Model Output Discussion - January 11th.

[Bristawl Si]

Good news on the UKMO, but how many times are we going to be told the change is coming?

I've lost track now! "Pattern change coming", "period between 7th and 10th Jan is the game changer", blah! blah!

Nobody knows - models are going from one scenario to another, then reversing back to what they showed a few days before. Potential seems to constantly shift to +240. To balance that i think GP's forecast seemed to have more confidence in late Jan/early Feb for a change.

But if the HP settles over the UK, we'll be in another borefest, unless you're into frost and fog. Yawn!

[DubWeatherAddict]

I'll have one of these please and a bag of chips.

[mulzy]

Awful esembles! Just about all 20 pepetrations are poor.

Hopefully the ECM will show us a good run tonight and come up trumps, really showing how fickle the gfs can be

Outrageous that the GEFS have started committing these atrocities

Edited January 12, 2012 by mulzy

[Zenarcher]

Review on the weather models this morning,

GFS

Seems to have better model agreement this morning so far. Looking at Tuesday next week it does have more high pressure over the UK making these Atlantic lows head much further North and all the models back this up although not by 100% but they have the same idea. At 144 hours is where we are left in the unknown. The GFS wants to build up high pressure over the UK for next Wednesday but only the GEM model shows something a bit similar to this. After Wednesday into next weekend the GFS brings more high pressure in again we are seeing changes around the 20th of January. Into FI it looks mild and settled to begin with but it does show colder weather set in around the 26th of January.

ECM

It has good model agreement to 120 hours after this it does lose support but NOGAPS and UKMO do show something along its line. For the fifth run in a row the ECM seems very confident in a change again with the date being 19th to 20th January now 7 to 8 days away. For later next week it wants to bring in high pressure to the Atlantic something its previous runs have shown which eventually leads to a blocking giving the UK cold snowy weather, it's charts this morning are very good. The ECM has been very consistent over the last 2 days now this cannot be ignored.

GEM

Up to 144 hours it wants to take the path the GFS took but afterwards it starts to follow the ECM's idea of things however deep into its FI it doesn't lead to a blocking just mild settled weather.

NOGAPS

Similar to GEM at first follows the GFS but later wants to move towards the ECM's idea. Its deep FI doesn't go far out enough for us to know but could go with the GEM either mild settled weather or the ECM's which is cold and snowy.

UKMO

Supports the ECM the most up to 144 hours although there are some differences it doesn't have too much high pressure over the UK and the low in the Atlantic a bit deeper.

Today to Monday Summary: We will see good settled weather as high pressure will be over the UK at the time. It will get colder over the next few days, the Met Office have an alert out for this check HERE. Sunday could be a bit windy across Western area's and sill remaining a bit cold for most. On Monday we go back to settled conditions.

Tuesday to Thursday Summary: High pressure and settled weather will remain for most of the UK but Northern Scotland might get some wet and windy at weather times during Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday getting colder in the North and a bit unsettled meanwhile the South still settled but perhaps getting a bit colder.

Beyond Thursday Next Week: Still unsure on what will happen the models still seem confident on a change around this time. It was proven last night and again this morning this change could either bring settled and mild weather or cold and snowy weather. The ECM has been the most consistent model lately in the longer range and does show the best chances of colder weather at the moment.

REMINDERS: Feelings and non model output posts in HERE and feel free to give the chat room a try found at the top of the page menu or if you can't be bothered looking here's the LINK.

[johnholmes]

If we look at the less volatile outputs, so excluding the 2x or 4x daily synoptic outputs what has been the overall pattern being suggested for 7-20 days down the line?

A lot to look at and its still not totally clear but to me a more reliable barometer (if that is the correct term?) certainly compared to the ups and downs that fill this thread hour after hour.

I'll put together a pdf-NOT a forecast but a summary of what these longer term signals are showing, today and over the past 3-5 days. Folk can then make up their own minds as to what they feel is going to happen.

But then I can't resist having a stab at the weather that MIGHT occur after going through the various predicts so for the less experienced model watchers I wil lgive my view at the end.

May take a little while to put the pdf together.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Nick UKMO looks subtly better at 120 to me. If this is the start of it coming on board I wouldn't be surprised to see an acceleration of colder synoptics developing. I don't mean within 5 days a freeze will be upon us but a big move forward. TRhats 3 runs in a row now by ECM where we see a chance of major cold push coming, are seeing the consistency needed now? Is the penny dropping? I am pretty pleased with the way the output is developing and progress and the change is IMO already underway.

IMHO I see a 1986 scenario developing here.

BFTP

Yes blast I thought that too loking at the charts that the similarity with late Jan 1986 is very similar - this was followed by a very cold February which backs up GP's thoughts

EWS

[Nick F]

Although I'm not totally discounting the GFS operationals, because they don't show us what we want to see, looking at the 06z ensemble mean for the 8-10 day range, there does seem to be a signal for a mean ridge over the mid-Atlantic perhaps ridging further north with help of a mean deep trough over eastern N America, with a mean trough to our NE and east with cold arctic air continuing to pile south across eastern Europe/western Russia.

So for us, perhaps a northwesterly feed eventually if the high retrogreeses a little. And if we can get the PV to fragment and see the mid-Atlantic high link up with the high pressure over the Barents Sea, then perhaps a change in fortunes maybe in the offing, this probably the most likely scenario to develop for us get at deep cold, though out of reach for now.

[nick sussex]

Judging by the UKMO further outlook they expect some trough disruption and a stronger ridge to the ne,this goes against the ECM operational output as thats already mixed out any cold before the precip arrives.

You can see here the UKMO raw output:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Even this looks hard pressed to deliver even transient snowfall although its by far the best output of any of the operational runs at that timeframe, if you want the quickest route to what the ECM is showing in its later output start hoping that the models follow this trend.

[KTtom]

Interesting to see that the Met Office updated forecast is a world away from the 06Z GFS! They predict rain preceeded by sleet and snow crossing the country mid week followed by colder weather with wintry showers..more akin to ECM?

[Tim Bland]

Meto seem to be siding with GFS in their long range outlook. Time is ticking on this winter and ive got a bad feeling to be honest.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

I've lost track now! "Pattern change coming", "period between 7th and 10th Jan is the game changer", blah! blah!

Nobody knows - models are going from one scenario to another, then reversing back to what they showed a few days before. Potential seems to constantly shift to +240. To balance that i think GP's forecast seemed to have more confidence in late Jan/early Feb for a change.

But if the HP settles over the UK, we'll be in another borefest, unless you're into frost and fog. Yawn!

I can understand your frustration however if you stand back and analyze things - the cold spell is starting today but nobody notices - based on ECM next 3-4 days cold and frosty for many places, www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif then the following 2-3 days milder as fronts cross us http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif followed by 2-3 days of much colder conditions with snow http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif-

if the charts went out further than 10 days with the projected set up there is the liklihood of further cold and snowy weather as that pattern won't just change overnight

The mild blip in the middle is required to get the favoured synoptices in palce for later

EWS

[Frosty.]

I think the Ecm has brought us the closest yet to a pattern change, yesterday it was in the T+216 to T+240 range but this morning it was down to T+168 hours, the ecm evolution appears to be a fairly no nonsense transition whereas the Gfs 00z makes a meal of it with several failed attemps before it gets it right.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Frosty039

[Alex]

Yes blast I thought that too loking at the charts that the similarity with late Jan 1986 is very similar - this was followed by a very cold February which backs up GP's thoughts

EWS

I'm not sure GP said a very cold February just an increased chance of a below avg month this doesn't necessarily mean very cold and snowy as some ppl seem to think.

The models this morning are definitely still unsure in the medium to longer range. I see NAO is expected to become positive again before another dip later.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

I think until blocking occurs over Greenland or to the south then we may have an issue from prolonged cold as the Atlantic will be able to push more easily through.

I wonder what peoples thoughts are of a repeat of the colder spell in Feb 2005 as we may end up with something similar!

[KTtom]

Meto seem to be siding with GFS in their long range outlook. Time is ticking on this winter and ive got a bad feeling to be honest.

Can you back this statement up with your thoughts? I can't see anything in their output which resembles the GFS?

[nick sussex]

I think the Ecm has brought us the closest yet to a pattern change, yesterday it was in the T+216 to T+240 range but this morning it was down to T+168 hours, the ecm evolution appears to be a fairly no nonsense transition whereas the Gfs 00z makes a meal of it with several failed attemps before it gets it right but the ecm this morning would bring a similar cold and snowy blast to december 2010.

Can you delete that last sentence please Frosty?

Thats liable to snowball into a frenzy of excitement in here and personally I'm not convinced of either the 216 or 240hrs, we need the troughing dropping down further east other wise if that remains slow moving its going to send all the cold into the Atlantic.

Of course its miles better than the GFS but I'm suffering from model fatigue and a generally cynical attitude to anything shown by the ECM in its later outputs.

My attitude may improve when we get cross model agreement shown within 144hrs for a pattern change that can last, until then I'm reserving judgement.

[Random Images]

I would say Posts 266 and 267 are the best examples of why the average punter who looks in here for help in finding out what the weather might be like in a few days time get so confused. Take a look at them.

[Bristawl Si]

I can understand your frustration however if you stand back and analyze things - the cold spell is starting today but nobody notices - based on ECM next 3-4 days cold and frosty for many places, www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif then the following 2-3 days milder as fronts cross us http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif followed by 2-3 days of much colder conditions with snow http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif-

if the charts went out further than 10 days with the projected set up there is the liklihood of further cold and snowy weather as that pattern won't just change overnight

The mild blip in the middle is required to get the favoured synoptices in palce for later

EWS

My frustrationis more to do with forecasting computer models to be fair. I guess it's a really profitable 'cottage' industry, along with weather forecasting in general.

As for the cold snap about to 'hit' us - hmm, more like an average spell of weather i'd think for mid-Jan - maybe a slight dip below temp wise.

Plus, i see you've posted ECM charts - just one model amongst the numbers doing the global rounds these days.

I'm sure we'll have a week of colder weather with snow at some point in the next 4 weeks - maybe like the 10 days in Feb 09 down here - but i won't be having a decent bet on it that's for sure.

[Heisenberg]

Can you delete that last sentence please Frosty?

Thats liable to snowball into a frenzy of excitement in here and personally I'm not convinced of either the 216 or 240hrs, we need the troughing dropping down further east other wise if that remains slow moving its going to send all the cold into the Atlantic.

Of course its miles better than the GFS but I'm suffering from model fatigue and a generally cynical attitude to anything shown by the ECM in its later outputs.

My attitude may improve when we get cross model agreement shown within 144hrs for a pattern change that can last, until then I'm reserving judgement.

Hi Nick,

this confuses me "generally cynical attitude to anything shown by the ECM" as I thought the ECM had been pretty consistent over the last few days??

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick,

this confuses me "generally cynical attitude to anything shown by the ECM" as I thought the ECM had been pretty consistent over the last few days??

Yes it did this a week ago for a few days then dropped the cold idea, just ignore me I'm rather grumpy and tired!

Until the GFS comes on board and no matter how much I criticize that model we can't ignore it, yes NOAA ditched its operational output past day 4 this morning but we need to see that the UKMO and the ECM in agreement at 144hrs.

At that point the chance of a change is much better but until then its just potential and nothing more, anyway I'll go away and take a happy pill and hope to return in a better frame of mind!

I disagree that the cold would be going into the Atlantic - we had all this prior to the December 2010 cold spell (the second one) when people said that you would need be on a boat West of Ireland to see snow and that the trough must be further East etc.. it was all nonsense.

Theres a difference between that chart and the set up in December, the ECM is a good chart just that if you don't get enough forcing from the north to sink it you will end up with the slow moving trough over the UK, and since when have you suddenly jumped on the snow train.?

Tonight Matthew I'm going to be a snow lover, oh tomorrow I'm going to drone on about the large teapot zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Make your mind up and stop annoying me, I just said I was in a crap mood!

Whats going on with this changing of my term to teapot, its the Mod Winter, is this suddenly now a swear word! lol

Edited January 12, 2012 by nick sussex

[Harsh Climate]

This chart says it all really!

The gfs has no idea what will happen regarding the northern and eastern blocking.

[SMU]

Nick the UKMO 144 is excellent today-

ECM not bad-

the 06z suite- well its the GFS 06z- the most loathed run of teh day with its usual attempts to resolve northern blocking end in the usual outcomes of the overrunning pattern-

About as accurate as PWSolutions forecasts!

I will try & punt out a post at 330 just before the PM runs- but ever so slowley we are getting there- Remember 2/3 bites is what it usually takes to get the Cold from eastern Europe > to Central Europe> to Western europe & the UK being th elast along the line....

S

[January Snowstorm]

My analysis of where we are at is follows:

1) Nothing remotely exciting for at least another 7 days. Not always mild of course but celebrating a frost in mid Jan should really be kept quiet.

2) GFS showing a near miss scenario in FI.

3) ECM showing a clear pattern change to something much colder, though this is also in FI

4) Background signals improving all the time with the promise of something much better.

I think to summarise the above the chance of a cold spell before the end of January is 50/50 with no likely clear winner in the models as of yet.

February is still looking like our best shot at something much better and has solid backing from strat warmings, weakening PV anyway at that time of year etc etc. I would rate a cold February as 70/30 chance of happening.

Compared to the last 2 Winters it has been very different and in my opinion no matter what happens from 10 days time Winter 11/12 will go down in records as being mild and indeed if Feb doesn't see some decent cold it could go down as one of the mildest on record.

[SMU]

Judging by the UKMO further outlook they expect some trough disruption and a stronger ridge to the ne,this goes against the ECM operational output as thats already mixed out any cold before the precip arrives.

You can see here the UKMO raw output:

http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

Even this looks hard pressed to deliver even transient snowfall although its by far the best output of any of the operational runs at that timeframe, if you want the quickest route to what the ECM is showing in its later output start hoping that the models follow this trend.

If there was a 168 I would expect some energy underneath at 168 & lots of WAA towards svalbard....

S

[Snowmadsam]

Nick the UKMO 144 is excellent today-

ECM not bad-

the 06z suite- well its the GFS 06z- the most loathed run of teh day with its usual attempts to resolve northern blocking end in the usual outcomes of the overrunning pattern-

About as accurate as PWSolutions forecasts!

I will try & punt out a post at 330 just before the PM runs- but ever so slowley we are getting there- Remember 2/3 bites is what it usually takes to get the Cold from eastern Europe > to Central Europe> to Western europe & the UK being th elast along the line....

S

and when that happens watch this forum fill up :lol:

Ecm +240 looked good but as usual quite far away -_-

Edited January 12, 2012 by Snowmadsam

[nick sussex]

Nick the UKMO 144 is excellent today-

ECM not bad-

the 06z suite- well its the GFS 06z- the most loathed run of teh day with its usual attempts to resolve northern blocking end in the usual outcomes of the overrunning pattern-

About as accurate as PWSolutions forecasts!

I will try & punt out a post at 330 just before the PM runs- but ever so slowley we are getting there- Remember 2/3 bites is what it usually takes to get the Cold from eastern Europe > to Central Europe> to Western europe & the UK being th elast along the line....

S

Yes Steve the UKMO is the pick of the output and it seems looking at their outlook they've gone with its trend. If the ECM and GFS come up with that tonight then it would certainly be a big positive for a change.