately this will be gone by the morning

I have a feeling that there will be some twists and turns yet!

Jason

Poor in terms of cold/snow delivered, much better in terms of the PV backing away westwards from G/L and allowing the Arctic high to position itself more favourably. I may be in the minority but this run is the best of the day in terms of potential.

[Tim Bland]

Re Mark vogans video...

I'm still waiting for the cold spell he predicted to start on 15th December! It's all well and good having that cold troughing over Easter Europe but we need a trigger to send it our way. He keeps saying look east but surely we have given up on the easterly now! Cold zonality is our best net before the allutian ridge builds back after day 10